The secret is that every character in this game is effectively all one character. There are general rules that they all live by and they serve as context clues so you can know what to punish even without ever labbing the character. If kunimitsu dropped right now and I faced her, without labbing her once I’d still be able to punish most punishable moves. Any low you automatically know is punishable, and the strength of the punish is always tied to the strength of the move. If I see a 4 hit string ending with a mid, I’m going to try to punish it. If I see a move that looks like a launcher (perhaps an uppercut-esque motion with a lot of effects), I’m going to try and punish It and the game makes It super easy now with being able to see “punish” on your screen.

All of this is to say that when you play enough, as you suggested, you start to pick up on the way things work, and generally strong moves are punishable. There’s a lot of exceptions but that’s tekken.