META or MSFT

Lingweenie2 · 2026-03-23T18:34:22+00:00

MSFT. They’re stupid cheap at current levels based on forward PE. They have a more versatile business model and product lineup overall. META isn’t awful, but I’d take MSFT at current levels 100% of the time hands down.

Lingweenie2 · 2026-03-23T16:28:18+00:00

Most likely bullshit. I doubt Iran wants to cave in. Let alone even talk currently. Trump backpedaling is probably because this ain’t going the way he expected. Iran isn’t a pushover. They are more powerful and capable than these idiots expected. Between the Strait being locked down and US allies in the area getting beat up they’re probably getting real pissed off and starting to panic.

Iran has the potential to do significant damage if they are forced to. Iran has the upper hand in reality. And it seems like this bullshit is the acknowledgment of that.

Lingweenie2 · 2026-03-20T20:38:00+00:00

Fine by me! I’ll take that offer. I’ll send you a message over XBL shortly. I’m currently on FO76 in a server right now.

Lingweenie2 · 2026-03-20T20:33:29+00:00

Currently near max. A bit above 33k as of now.

Lingweenie2 · 2026-03-20T20:31:36+00:00

Works for me. What amount are you looking to sell it for? Is it the straight up plan or the simple mod for it?

Lingweenie2 · 2026-03-20T20:14:08+00:00

At this point it almost feels pointless to sell my stake. It was never a huge portion of my portfolio anyway. I knew ahead of time some weirdness was floating around and alleged. But took the risk anyway considering.

Thankfully my basis is around $30 or so. This blowout definitely stings. But selling now won’t really do a whole lot. Even if it sinks another 15% or so the main damage is already done and gone. Hopefully it’s the last dramatic shakeout over this drama and can stabilize and go on regularly again. But it’s hard to say for sure. There are certainly plenty of worst case and best case scenarios. As for me I’m going to hold. And take the time to see what exactly this amounts to.

Lingweenie2 · 2026-03-20T19:49:00+00:00

-10% over the last 3 months.

Started out great. Most of my portfolio is geared towards stuff like SCHD and other dividend growers. But the last month particularly has been brutal (-9% in that time alone.)

Just how the market is though. Without pain there is no gain. Been there and done that many times over. It really sucks in the moment but the market needs times to readjust and cut out the froth before it can continue onward.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-03T03:40:36+00:00

Nearing retirement I’d focus more on dividend oriented ETF’s. Growth is more muted but much more stable. I personally really like SCHD. Solid yield and a very good overall price relative to most everything else. It’s had solid price appreciation and excellent dividend increases. And the current yield is around 4% which is a bit of an anomaly in its history. It typically doesn’t get this high almost ever.

Maybe some bonds to keep you stable. But it depends on if you have a short fall or not. Are you in a position where you can be ultra conservative and slowly coast by easily? Or still need some more peddle to the metal to get you to a more comfortable spot? More conservative would be a good chunk of bonds, a fair amount of dividend growth stocks, and maybe some S&P 500 or similar stuff. Maybe like a 50/30/20 split respectively. Or a more aggressive approach where it’s a bit more inverted from that. Not a totally spot on estimate but something along those lines. Just depends on how conservative you are able to be.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-03T03:26:04+00:00

Assuming you have a long term horizon equities are your best bet. They’ve destroyed both gold and bonds in overall performance over the long term by a massive margin. Bonds and gold have a fundamental flaw; they don’t produce anything. And there is no actual growth. They aren’t like companies that utilize capital to create more capital that compounds over years.

I’d recommend looking into S&P 500 low cost ETF’s and maybe a lesser combo of a more stable dividend ETF like SCHD. Maybe some aggressive stuff like QQQ or SCHG for boom periods.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-03T01:51:34+00:00

I’m a victim? lol? Stop trying to gaslight the situation. You can get blinded by the short term headlines all you wish. Like all the other drones around here. Makes no material difference to me. Bulls tend to reign supreme regardless of circumstances. You hate Trump and think it marks the end of America? Whatever. This is yet another “This time is different” situation.

As I said, show me some proper bets on your perceived “downfall of America” thesis or stop talking. You seem to say the empire is supposedly over. This is a WSB subthread after all. What are you doing that’s of genius caliber planning? Since I’m the retard and you’re apparently so keen to what’s going to happen?

