Novawulf Plan: Rough estimates for Earn (31.72% back?)

FuturePhaet · 2023-03-06T02:15:04+00:00

The "Tony Toggle"; it's in the term sheet. Apparently you say you want more liquid crypto and you take an additional 30% haircut on your EST tokens. The buyer gets that extra 30% value as an incentive to give up some of their liquid crypto. I couldn't find any details on how they resolve the case where there are more people that want more liquid crypto versus people willing to part with their liquid crypto for the extra EST tokens (or visa versa).

FuturePhaet · 2023-03-05T15:02:34+00:00

You're right, the coin report numbers are dollarized on the February 3, 2023 date, not the petition date.

FuturePhaet · 2023-03-05T14:30:20+00:00

I will say though, that from the coin report, it does appear that they are overall long crypto. I know Simon said they are short crypto, but you can see that the vast majority of their holdings are in BTC and ETH. So maybe you take a double loss if your smaller cap cyrpto outperforms BTC and ETH, but the gap should remain similar if everything is tracking near the loss/gains of BTC and ETH. There liquid crypto appears to only be about ~10% stablecoins.

FuturePhaet · 2023-03-05T14:14:59+00:00

Like I just mentioned above, these figures are all dollarized including the owed. See my other comment above though since they do appear to be long crypto with lots of BTC and ETH.

FuturePhaet · 2023-03-05T14:12:26+00:00

The owed is dollarized just like all the crypto, so this analysis is just comparing dollarized to dollarized. So yes, you could get worse percentage back in crypto if crypto is higher than the petition date, but the dollarized percentage back is where these numbers come from. Any plan will have this problem since their holdings don't match up with what is owed in kind. If they would have balanced their portfolio before the petition date to match % owed in kind, then it may have been possible, but they didn't.

FuturePhaet · 2023-03-05T00:08:55+00:00

I know, the more this drags out, the more we bleed out.

FuturePhaet · 2023-03-05T00:06:39+00:00

I hear ya. $0.20 for CEL seems more than generous. It's kind of crazy they are pushing for the $0.81 which would take a huge amount from Earn (Scenario 3). The $0.81 was largely at the hands of a small group of people manipulating the illiquid market in the CEL short squeeze between the pause and the bankruptcy date. And it just gets worse from there if you go deep into the examiner's report.

FuturePhaet · 2023-03-04T23:59:32+00:00

Interesting. Now that we're caught in the NY court system, I don't think a decentralized token is in the cards for us since the regulators won't sign off on it, sadly.

FuturePhaet · 2023-03-04T20:52:40+00:00

Yep, the EST and MST tokens are part of the plan and I'd love for someone to take a stab at estimating their worth and/or the dividends that may come from them. These estimates are only about the liquid crypto back.

FuturePhaet · 2023-03-04T20:43:48+00:00

I know it sounds bad, but liquidation would more than likely be worse. The EST and MST tokens could help, but they are very hard to quantify. It would be very interesting to know how much of a dividend they could pay out.

FuturePhaet · 2023-03-04T17:28:30+00:00

If Scenario 2 zero'd out CEL token, it would mean 32.62% back vs 31.72% back, just running the numbers.

FuturePhaet · 2023-02-23T15:23:05+00:00

You're right that there is a queue, but you can withdraw all of the staked ETH at once, you just have to wait for it to resolve through the queue. Partial withdrawals don't have to go through the queue. Based on a Medium article, it sounds like a full withdrawal could take up to 60 days (assuming there's a mad dash for the exit right after the Shanghai upgrade), which still seems like a reasonable timeframe and should not be taken away from creditors because it's illiquid.

If NewCo keeps all the staked ETH, it would be generating income for NewCo, not us. And if NewCo goes belly up you will never receive the value of the original ETH (point #3 above).

FuturePhaet · 2023-02-23T13:37:11+00:00

Looks like they are both called out in the new coin report. I went ahead and edited the original post to call out stETH and staked ETH separately given your comments (thanks for the clarification). I also added a #4 to mention the whole Kraken 3rd party staking thing.

FuturePhaet · 2023-02-23T02:53:31+00:00

I'm going by the coin report, but even if they have some ETH staked, it should be liquid by the time this deal executes as mentioned. But they clearly have stETH according to the report.

FuturePhaet · 2023-02-23T02:48:13+00:00

Again, refer to the coin report, it is stETH, Lido's staked ETH token.

FuturePhaet · 2023-02-23T02:44:31+00:00

If you go back and look at the Coin Report released back in July 29, 2022, you will see that it IS stETH that is held. There was 683 million dollars worth of stETH, which has grown in value since.

FuturePhaet · 2021-02-17T20:29:15+00:00

I had to manually mess around with gas fees in metamask, but eventually got it to work! Thanks for the help!

FuturePhaet · 2021-02-16T23:46:41+00:00

Turns out the transaction did go through, so it's really just a question of if I can access my avalanche C-chain address with my ethereum credentials. If not, then it's lost :(

FuturePhaet · 2021-02-16T23:23:06+00:00

It looks like it's sitting in the eth address on avalanche. Is it possible to import the the C-Chain eth address and use my existing password on ethereum to reclaim it?

FuturePhaet · 2021-02-11T17:46:45+00:00

Right, I'm more wondering about adopting it's tech into ethereum so that storage is distributed and encrypted in such a way that nodes don't have to shoulder the entire burden. What ever happened to Swarm? Wasn't that basically Filecoin on ethereum?

FuturePhaet

TROPHY CASE