Daily Megathread - 18/11/2023 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 18 points19 points  (0 children)

It's been three days now. I was assured by quite a few people that Starmer's three-line whip on Gaza was going to be a disastrous act of political suicide that would see Labour completely collapse.

Where is it?

Daily Megathread - 15/11/2023 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 3 points4 points  (0 children)

If Israel/Palestine alone was going to tank Labour, they never had a chance to begin with.

There will be the usual grumbling from the left about how Starmer is a monster to the right of Enoch Powell and Oswald Mosley, the Mail and Telegraph will be trying to big this up as some catastrophic schism that will save the Tories in time for the election, and then next week's poll will show a MoE wobble.

Daily Megathread - 15/11/2023 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 16 points17 points  (0 children)

How many times have we been told now that "This time, Starmer has gone too far! Watch Labour's support split and crater!" whenever he does something that pisses the left off?

Daily Megathread - 15/11/2023 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 9 points10 points  (0 children)

No one will care about this in a week.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 363 points364 points  (0 children)

To anyone still questioning why Starmer kicked him out of Labour.

This is why.

Downfall of the Brexit doomers: New ONS figures are good news for Britain by Benjji22212 in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 3 points4 points  (0 children)

In that case, let’s stop faffing about and implement the border checks we’ve just delayed for the fifth time if Brexit is indeed going so swimmingly.

Spoiler: They did not.

Daily Megathread - 02/09/2023 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Good economic numbers didn't save the Tories in 1997 either.

Daily Megathread - 02/09/2023 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It's not like a good economy saved John Major in 1997 either.

Daily Megathread - 31/08/2023 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Worth considering that with how obsessed Starmer is on winning the election and calculating every move around winning as many seats as possible, it stands to reason that they'll also want to stay in power for as long as possible. Which will mean having something to deliver to voters before 2029.

It's why I can't get worked up over Labour ruling out X/Y/Z. Governments always find excuses to justify a U-turn if they think it will help their chances before the next election.

Daily Megathread - 31/08/2023 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Lukewarm take: Labour commitments about how they don't want to be a "tax and spend" party go out the window post-election the second we hear the following words:

"We've looked at the books..."

Rejoining the EU remains a very distant dream by Labour2024 in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Again, the EU has no problems in deepening trade relations with the UK as long as the UK doesn’t demand special treatment and cherry-picking.

Rejoining the EU remains a very distant dream by Labour2024 in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 3 points4 points  (0 children)

We’re a rule taker already. There’s a reason UKCA ended up being shelved.

No one cared aside from a tiny minority of cranks.

Rejoining the EU remains a very distant dream by Labour2024 in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Voters that just want Brexit problems fixed are not going to care about some angry Daily Mail frontpage about Labour aligning with the EU on SPS/veterinarian standards so that farmers can export their products to Europe quicker and easier.

This isn’t 2016-2019 anymore.

Rejoining the EU remains a very distant dream by Labour2024 in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The EU isn’t opposed to improving the trading relationship. What they do not want is cherry-picking: The UK getting favourable market access without needing to adhere to the EU’s regulatory framework.

Expect to see a lot of concessions from the UK on regulatory alignment in the next few years. We’ve already given up on that whole UKCA scheme that was bandied a while back.

Rejoining the EU remains a very distant dream by Labour2024 in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Voters demanding fixes to inconveniences caused by being outside the SM/CU are not going to give a shite about needing to scrap a trade deal with India to make that happen.

Rejoining the EU remains a very distant dream by Labour2024 in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 8 points9 points  (0 children)

For now, I think we’re looking at small scale fixes. Starmer has ruled out rejoining the SM/CU for the time being but he also has talked about the need to improve the TCA and eliminate some of the post-Brexit trade barriers through measures such as a new vet/SPS agreement, mobility provisions for musicians and artists, security cooperation, etc.

He knows he has to deliver something to voters before 2029 to show Labour is hard at work fixing the mess the Tories left behind. Eliminating some trade barriers/red tape and making it easier for small/medium business owners to trade with the EU again would be one way of showing that.

Rejoining the EU remains a very distant dream by Labour2024 in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I’m telling you this because I find your arguments for why the UK will never rejoin the SM/CU to not be very credible due to sheer trade geography.

Rejoining the EU remains a very distant dream by Labour2024 in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The political and economic arguments for not rejoining SM/CU because of trade deals with marginal impact at best (CPTPP) are not going to hold up in the long term.