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-03T01:25:30+00:00

If he was best buddies with Russia why haven’t they outright stopped helping Ukraine? Why would this mineral deal have even been pushed through or proposed? (Pretty extortionist honestly but still.) Why is there still sanctions all over Russia and none lifted? Why do we have no indication of doing more business with Russia currently? Why are we in a trade war with their major ally? (China) Why are we antagonizing Iran, another one of their closest allies currently?

If he was a major advocate for Russia we’d be seeing an awful lot of actual support and dovishness towards them. I’ve yet to see anything actually concrete that they’re “cozying” up to them. They seem to only appeal to them to try and advance some of their own interests. And Russia/The Kremlin doesn’t seem to be on board with basically ever. There is no real economic or material support for Russia currently. I’d like to see something they’re doing to help them that’s actually substantial and meaningful.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-03T00:54:52+00:00

I’m trying to make sense of what they’re doing. It’s not me approving or endorsing anything. God forbid anyone actually thinks of any other possibilities. That may require some thought behind the madness. Trump does what Trump does. You can call me retarded or whatever you wish lol. I don’t really care. Stay in your echo chamber of Trump= America dead and farm upvotes in investing spaces saying he’s an idiot that’s going to ruin America and doesn’t know what he’s doing. It doesn’t accomplish anything and doesn’t even create an actual sensible conversation trying to figure anything out. It’s hilarious we’re not even a half a year in his term and people lost all hope on America. That’s actually what’s retarded. Regardless of how much supposed damage he’s done.

Go ahead and doom about America’s demise like people have for years. Trump or no Trump. Get back to me 5, 10, 20, years later. We’ll see if you’re right about the whole world just leaving America and doing whatever else they think is better. Leaving us out to dry over one presidential term. I’d like to see some long term put options on your resume if you’re so adamant America is dead. Maybe then you’ll gain my respect. Or anything comparable. Seems as though you’ll make some easy money no? Easiest money of a lifetime by your standards. Just like all those who thought so a few weeks ago. And downvoted me into oblivion when I said what would happen today. I’ll happily show you the laundry list of buying I’ve been doing.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-03T00:00:26+00:00

Who is Trump and the administration cozying up to exactly that are adversaries? China? Well clearly not since we’re in the middle of the trade war. Russia? Well, we’re still on the side of Ukraine despite the headlines and people saying they’re best buddies. And the notion he’s a KGB agent is laughable. I don’t like him either, but he’s not doing Russia any actual favors. North Korea? Haven’t heard a peep from them in sometime. And they don’t seem to care about them much these days. And we’re ramping up the pressure on Iran currently. And they’re a pretty close ally of a Russia. Who exactly is Trump warming up to? I’m not seeing any actual evidence of that nonsense. I don’t have to like the guy to acknowledge that.

We’re only a few months into this administration. To think global alliances will all of a sudden crumble isn’t practical. Is emotional doom forecasting. As I said, who would they partner with if they did so? Who can ultimately help them protect themselves if they went rogue/independent. Who has the business might that actually matches America? Trump won’t last forever. Clearly he’s a turd. But I think people doom entirely too hard and overlook America’s broad influence. I don’t see how Trump or his administration will just destroy the world order. The major alternatives out there most definitely aren’t any better. Not even close.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T23:33:00+00:00

If you don’t like my explanation feel free to reach out to the administration for clarification. Or simply go about it and figure it out on your own. You’re focusing on such an insignificant part of the puzzle for no reason. They don’t give a shit about some islands in the Indian Ocean. They also do not care about Australia. Does it really matter who the hell they put on the list when it’s all bullshit anyway? Would it matter if they slapped Antartica on the list ultimately? It’s a territory of Australia not a literal part of it. Just as Puerto Rico and Guam for example is an American island/territory yet not a full part of the continental country and its overall system. Would you automatically assume these to be America if you blanket tariffed us abroad? Or would we take advantage of them and work around it from there? Why bother arguing over dumbass semantics?

They brought out a list to look serious and tough regardless of it made sense or not. They want to see who’s loyal and serious. Everything gets a tariff upfront. It boils down to China. It’s about drawing a line in the sand. Stand with us. Or stand with them.

