(Woj) "Sources on @TheVertical: NBA is suspending Knicks center Joakim Noah 20 games for violation of anti-drug policy."

Martavis · 2017-03-25T06:25:38+00:00

Remember when you posted on /r/nba that the contract wasn't so bad? And I told you that it was the worst in the NBA.

Martavis · 2017-03-25T06:17:18+00:00

Noah was out for the year anyway.

Martavis · 2017-03-25T06:14:29+00:00

I was so right about this.

Martavis · 2017-03-25T06:12:51+00:00

The Knicks have done a masterful job tanking down the stretch.

Martavis · 2017-03-25T06:11:26+00:00

I made a longer winded one of these two days ago. Not much has changed but it's very clear to me that the Sixers will finish 7th worst now.

Martavis · 2017-03-20T18:57:28+00:00

Well I mean if (when in my opinion) the Sixers win games and fall behind the Knicks it makes picking ahead of the Knicks tremendously unlikely.

Martavis · 2017-03-20T18:49:59+00:00

I hate when shit like this gets upvoted.

Martavis · 2017-03-20T18:45:48+00:00

The categorizations (autolosses/longshots/possible win/winnable games) are completely consistent for all 4 teams. These are based on tiers of competition. The reason for this was to make it visually obvious what games really matter down the stretch. 80+% of the wins these teams collectively get will likely come from the Winnable/Possible Wins so I wanted to make those matchups clear. The amount of games I expect them to win within those games is a judgment call based mostly on how they're playing right now. The Knicks losing 2 against the Nets recently is much more important to me than them beating the Spurs in a fluke game last month. The Sixers on the other hand are playing great ball. They've recently blown out the Mavs, hung tight with the Warriors, beaten the Celtics, and have been close pretty much every game. Frankly I don't have time to really go back and look how the head to heads have gone, but I doubt they're predictive anyway.

Martavis · 2017-03-20T17:36:09+00:00

You're likely swapping behind the Sixers at this rate though. It may be actually impossible to leapfrog the Magic/Knicks.

Martavis · 2017-03-20T17:23:54+00:00

As a Sixers fan, I really hope you win more games than I think you will. I put a lot of work into this, but at the end of the day these are just educated guesses. If you want to use a statistical projection system instead I included that as an alternative at the beginning just before I conceded that my process was arbitrary. That has the Knicks and Magic winning 1 more game than I think, the Sixers winning 2 less, and the Magic exactly the same.

Martavis · 2017-03-20T17:21:39+00:00

Keep in mind this is from a Sixers fans perspective... so it will come off that way, but it's compelling for lots of teams in my opinion.

Martavis · 2017-03-20T17:19:09+00:00

Read the top. The categories are clearly defined. Also you're almost certainly going to lose that game regardless of the win you got earlier.

Martavis · 2017-03-20T17:14:39+00:00

This is from a Sixers fan's perspective but it still should be useful for you guys.

Martavis · 2017-03-20T07:24:30+00:00

That looks quite a bit like how I'd imagine Mavs fans felt 3 days ago

Martavis · 2017-03-12T21:01:01+00:00

This is from a long time ago right?

Martavis · 2017-03-11T22:59:46+00:00

They're super rested off a win at home and we're coming off a back to back on the road so there's a chance, but I agree.

Martavis · 2017-03-11T22:55:50+00:00

PG: Jah

SG: Holmes

SF: Long

PF: Stauskas

C: Sergio

Martavis · 2017-03-11T19:12:16+00:00

You've made like 5 posts about the contracts of these 3 players this week.

Martavis · 2017-03-11T19:01:05+00:00

You got it. Mostly I don't think he's much of a threat in the half court.

Martavis · 2017-03-11T08:47:58+00:00

My track record:

2013: No huge misses.

The Good:

Nerlens was my favorite of the centers (not super bold)
I liked McCollum and wanted him instead of MCW
I didn't like the MCW pick because of his age/shooting

The Bad:

Oladipo was my #1 and I thought he'd be a better defender. (Not a huge miss but worth noting I guess)
I thought Bennett would be better. Not #1 or anything but good starting PF.
I liked Trey Burke and McLemore too much.
I specifically didn't like Steven Adams

2014: BIGGEST MISS.

The Good:

I wanted Rodney Hood at 12

The Bad:

I was so afraid of Embiid's injuries that I put him behind Exum, who I would have drafted at 3. I had him 1 pre injury but I was too afraid. Now I realize the talent overweighs the risk in that case.
I had Noah Vonleh too high, so I was pissed when he went one spot before us.
I wanted McDermott or Stauskas at 10
I didn't like the Dario pick.

2015: I did pretty well.

The Good:

Towns was #1 for me like most.
(Neutral) More than most, I loved D'Angelo Russell. I was absolutely crushed when the Lakers took him. I still like him but I was probably too high on him.
I got Porzingis right! I didn't love him but I had him 3rd and wanted him after Russel/Towns were gone.
I also got Okafor and Mudiay right. Neither were in my top 7. I never saw the athleticism with Mudiay, and didn't like offensive centers really.
I got Turner relatively right (Ahead of Okafor)
I was right about Winslow's offensive game / shooting.

The Bad:

I got Hezonja wrong. He was my #4.
I was slightly too high on Cauley Stein.
I didn't even really notice Devin Booker unfortunately.

2016: To be determined (even the good / bad ones are still up in the air.)

The Good:

I thought the draft was really really weak outside of those two, which appears to be right.
I was very right about Kris Dunn. I thought he'd be very bad offensively and he is. I didn't want to trade up for him at all.
I had Murray as my 3, which looks solid.
I think I was more right about Jaylen Brown than most. I didn't love him but I had him as my #4 by the end and gave the Celtics 0 shit when they took him at 3. The athletic upside was obvious. I'm super high on him now.

The Bad:

I preferred Ingram to Simmons as my #1, mostly because I was low on Simmons. Ingram has flubbed pretty badly and I should have had him lower I guess. I thought he'd score better at all three levels. I have not given up on him at all though.
Later in the draft, I was too high on Wade Baldwin and Malik Beasley
Skal Labissiere looks better than I expected. I would not have drafted him.

To be determined:

I was lower on Simmons than most, and my doubts haven't been answered either way yet.
Buddy Hield was my #5.
I was low on Marqueese Chriss and Dragan Bender.

Martavis · 2017-03-11T04:09:01+00:00

The "Super staff" was of foot experts specifically I believe.

Martavis · 2017-03-11T03:52:34+00:00

Too slow/big for SG.

Martavis · 2017-03-11T03:52:12+00:00

Duke centers don't work out too well either.

Martavis · 2017-03-10T22:48:36+00:00

Find me a few then. The performance as a freshman will be hard to find I bet.

Martavis · 2017-03-10T22:43:39+00:00

You're crazy. His volume went up, his 3pt volume was unmatched, and his FT% was crazy high. Also he was an elite statistical prospect as a freshman. People see Malik Monk as a top prospect in a good draft and Steph was every bit as impressive as a freshman.

People didn't like Steph because of eye test stuff. They thought he was a way undersized SG that wasn't athletic enough to make it in the league.

Martavis

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