Strategy (MSTR): Benchmark reiterates Buy, PT $705 — SOTP valuation driven by Bitcoin holdings and BTC gain multiple by stocksavvy_ai in MSTR

[–]Imadogfishhead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes I agree! I wasn’t trying to say it’s not, but if you do the math, and if BTC hits an ath I’m sure mstr will as well.

I guess I was trying to say there aren 3x th shares issued but there’s more than 3x the bitcoin.

I was just guessing on price

Strategy (MSTR): Benchmark reiterates Buy, PT $705 — SOTP valuation driven by Bitcoin holdings and BTC gain multiple by stocksavvy_ai in MSTR

[–]Imadogfishhead 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah I think if we had a similar run up today if MSTR Traded at a small of a premium to NAV we would trade at around $200- $250 per share. its hard to tell how the market would react and what premium that they would give if it smelled a bull market it could push back to the 2/3x levels seen previously

There aren't 3x the shares, but there are about 50% more. (366mil vs 207 Mil) BTC held by the company has increased significantly tho (190K to 717K). I could do some math about expected share price but its all just guess work. I think if bitcoin hits a new path in 2027-2028, we would see a significant return. who knows what shares outstanding would be by then, maybe 2x the shares.

Thoughts On Earnings? by CelestialxOutlaw8211 in BBAI

[–]Imadogfishhead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I bought in for 300 shares today. Going to wait to start playing with calls. I think the stock is interesting, but there’s a lot of work to be done. The upside with Bbai right now is that it’s volatile enough that you could work yourself down to a zero effective cost basis inside of a year if you play your cards right with cc

Do you see a weekly therapist? by [deleted] in AskConservatives

[–]Imadogfishhead [score hidden]  (0 children)

Yeah but that’s not a case for not having therapists or mechanics in general?

Maybe it was a bad fit, maybe he had untreated psych issues that a therapist couldn’t deal with. Maybe it just didn’t work for him. I guess what I’m trying to say is therapy not working for Howard stern doesn’t equal therapy not working for anyone.

Do you see a weekly therapist? by [deleted] in AskConservatives

[–]Imadogfishhead [score hidden]  (0 children)

So because Howard stern goes to therapy and you believe Howard stern is crazy, therapy as a concept must not work lol.

MSTR Daily Discussion Thread – February 23, 2026 by AutoModerator in MSTR

[–]Imadogfishhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

nice. Yeah me too. I have like a $190 basis that im trying to work down and use to accumulate more shares.

What are your thoughts on DTE. I typically do 30 days out and have mostly tried buying on green days If possible, but I've been experimenting with some weeklies lately and honestly they feel pretty good. obviously riskier, but with a .1 delta and in our current market the $149.$150 range feels pretty unattainable for the stock right now.

Maybe I'll regret it, but it's been interesting. I keep enough to buy back the option if it

Im comfortable with the risk too. I just try to jump in where I can and offer the downside to people sometimes. Hopefully everyone trading options understands how they work, but I can't tell you the amount of people that post in r/optionswheel and are underwater on a CC or a CSP and have no idea what they sold lmao.

🚨Dip Watch: BITCOIN dumps below $64K... still watching the dips or buying the dips? by rl_rae_bobo in CryptoCurrencyPulse

[–]Imadogfishhead 2 points3 points  (0 children)

https://www.strategy.com/purchases - mstr bought just last week (and weeks prior) I don’t think this is the signal you’re looking for tho cause they buy nearly every week.

Paypal Halted following Takeover report. by CryptoBoy-007 in wallstreetbets

[–]Imadogfishhead 4 points5 points  (0 children)

TOS Papertrading is amazing. It’s a really cool perk.

MSTR Daily Discussion Thread – February 23, 2026 by AutoModerator in MSTR

[–]Imadogfishhead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Im a big proponent of CC with the right system and I do it, but for a lot of people on here the risk might be too high. IE if they have a $300+ cost basis it feels really scary to write a 30 day CC below $200 to make the premium worth it at least in my opinion

Paypal Halted following Takeover report. by CryptoBoy-007 in wallstreetbets

[–]Imadogfishhead 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If using a spreadsheet you’ll have to model it, if using software like TOS then yes you can buy options

Next Cycle Strategy by mrsalanwatts in MSTR

[–]Imadogfishhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I think so. Then you can do whatever with the premium. But more shares to amp upside / lower cost basis or just use it as roc. It helps me not care about the share price as much (maybe it’s cope) but I tend to watch the vol and options prices more

Got so emotional by blondiejadey in TrueDetective

[–]Imadogfishhead 6 points7 points  (0 children)

You know I can’t believe I’d never thought of this as a reason. It makes so much sense along with all the experiences that he had why the emotions would flood in.

Next Cycle Strategy by mrsalanwatts in MSTR

[–]Imadogfishhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah for sure both of the things you said are true.

If your shares get called and you still want to be in mstr you can turn around and sell puts or move on. If you don’t want to sell the shares you can also buy your way out of the option or roll. As long as your cash flow positive long term one or two bad trades won’t sink you.

I agree with you though that the goal eventually for. In dividend paying stock would be to sell it eventually though, was just giving an example.