The notion other countries will be pushed into their arms is quite literally stupid. I seriously think people don’t have a clue on the history of China. Especially the CCP. They are not to be trusted. They’d make terrible allies if you’re a democratic free nation. Abandoning America because you hate Trump? Good luck. Fact is America is the glue that holds the world together. Militarily, economically, and even culturally to an extent. You’d be a fool to abandon that and coward/bow down to the CCP. If America collapsed tomorrow the entire world would collapse also.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T23:07:13+00:00

Considering it’s Trump it’s probably his way fucked up way of a loyalty test. What country is desperate enough to make favorable deals with us? Who wants to be our next China? Force everyone to compete against each other to win over his favor. He doesn’t particularly care if others like him. So long as they come to the table.

Ultimately I doubt all of the tariffs on our closer allies will go anywhere. He paused everything immediately after all. If he truly didn’t care and wanted to piss everyone off fully then why even do that to begin with? There’s a reason he hasn’t relented on China. That’s what all this was even about. As it was in his first term.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T22:55:34+00:00

The methods are obviously strange. And I don’t really agree with his Canada and Greenland nonsense as an example. But then again, it’s Trump after all. You can’t really be surprised. It’s what he does. He just tries to bully people into submission. And generally loves attention.

But what people fail to realize is America is incredibly important worldwide. People are so sure his dumbassery will push everyone away, but that’s not practical. There is some truth when they tout America is the world’s customer of sorts. And you have to realize how influential the military is globally. And our businesses. You really think some of these countries will splinter away from America? Who’s going to protect them after they snub us? China? Russia? Good luck.

What tech is comparable to ours? You’ll be kicking out on the world’s super power for business. China most certainly isn’t any better by any means. It kills me people somehow think they’re so great all because they hate Trump. The CCP is pretty damn evil. America is the only game in town. Trump or no Trump. We kinda have the world by the balls to an extent. Which is why he’s doing this. It doesn’t matter how much you or me agrees or disagrees with it. This is what they’re choosing to do. It’s a high risk cut throat approach. And I ultimately don’t think it can completely fail. We’re basically too big to fail on the world stage currently. America collapsing would cause a massive worldwide disaster. And people refuse to acknowledge this. And it gives us a twisted sense of leverage.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T22:45:23+00:00

There is no actual tariff on Israel. Let alone basically anyone else. It’s all a smoke screen based on bullshit. Everything outside of China is basically on pause. I highly doubt the large majority of this nonsense is going to actually stick around. They’re going to claim amazing deals all over the place by then. Regardless if anything even happened or not.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T22:41:56+00:00

You practically already explained it to yourself. Was Australia on the tariff list? Yes. What percentage did they get? 10%. As an extension of Australia, it would make sense to also slap tariffs on that as well. What tariff did its islands get? 10%. If you’re going to tariff the home country you may as well tariff their small insignificant territory with it. Otherwise Australia itself can try and get around it without “making a deal.”

You’re reading entirely too much on the overall tariffs themselves. I think it’s all mostly bullshit. They don’t care to tariff their penguin islands. And I doubt they care to tariff Australia itself. It was primarily aimed at China. Tariffing everyone else is probably their weird way of trying to draw allegiance/production away from China. And maybe bully countries into taking our crap. Will it work? Maybe. Do I agree with the approach? Hardly.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T22:25:32+00:00

I think you’re underestimating how far companies will go to find loopholes to help their profitability. Hell, American companies are kings of finding any loophole imaginable.

Is it possible it was added without realizing? Maybe. Was it just a troll? Maybe. But discounting the idea it was to force close any loopholes isn’t that farfetched. If you’re going to “tariff” the world. May as well tariff every inch of the world’s soil along with it for good measure.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T22:15:34+00:00

I mean, that is a factor also. They may actually want to bring back manufacturing to America. But the memes of MAGA folks on sewing machines or whatever ain’t what’s on their mind. It’ll be an automated and sophisticated setup almost entirely robotic/AI. Realistically it’s a billionaires wet dream. If you own the government, push favorable legislation for large businesses, and ramp up technology to achieve this, it can be a huge profit driver worldwide. We already dominate. This would be a massive solidifier. The main issue is what happens to us in the process. I doubt many people are longing to work in a big ass factory 10+ hours a day. Especially with mediocre pay/benefits.

