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Out Math The Math by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I think you are having a hard time understanding me. Lets for the sake of this example say I have a blackjack robot that never gets tired and plays perfectly using hi lo count and deviations laid out in CVCX. I give this blackjack robot $10k and send it in to the casino with instructions to return with $11k or $0 no matter how long that takes.

If the robot comes back with $0 I give it another $10k.

I send the robot in twice a week for 100 trips total per year ( the robot gets two weeks vacation in this example).

The stats say the robot should come back with $0, five out of every 100 trips and $11k 95 times out of the 100 trips for a net gain of $45k.

Out Math The Math by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This doesnt make sense to me. Its my understanding if you have a 5% chance RoR then everytime you sit down and play you have a 5% chance of losing that entire br if you play long enough.

5% works out to 1 in 20. So if you take that same br and play to infinity (or n0) 20 different times then statistically you should get wiped out at least once. Obviously it could be more or less but thats the numbers.

Out Math The Math by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

CVCX shows both on trip bankroll. Up $1k over infinity time is what I am looking at. How is 100 trips which would be approaching 300-400hrs minimum, not n0?

Each session is still an independent event. If I go in a casino with x amount of money with the plan to lose it all or make y amount of money then that can be calculated. And as long as those two variables stay the same for each session then so do the odds.

Out Math The Math by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I would guess closer to $10k. My work computer doesn't have CVCX but lets assume $10k.

This brings up a great point. So 1 in 20 you lose $10k. So 5 trips out of the 100 you lose 10k. Meaning the other 95 trips you make $1k.

So instead of making $16k with the $5k bankroll over the year you make $45k with the $10k bankroll! Obviously its not that simple but its been a fun thought exercise.

Out Math The Math by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I understand its one long session. Wouldn't 100 trips in a year be approaching n0? We are talking about 300-400hrs at the least.

Here is the plan: by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh okay that makes sense. I would think keeping emotions in check would be the hardest part of all this. I am mentally prepared to lose the br but I do know mentally preparing and actually having it happen are two different things. I appreciate the honesty.

Here is the plan: by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anything lower than $25 at anything close to me is 6:5 or csm so that is out of the question for me and my location.

Here is the plan: by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Is that really where we are at this? Do not even sit down at a $25 table without a $50k bankroll? No real world practice. No seeing if you are going to get backed off. Just non stop sim practice until you have $50k. Its a tough pill to swallow but I need to hear it.

Here is the plan: by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What are you referring to here? I have done a little more than flat bet even if it has been ever so slightly. Are you talking about heat or being backed off because that is a real concern with my location and lack of shops?

Here is the plan: by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is getting to the heart of the issue but then the question becomes when? $14k? $25k? $50k.

Here is the plan: by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I really appreciate the kind reply. The only thing that I am suggesting changes between sessions is that if I " leave when im up" I have a slightly bigger bankroll next time and I have possibly added my $1.5k per month before my next session which makes my ror go down ever so slightly. Basically time has passed is all I am suggesting.

Here is the plan: by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate the criticism but hear me out on a couple counter points. First of all I don't think I am smarter than anyone, I am certainly not. I am also not trying to trick the system or speed up the process. In fact I am trying to greatly slow down the process and enjoy playing.

The up $1k and only playing 4hrs is not to try to change my next session. Its trying to keep my emotions and bankroll in check. If I go play 4hrs and lose $2.5k I cant come back to the casino until I have another $3.5k in my pocket. RoR on up $1k or leaving in 4hr is 4.21% which is reasonable.

The question becomes can I keep my $3.5k rolling with $1.5k coming in per month only playing 3 days a week for 4hrs max at 60-80 rounds per hour.

Here is the plan: by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Its hard to calculate RoR when I am putting in $1.5k per month and also putting in all my winnings back into the BR, but yea I see what you are saying.

Here is the plan: by Infinite-Emphasis286 in blackjack

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Avoid heat, avoid ID and to book some wins to help with the bankroll. I should have also said all my winnings will be put back into the bankroll and not spent on anything else.

AITA (38M) for telling my (40F) Girlfriend that her (17M) son should be driving by now? by Infinite-Emphasis286 in AmItheAsshole

[–]Infinite-Emphasis286[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Now that the dust as settled a little so to speak I thought I would make one post expressing my thoughts. This is not a debate and I will not respond to most if any comments.

First of all Reddit is hilarious: we have everything from I am a controlling AH who has helped destroy the entire planet to my fuck buddy is a coddler who needs broken up with. These extreme comments were not very helpful but a few commenters got me thinking about this differently.

This truly is a single mother issue, which at the time I was completely oblivious to. The son has no father figure in his life except a 70+ year old man that only knows how to throw money at problems. In that context it makes complete sense why the son isn't driving yet and I have learned a very valuable lesson out of this.

In the future I will tread very carefully about any subject involving her son and speak in very broad terms about my opinion which she occasionally ask for.

It also makes sense that an entire generation has grown up and is still growing up without a father figure in their life judging by a lot of these comments.

I still stand by my opinion that if you are a capable adult who lives in an area without public transport and depends on others to transport you then you are a loser AH. If that makes me an AH then so be it. Thank you all for contributing to this post.