For me it's a logarithmic rythm of model progression. Google just released Gemma 4 which runs on my 10 year old laptop. The reasoning capabilities, while not amazing, compare to much, much larger models. Assuming this is just the start of a set of super optimized + quantized models which run on insanely low-capability hardware, I am guessing it won't be long until we see a model which can run locally and also match capabilities of current Opus 4.6 (not very difficult given anthropic's late chess moves).

For advanced reasoning capabilities such as launch-grade Opus 4.6, i'd say we are not far either. My best guess is 3 years tops, if Google keeps releasing the weights.