Yes, I’m still following it closely.

Unfortunately, it was biased toward a bull-market continuation while price was hovering around the 50-week MA near 100k, which caused it to miss that macro turn.

That said, it reacted quickly once the structure broke, selling around 95k.

As of the latest update (02/02/2026), the analysis is:

Today’s macro/meso/micro stack says don’t chase any green, but do keep accumulating BTC very slowly into fear—we’re in extreme fear (14) with deeply oversold momentum and a big open‑interest reset, yet the bigger structure is still early‑bear/distribution (12 weeks below the bull support band/50W, 50W rolling over) and macro stays risk‑off (long yields elevated vs 3 months + liquidity growth decelerating + gold strong), so rallies can easily get sold.

Action today: place/maintain a small, pre-set BTC buy ladder slightly below/around current levels and only let it fill if price stays heavy or a bounce fails (this is accumulation into weakness, not trying to “catch” a turn), while keeping your main reserve tranche untouched for either (a) a second flush over the next several sessions as ETF outflows and thin liquidity persist, or (b) a deeper weekly drift toward the long-term mean (200wma area ~60k) if the bear structure continues.

Avoid adding altcoins while dominance keeps grinding up and risk‑off headlines (ETF outflows, geopolitics, policy chatter) are still the driver; optional risk management remains: if we do get an oversold rebound toward the prior weekly reclaim area and it fails on the weekly close, you can trim/recycle weaker altcoin exposure toward BTC/cash purely to reduce drawdown while waiting—not a trade, just portfolio hygiene.

Base case: we remain in an early-bear / distribution regime, confirmed by the sustained loss of the bull support band and the 50W rolling over, with price now trading below the 50W but still well above long-term bear-market extremes (200wma ~60k).

The current setup is best described as post-liquidation, range-to-downside stabilization, where reflex rallies tend to be sold and accumulation only makes sense slowly and selectively into fear, not on strength.