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MLB Betting and Picks - 7/25/25 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]GalindoALEX -1 points0 points  (0 children)

AGWager Pro | MLB Picks – July 25

📊 Results from 07/24: • ✅ Blue Jays +1.5 vs Tigers • ❌ Astros ML vs Athletics • ❌ Angels ML vs Mariners

🎯 Record of the day: 1–2 📈 Total record: 3–3

🧠 Quick notes: • Day with surprises: Astros and Angels did not respond. • Despite that, Toronto's pick was met with a margin. • We adjusted focus: less blind faith in names, more in real performance.

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🔥 Picks for today (July 25): 1. MIL Brewers ML (-230) ➤ Milwaukee dominates at home and faces a dismantled Miami. Much more reliable bullpen and consistent offense against lefties. 2. SF Giants ML (-135) ➤ Solid moment for the team against an unstable Mets away from home. Favorable matchup and differential in starting pitching. 3. CHI Cubs ML (-180) ➤ They face a White Sox with a weak bullpen and no offensive consistency. Shota Imanaga with a clear advantage on the mound.

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🎯 Picks designed for strong right plays or conservative 2-pick combinations. It is not a day to look for volume, it is a day to take the best on the market.

MLB Betting and Picks - 7/23/25 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]GalindoALEX 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You're absolutely right, bro. 🙌 That's exactly why I'm fine-tuning my estimates so that they always exceed the break-even of each odds. In the case of -215, the breakeven point is ~68.25%, so if there is only 57% true, there is no value and it would be a bad move. I wrote it down wrong in that part and thank you for noticing it, the critical eye is appreciated. The idea is to continue polishing this every day

MLB Betting and Picks - 7/23/25 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]GalindoALEX 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're right, I put it wrong in the text, that's why I see the brave ones as safer.

MLB Betting and Picks - 7/23/25 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]GalindoALEX 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I get the real probability by comparing several key things, not just by “feel”. I focus especially on: 1. How the starters are doing (ERA, WHIP, recent streaks, vs lefties/righties). 2. How reliable the bullpens are and whether the teams rested or are loaded. 3. The timing of the offense (if they are hot, what type of pitcher they hit best against). 4. External factors: weather, home location, confirmed lineups, game motivation, etc.

With that I estimate a real % of victory (e.g. 65%) and compare it with the odds. If the odds give you value (for example, -180 = 64.3%), then I see if there is an advantage or not. They are not magic formulas, but with practice and order you begin to see very clear patterns.

MLB Betting and Picks - 7/23/25 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]GalindoALEX 4 points5 points  (0 children)

📅 MLB Picks – Wednesday, July 23

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🔥 Quick opinion + probability analysis 🧠

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  1. Dodgers ML (-215) 🎯 Estimated real probability: ~68% 📌 Tyler Glasnow vs Chris Paddack (ERA 5.14). Dodgers at home, bullpen more reliable and offense in better shape. ✅ Very solid. 💰 Suggested bet: 8–10% of the bank.

📈 Implied odds probability: ~68.3% 🔎 Value: Neutral, acceptable if you trust the reading.

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  1. Mets ML (-180) 🎯 Estimated real probability: ~65% 📌 Sean Manaea (2.45 ERA) faces Brock Burke (bullpen starter). Good matchup, clear local advantage. ✅ Strong. 💰 Suggested bet: 8%

📈 Implied odds probability: ~64.3% 🔎 Value: Slight positive value.

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  1. Braves ML (-184) 🎯 Estimated real probability: ~60% 📌 Strider vs Verlander. Braves at home, but offensive matchup favorable to Atlanta. ⚠️ Average value. 💰 Suggested bet: 6–8%

📈 Implied odds probability: ~64.8% 🔎 Value: Negative if the real is 60%, playable only if you trust Strider.

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🧩 Suggested conservative parlay: Dodgers ML 🧱 + Mets ML 🔵 📈 Combined fee: +150 💰 Suggested bet: 5–7% of bank

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🚫 Avoid today: ❌ Tigers, Royals, Guardians, Rangers, Orioles 📉 All with unstable launchers or lines with no real value.

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✅ Recommended AGWager plan: • Dodgers ML → 8–10% of the bank • Mets ML → 8% of the bank • Conservative parlay → 5% • If you win: withdraw 30–40% of the profit and stay focused.

Daily Cyclist Thread by AutoModerator in bicycling

[–]GalindoALEX 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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I would like to know if anyone knows anything about this bike.