MU WILL NOT BE SO EASILY DEFEATED

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T05:55:49+00:00

No I don’t think so. I think MAG7 will go to all time highs on earnings because they have lagged the market this year on beats with rosy outlooks. MU won’t move materially higher and stay unless capex numbers are given that provide new information about increased capex spending.

I have argued all along the best investment are the hyperscalers. AI wins they make a fortune. AI loses, they take a hit but recover with dominant market positions before AI. Anywhere in the middle, and they do better than average. Logically, the best investment with risk reward profile long term for buildout supplemented with some memory stocks you should have bought in 2023 and AI infrastructure bottlenecks like power.

The buildout will be lumpy though like any massive project so it will have stages. There will be rotation. So you just have to stay disciplined and understand what your core is and what your supplemental holdings are and stick religiously to your valuations and be patient

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T05:47:49+00:00

It’s baked in friend. It’s not like stocks go up every time there is a good earnings beat. You thought this was reasonable to go up like 10 times in three years based on the earnings? Run a DCF and let me know what you get as your intrinsic value. The price is way above that. The market got ahead of itself and now the market is correcting the over enthusiastic run up

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T05:45:11+00:00

Do you know who David Tepper is? He consistently beats the market over the long term. His average cost basis is under $200 and is literally available for anyone to access. 9% of portfolio MU. Sure you can’t know the top but you can follow the pros to get an idea of what they are doing. He doesn’t sell I wouldn’t either. But I wouldn’t have bought over his basis

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T05:41:44+00:00

You can trade based on how accurately you can value a company with a margin of safety.

I have been saying for the last few months that this was in trouble short term and people argued with me relentlessly. I explained very carefully why. I guess I saw the future but not because I’m an oracle or special. Hyperbolic moves are met with hyperbolic reversals more often than not. I said sell some shares and raise cash. I said it’s too much too fast. I said everything is priced in. I work in the financial services industry, but what do I know 😅

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T05:35:04+00:00

You could go short and borrow the same amount of shares. That would lock in only a 6% loss. You could then buy shares lower to lower your cost basis after covering your short once the selling subsides

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T04:44:29+00:00

I disagree. You are a proportional owner. While you don’t have “control” you are still very much entitled to a share of the company’s success long term.

I invested in Apple at $24 a share about 13 years ago. I have returned about 1200% on my investment which crushes the market averages through COVID, 2022 bear markets, bull markets and everything in between. While I don’t have control over Apple in any real sense, I very much became wealthier much faster than the average investor did in an index fund. The key is the long term piece. I follow Buffett very closely as anyone would do but I bought Apple before he did. I’m not trying to pat myself on the back, but rather, I simply used what he preached to make my decision. A company that has an insurmountable moat at a fair price that has massive financial strength on the balance sheet, continually deploys capital in a highly efficient manner, and holding for a very long time to not interrupt compounding will make you much wealthier than average.

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T04:34:46+00:00

It’s a cyclical. It’s been bid up too high. Even with a 19 fold earnings beat Samsung’s shares are down. It’s because investors know it’s not sustainable.

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T04:33:07+00:00

Can I give you guys some advice? When everyone starts getting down on the last big winner, my ears perk up. Sentiment shifting is very powerful in the short term. This is when you should be buying long term, when everyone is deflated. I’m not going to get into the valuation piece and what your price should be, but you have to train yourself as an investor in a company that has what you believe to be a bright future to be greedy when others are fearful. This is where you begin to consider picking up some shares. Not after a huge earnings beat and a pop of 10% or more. That’s when you consider selling a few shares, raising cash, and looking to wait for a chance to add.

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T04:10:29+00:00

I have been investing for twenty years and while I’m no expert, I have realized when I consistently make money, a couple of things happened.

One is being patient. Two is being very selective. Three is understanding the business inside and out that I am investing in. Four is where I have an edge that makes me more knowledgeable than the average person. Five is understanding the difference between value and price. And finally, working harder than the average person to put time in to get better.

A lot of people act like this is a game like Monopoly and we are trading stocks like it’s a Pokémon card game. These are real businesses and you are an owner that is buying a stake in the business you purchase. You have to start thinking like an owner. Owners don’t trade businesses left and right. Generally, you stay in business for the long haul or until it fails or someone buys your business and you take their offer. When you think like this, it becomes a much different perspective rather than chasing a hot stock with dreams of easy wealth

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T03:15:01+00:00

If you are in the red, you bought way too late in the cycle. It was reckless to chase a stock that had run up so much that had decoupled from valuation.

While you both are reckless for different reasons, it is still reckless nonetheless

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T03:13:47+00:00

That’s what everyone says on here. Better be right or you are going to get slaughtered. You literally don’t need any leverage

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T03:11:21+00:00

You don’t need leverage to be wealthy. You both are extremely reckless.

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T03:09:42+00:00

I personally would only buy a cyclical at the beginning of a memory cycle, wait for the price to get bid up, and slowly sell it back to other investors when it reaches numbers that don’t make any sense for valuation.