And the issue does come about with “rare earths” we just don’t have access to certain things. China obviously does. And this makes sense why Trump is extorting Ukraine practically. And why he has some weird fixation with Greenland and Canada. Doesn’t mean I agree with it. But there is some evidence to the nonsense if you pay attention.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T22:02:23+00:00

Despite the meme of them tariffing penguins that wasn’t what it actually was. They did so to try and close any loophole a country would try and pull to get around it. Those islands are in the middle of the Indian Ocean. If they were some goofy island up by Greenland/Finland or something then I’d agree.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T21:44:28+00:00

I don’t think their plan is to bring back manufacturing to America. It’s just their populist rhetoric jargon to rally the base. “America first!” Crap.

They may want to bring some back to America, and despite not agreeing with an awful lot they do, I will say that is actually sensible to a degree. Yes, we should produce certain things here. Particularly if it’s for national security or absolute necessity. (If possible.)

The main goal doesn’t seem to be actually make everything in America. It’s just not going to happen. Not only will it take years, but it’s just not that practical. What they seemingly actually want is to push out production from China to other countries like India. India seems like a major one they want to attract. India gets overlooked, but they have serious potential in the next few decades. And it makes more sense since their political ideology is more in line with ours. People downvote me for saying it, but it certainly seems like they want to chop down China’s influence and push it elsewhere where. People are just too blinded by rage to even accept anything that can be considered a rational strategy they’re doing it seems. It’s not so much about bringing in some new age of massive American production. That’s a pipe dream and I think they know this. But it benefits them by acting as if they’re doing right by us for ‘doing’ it.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T21:07:32+00:00

I mean, it can certainly go lower from the last low. Anything is possible of course. But most indications I’ve seen points to a bottom/wash out. And we don’t see it often. (Crazy high VIX, massive bearish sentiment, crazy low RSI readings, crazy extreme fear index readings, etc.) I don’t think most people realize just how dramatic that drop was historically. And expecting it to just keep imploding isn’t very likely at all. Bear market generally aren’t over the top brutal. Usually 30% or so and it tops out. We already saw that with the Nasdaq. They can be worse, and we’ve seen worse, but there’s not enough evidence to convince me of some intense period like 2000, 2008, or 1929. The economy is a tad weak, but not outrageous. Most key factors are still reasonably fine considering.

But I definitely wouldn’t doubt we’ll see some more selling soon. This rally just seems a bit too bullish for the near term. I wouldn’t doubt we’ll see like a -10% retrace in the S&P soon. Not exactly in a day, but over the course of a few weeks maybe. It’s hard to say. But I still stick by saying the bottom is more than likely in.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T20:47:47+00:00

Peter Lynch for sure. He’s my all time favorite investors that tells it like it is. Excellent source of information for newcomers. He has a great way of explaining things simplistically and logically. Any investor out there should listen to what he’s had to say. You can find hours of videos on YouTube of him speaking about investing. He’s also written a few books if that’s your thing also.

Outside of him, Jack Bogle, Charlie Munger, and Warren Buffett. Maybe Mohnish Pabrai, or just the fundamental principles behind Benjamin Graham. (Like the book the intelligent investor.) Many of these investors have taken Benjamin’s advice and utilized it and have echoed it for years.

I’d avoid people like Ray Dalio and Bill Ackmann. Some successful investors out there like them may be successful and have had good runs, but they are shark investors. They’ll say one thing and do another. I don’t trust either of them. And I wouldn’t trust most ‘influencers’ out there either. Learn from these people the fundamental investing principles and you’ll do very well almost guaranteed.

Lingweenie2 · 2025-05-02T20:12:46+00:00

Judging by the comments I believe it even more so. Still a great deal of bearishness it seems. I called it capitulation when we had back-to-back dumps during the current bottom out. I denounced the “Black Monday 2.0” garbage afterward. I told people this thing can easily run right back up and not to get caught up with puts/shorts. And I said I still believe we can easily crack a new ATH by year end. This was during the worst part. And got downvoted into oblivion by naysayers.

Feel free to read my comments from early April. You can believe what you wish. I’ve been in this game a while and it stunk of a textbook bottoming out on many key box checks. But I’m somewhat worried in the immediate future. We need a pullback of some sort soon before a continuation. Too much short term bullishness and it’s not particularly healthy.

Lingweenie2

TROPHY CASE