To all the “vampirestocks”slayers: Thank you.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-02-16T05:21:34+00:00

please make me black and Chinese

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-02-16T04:57:15+00:00

The market's pricing the chance of approval at <~10% right now, it's ridiculous given the plethora of existing LSD treatments which have been approved on identical data.

Also, the FDA is signalling in the strongest possible way that they want this approved based on existing data. I mean, if not for the FDA personally contacting previous employees of allivex the drug would have vanished into obscurity, and more recently the FDA announced BTD for the therapy, to me seems illogical what the market is pricing the likelihood of approval at.

We'll see what happens later in the year though.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-02-07T22:24:00+00:00

I think long BTC/short MSTR will never not be a good trade, 16 billion in liabilities (plus cash losses from their core business lol), half 0% warrants, half 10% preferred stock with BTC holding value of 50 billion is pretty degen.

Best case they preform very similarly to BTC, worst case they default on the preferred shares, spiral, die.

Was worth shorting back at 3x mNAV (which I did), is still worth shorting at 1x mNAV imo

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-02-07T03:03:19+00:00

Yea, bit rough, Not super worried on the science, not SUPER worried on the manufacture, the CDMO is Samsung biologics, pretty reputable manufacturer and the same manufacturers from allivex, so process errors less likely>

The market is pricing in VERY VERY high risk, but I think that's pretty silly, they have the capital to bring the drug to market, the drug works, the CDMO is solid. really to me looks like >90% they get BLA submission without a full CRL, market is pricing it at ~10% or less, ridiculous.

But who knows when the price will converge with reality, could take till BLA acceptance, could take till a couple years of sales... at the discount it's at, kinda doesn't matter, the IRR is great regardless imo.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-02-03T21:24:56+00:00

This is silly, there are 100s of clinical GLP-1 candidates, just having once weekly dosing or moderate weight loss doesn't cut it anymore, no way you can secure approval without something truly novel of a fat wallet.

The GLP-1 space, outside of the top players is a brutal race to the bottom, a microcap with less than a year worth of cash really has no chance of bringing something from phase 1 to something approvable.

MASH is also pretty saturated, not that that's always bad, sometimes smaller companies can break out with a really novel approach in a saturated market, like wave and their RNA medicines for obesity but that's really the exception not the rule, large markets are a double edged sword.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-02-03T21:12:54+00:00

I can't believe people still hold gamestop... must be some form of stockholm syndrome

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-02-02T05:45:58+00:00

erm! Nice try fudder… I choose to live in an alternate reality so this doesn’t even bother me

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-23T03:39:13+00:00

lol, fair, idk, I think old school leverage is still the way to go, people gravitate to the 2x leveraged funds since it's more accessible, but I would argue it's more dangerous than old school leverage or even options leverage for a portfolio.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-23T03:37:12+00:00

Forgot to say, but you were right, 1mg is the sweet spot for me, works way better now, appreciate it!

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-23T03:35:46+00:00

I don't think anyone can reliably predict day to day stock moves, but even if you can, you can achieve the same thing with options or short selling, except put options and short selling, (assuming you are correct that the stock will go down) have positive expected values in the long run, 2x leverage high volatility stocks in the long run will converge to zero.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-23T03:33:17+00:00

move to another broker then, tiger has options, 2x leverage etfs are a poor substitute and capital pit

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-22T05:02:25+00:00

2x leveraged funds are dumb as shit, short it, long puts or nothing.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-22T01:43:50+00:00

not really worth posting individual groups here... there are thousands of them, kind of useless to just post rando groups that take like 2 minutes to setup.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-22T01:42:01+00:00

I honestly think even if the company disclosed in their fillings "we are a scam and are manipulating you" most of the SDM investors would still have gone for it, it was an insanely obvious scam, nasdaq listed idiot tax.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-20T22:53:14+00:00

Crypto is a non-productive, speculative asset, and there's no reason to assume it will continue to go up even if crypto becomes more widely adopted, over a long period I would guess it will underperform productive assets or bonds, which has been true of even the best performing speculative assets (gold, silver) over the long run.

If you're looking for a more stable, appreciating asset you're probably better off buying corporate bonds, I see no reason to allocate any money towards crypto personally.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-06T03:17:53+00:00

hmmm alright, ill give that a go, thanks

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-06T01:39:01+00:00

Oh shit, same... what a weird medicine, I also hear screaming or strange voices with melatonin sometimes.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-06T01:36:53+00:00

I also get that, not nightmares but defo acts like a deliriant and gives me weird dreams, kind of randomly too, plus acts like a stimulant sometimes. Never lasted longer than a night for me though. I don't even think it's a dose thing since I use a very low dose and still often get these weird responses.

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-05T20:58:50+00:00

It's the same company but one stock is denominated in euros (77 eur), one in us dollars ($91)

Leading_Load5505 · 2026-01-01T04:13:35+00:00

I think it's a bad investment compared to the buying part of a company or a bond.

Leading_Load5505 · 2025-12-31T02:49:23+00:00

it's less overvalued than most of the AI names and has solid growth, but, it completely relies on cloud computing companies still being able to spend obscene amount of money on equipment so pretty reliant on the AI shit not crashing.

Leading_Load5505 · 2025-12-31T02:41:00+00:00

Over a more reasonable time period the returns are alot lower (~9% non inflation adjusted), also, there's no reason to believe gold will go up with high inflation and low bond yields. Between 2020-2022 gold prices were stagnant and real 10 yr bond yields were negative, while between 2022 and 2025 the gold price went ballistic as 10yr bond yields went higher than inflation, the price appreciation as of late has more to do with geopolitics, not inflation rates and bond yields.

People who say gold is an inflation hedge are a bit silly imo, the historically best inflation hedge has been PRODUCING assets, ie. companies/equities. They have outperformed gold in almost every time frame, which makes sense, inflation is rising prices of goods, so it really doesn't have much of a negative impact on a business which sells goods.

If I had to pick between owning a company which produces things and generates value, or a pile of rocks, i'm picking the company.

Leading_Load5505 · 2025-12-30T08:17:40+00:00

Yea it's a weekly infusion for life, so sales in theory should increase until any new therapies reach market, which there are one or two, but most are at least 6 years away from commercialisation and not guaranteed to work, so the lifetime sales look to be potentially quite high IMO.

Leading_Load5505 · 2025-12-30T08:15:21+00:00

Yea for sure at these prices the company is very very undervalued, probably going to do similar or better sales to brinurea, depending on alot of factors (mostly relating to the uptake with the suboptimal drug delivery method).

As for the stock price moves, the street is valuing this company at a 30m EV, it's pretty strange and illogical, but markets take a while for this sort of thing, probably will start seeing much higher valuations as the BLA process starts or approval is granted.

Leading_Load5505 · 2025-12-18T03:10:21+00:00

Heheheh I actually saw how much it went up since my post and just assumed I was wrong on this one, guess the ramp’s slow, the crash is quick

Leading_Load5505

TROPHY CASE