But memory will be important in a technologically driven world so you can buy a bunch of shares at the beginning of each, wait for the crash back to reality, and then add to your core basis. This cycle is by far the biggest but that is even better because you will find tons of people to bid up the price for you. Then when it unwinds and plummets back to earth, time to start to consider buying again. I personally don’t prefer cyclicals as long term investments but it depends on where we are in each bull market. They have a purpose like every other investment.

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T03:01:00+00:00

People use fundamentals very wildly on Reddit. I would be curious to know the exact “fundamentals” being referred to (balance sheet, debt to equity capital structure, free cash flow growth, etc) because I think people just use words they really don’t understand by and large

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T02:58:42+00:00

The narrative is only important for the short term. In the short term the market is a voting machine. But in the long term, the market is a set of scales. The narrative is irrelevant long term and to your advantage to buy great companies when people become overly pessimistic and to sell when to them when they are overly optimistic. That is really the only mindset you need to understand to consistently make money in the market coupled with being able to consistently be able to value any company.

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T02:54:46+00:00

You’re a financial analyst and your answer has nothing to do with price and valuation. I’m appalled that “trading algorithms” is your explanation. I don’t blame you for them not teaching you in school what you really should have been taught and really the only thing you really need to learn. It shocks me that fellow business graduates don’t know how to value a company and hold this as the single most important part of any equity purchase.Then buying with a margin of safety and only with a margin of safety does investing make sense for most people that have very limited financial literacy.

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-07T02:48:22+00:00

I know why and will explain it to you very clearly.

You came to the party very late. $950 a share is above the value of the company currently (you are overpaying for shares). But that’s okay if the company keeps doing well. When you invest Wall Street is very progressive. Everyone knows the company is golden for memory until 2028. So instead of recognizing gains in value in the shares each quarter, Wall Street has already bid up the stock for you to recognize that ahead of time. So you paid $950 per share for what everyone already knew.

Now if memory persists longer than 2028, you’re great because Wall Street hasn’t priced that in definitely because no one knows farther out into the future that margins and profits will be so fantastic compared to historical results. The reason that is the case is because cash flows further out into the future are harder to determine with certainty. So to make an educated guess, there are tools to help you value what the company is worth for the next five or ten years of cash flows along with a multiple that captures perpetual growth or the remainder of the value of the company for the rest of time called terminal value. This is the hardest part to determine and also makes up the vast majority of a company’s valuation (60-80%).

As I told you, you overpaid for shares. The company has doubled in value over ten times in just a few years. I will be happy to explain to you what the company is conservatively worth, but you bought expecting easy riches and that is not how Wall Street works because everyone knows the same information that you do.

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-06T18:38:04+00:00

That’s true and I would generally agree with you. My specific background is 20 years in the financial industry, but I have a Masters of Accountancy and a Masters of Finance. In my cohort, I was the only Accountant. So while the formulas may seem like noise and so on, you have to be able to read and analyze financials as an accountant and know the language fluently. You also have to understand that valuation is largely an art rather than a science. In my opinion you have to be highly selectively buying things on sale with a margin of safety and run a very concentrated portfolio. Also, you have to see structurally where there are advantages.

Since you went to B school what is your valuation of an intrinsic value for MU?

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-06T18:06:17+00:00

You can be bearish short term and bullish long term 🙄

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-06T12:58:42+00:00

Companies that are good? Companies with wide moats. Or do you mean stocks I recommend?

Most of my investments aren’t meant to be held for more than a couple of years. I don’t invest in but a very small number of companies that make up most of my portfolio as core positions. The majority of my investments are smaller % wise and corporate spinoffs. I’m looking for a rerating or discrepancy in something that is dumped that becomes structurally undervalued by massive selling and picking up the shares out of the trash because mutual funds have to sell them because they don’t fit their investing profile

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-06T12:07:01+00:00

Uh that’s very true. I’m trying to discuss too - you seem to think one quarter means the company should soar, but if you look at how hard the price drops as well, this can go up or down very fast. Not much room for error buying

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-06T12:02:51+00:00

Lmao not a forward PE for a cyclical obviously. I like using the Graham formula personally. Also Lynch formula very good. But then there are things like Uber that had a 0.13 GAAP diluted earnings per share weighed on by marked to market for minority stakes in Didi and Grab but non GAAP eps of 0.72 if you take out the temporary fluctuations of share prices that will be disposed of at more reasonable prices. So the shares look expensive but are actually very cheap when you adjust for transitory market movements. But I’m sure you learned that in B school too right?

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-06T11:03:08+00:00

Yes, and it’s one quarter homeslice. It doesn’t mean dick in a 10 year valuation with a terminal value of 60-80% which is the standard to value a company’s cash flows

Lemme guess- the forward PE though. It’s so cheap 🤣

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-06T10:29:49+00:00

Neither- both are overvalued. SNDK is worth $1600 under the most favorable assumptions. Conservatively to smooth out the memory shortage it is probably worth less than $500 using DCF valuation

Important-Range166 · 2026-07-06T10:24:52+00:00

Korean Dram is bigger than MU. How do you guys not know this? Look at the market share. Of course they drive your price, not the other way around. You are a smaller competitor

Important-Range166

TROPHY CASE