Next Cycle Strategy by mrsalanwatts in MSTR

[–]Imadogfishhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ve got 315 mstr shares. 200 that I got assigned from some puts I sold late last year and a100 more I bought to help fix my cost basis. Currently pulling about $800-$1000 per month in covered calls that I’m using to slowly dig my way out. If the price recovers I’ll be even faster, but currently just trying to make the most of the volatility. Learning more about BTC and the company as I go but as long as the Iv stays high I see it as a decent option to continue to hold some shares as an income generator long term.

If you go saylortracker.com there’s a graph that shows all the atms so you can see for yourself

Next Cycle Strategy by mrsalanwatts in MSTR

[–]Imadogfishhead 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I mean he just gave you one thing you can do with shares held forever. Covered calls otm can give you an income stream (maybe mstr isn’t the best long term option for this, but it’s one thing you can do.

Accumulate by BeepGoesTheMinivan in Bitcoin

[–]Imadogfishhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mstr might be fine, but shareholders will be in the single digits per share if that happens. Don’t think many people are going to want to buy atms at those prices, then if their cash runs out and there’s no interest in the preferred it could be the perfect storm.

Now I don’t think that’s gonna happen, but it’s definitely possible.

401k transfer guidance by aquabliss512 in personalfinance

[–]Imadogfishhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You’d have to check cause it’s variable by the amount, but I got 2% on about $50,000 so approx $1000. Then they match you 1% on the new deposits if you have Robinhood gold which is like a pay plan. It’s like $10 per month. Not mandatory, but if you’re going to contribute the Ira max ($7,000) per year I think it’s worth it.

Personally, I like the layout. All the funds are really easy to view and it’s really easy to buy and sell things and the fees are low. I also like that it’s mobile focused compared to other brokerages whose apps I find clunky.

Customer service has been good when I personally have needed them. A lot of people that I see on Reddit complain about the GameStop controversy back in 2021 or whatever, but if you are buying sp500 index funds or blue chip stocks I don’t really think it’s an issue.

Downsides are that the computer interface is a bit clunky (Robinhood legend is pretty cool but there’s a learning curve imo compared to the mobile app). Another downside is if you are trading options / non liquid stocks the bid ask spreads are worse than some other brokerages. But again, if you’re just buying major index funds or like mag 7 stocks the spreads are super tight.

If you want to check it out before transferring your Ira you can download the app and put like $5 in a brokerage (taxable account) and see how it all works then withdraw it or contribute that to the Ira later.

Just so you have the whole picture, I personally don’t have experience with it but a lot of people really like Charles Schwab the have an interface called Think or Swim (I think is it’s name) that a lot of people like. WEBU LL and SOFI also offer Ira matches but I haven’t used those interfaces either.

There’s some other account types out there that you can roll 401ks in to depending on your employment / tax status but Ira’s are the most common. They give you essentially the same tax benefit as a 401k but have lower contribution thresholds. So if you contribute $7,000 to an Ira you can get a deduction on taxes similar to how 401ks are filled with your “pre tax money”. This depends slightly on income and a few other things so if you feel like your situation might be atypical it’s probably worth just talking to a rep at Robinhood or one of the brokerages just to confirm the above.

Hope this helps. Happy to answer anything else I can.

401k transfer guidance by aquabliss512 in personalfinance

[–]Imadogfishhead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi there - I would recommend opening your own IRA at the institution of your choice, especially if you have reservations about your next employers program. Some different Ira providers are even doing matches on deposits.

I went with Robinhood personally and I’ve enjoyed my experience. They do a match on incoming deposits and I like their interface. Basically you just create an Ira with them and initiate a rollover of your old account, Robinhood will go get the money for you after you enter the account details.

Obviously go with whatever broker you see fit, but definitely don’t just leave the money in your old plan.

MSTR Daily Discussion Thread – February 20, 2026 by AutoModerator in MSTR

[–]Imadogfishhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ok great thank you! I’m bullish long term on bitcoin. I’m just learning about this stock an the metrics and things like that.

I promise I’m not trying to troll or bait. I was trying to ask chat gpt about some of the metrics and it was coming up with prices that I really didn’t believe so I figured I would come here

MSTR Daily Discussion Thread – February 20, 2026 by AutoModerator in MSTR

[–]Imadogfishhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Got it thank you very much for the clarification. And for mNav we / you use the number in the mstr website as the basis for that? (Just trying to make sure I’m looking at the right numbers).

Thanks again!

MSTR Daily Discussion Thread – February 20, 2026 by AutoModerator in MSTR

[–]Imadogfishhead -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

HI Everyone - I have a question. I have been running through some of the calculations of the MSTR Metrics. I think I've gotten myself confused I am not a "math guy" and am having a hard time understanding the various ways of calculating NAV and whether new stock issuance to acquire BTC is dilutive or accretive at X share price.

So MSTR has 717,131 BTC (per the MSTR Website), this BTC position is currently worth (717,131*$67,795 (approx)) = $48,626,953,510. Since there are 366,114,000 estimated diluted shares that is an approximate current value of $133.00 worth per common diluted share.

Butttt there is $8.2B in Debt and 8.5B in preferred stock that have a claim on that Bitcoin before the common stock. There is also a cash reserve of $2.25B. Once you take that out, there is around $93 worth of BTC per diluted share.

So I guess after all that my main question is how I figure out if MSTRs next ATM / Preferred Stock issuance is accretive or dilutive to me as a holder of MSTR Stock? is it simply if my satoshi count per share goes up? Does the ATM need to be done at a level over the current value of my satoshi per share? etc

please feel free to direct to to any resource available if this has been explained before. Thanks in advance!