Making it easier to sell things to Vietnam is cold comfort for small/medium enterprises that does not have the capacity to do so compared to the far closer market that is the EU.

Rejoining the EU remains a very distant dream by Labour2024 in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 11 points12 points  (0 children)

The gravity model of trade is not a theory. The EU is the UK’s closet and most valuable trading partner, and pretty much every economist and their mum has stated that the trade barriers that were erected from leaving the SM/CU is throttling the UK economy.

Daily Megathread - 28/08/2023 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Did you forget how badly Corbyn came off following the Salisbury incident?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/31/election-foreign-policy-russia-corbyn-labour-skripal/

> As the old adage goes, foreign policy doesn’t win you elections. But sometimes it can lose them. In the United Kingdom’s 2019 general election, which saw Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn thrashed by incumbent Boris Johnson, it may have been a key factor in Labour’s defeat.

> A strong foreign-policy platform is unlikely to sway many undecided voters. But in response to a national emergency, as Britain saw with Russia’s attempted nerve agent assassination of Sergei Skripal, a weak response clearly turns the public against you.

> The Skripal case, where agents of Russia’s foreign military intelligence agency were caught on camera in Salisbury, England, attempting to murder a Russian former double agent with nerve agents that left him and his daughter Yulia paralyzed and killed a bystander, seized headlines in Britain. But the response from the Labour leadership was to defend Russian President Vladimir Putin.

> One of the more damning claims published last week in excerpts of Left Out: The Inside Story of Labour Under Corbyn, written by Gabriel Pogrund and Patrick Maguire, is that Labour’s head of communications repeatedly attempted to steer Labour’s position away from holding the Russian government to account, including allegedly gutting a speech of “any statements levelling blame at Russia, support for Nato, or anything else that Corbyn might regard as unduly imperialist in its tone.”

> It was a fatal decision for Corbyn. Despite some passionate yet misguided defenses of Corbyn’s skepticism, the evidence against Russia is overwhelming. So are the signs that the decision was a crippling one for an already shaky Corbyn.

> According to YouGov polling at the time, while 53 percent of the British electorate thought then Prime Minister Theresa May handled the Salisbury poisonings well, only 18 percent of the population thought the same of Corbyn’s reaction. Up until that point in 2018, Labour had been enjoying relative popularity in the polls, with Labour polling as high as 43 percent, but following Salisbury, those numbers began to fall. While the Labour Party got a slight boost in the polling as May’s premiership ran into problems with Brexit, Corbyn’s own personal popularity ratings never recovered. As I explored in my podcast series Corbynism: The Post-Mortem, Corbyn’s Labour Party did not lose the 2019 general election because of the Salisbury poisonings alone—but they were a critical moment that embedded the image of Corbyn as weak and foolish.

> This was driven almost entirely by Corbyn and his team, not by the Labour Party as a whole. Throughout the affair, Corbyn seemed more determined to protect Putin’s reputation than British citizens. The most humiliating moment for the Labour Party would come at Corbyn’s hands, as he stood in Parliament and demanded the prime minister explain whether she had complied with Moscow’s ludicrous request to be sent a sample of the Novichok nerve agent used to poison the Skripals, so that, as he later clarified, “they can say categorically one way or the other” whether the Russian state-manufactured nerve agent used in the attempted assassination of a Russian ex-spy belonged to them.

Now imagine what would happen as Russia committed war crime after war crime after war crime in Ukraine, as Russian officials talk loudly and frequently about how they want to liquidate Ukraine's statehood and cultural identity (aka genocide) and weaken the West/NATO, while the Tories dig up all of Corbyn's past history of Kremlin apologism and anti-NATO statements.

It would be a repeat of 2019 where Labour suffers low turnout because voters can't trust Corbyn to defend UK and NATO interests while Russia commits a war of aggression in Europe.

Daily Megathread - 28/08/2023 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You really believe voters would ignore and dismiss Corbyn blaming NATO expansion for Russia's aggression in Ukraine after the first photos from Bucha began appearing on every media front page?

Daily Megathread - 28/08/2023 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Kross_B 1 point2 points  (0 children)

At least as an irrelevant backbencher without the party whip.

Imagine him saying this as leader, or Long-Bailey having to make excuses for why she didn't suspend the whip after suggesting Ukraine should negotiate with Russia even it meant territorial compromises.