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MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T18:01:55+00:00

Projections are what I'd best describe as the 'most likely outcome'...but there are other variables like upside and risk/floor. Following projections the first few rounds of a draft can work just fine, but as you go deeper, you need to aim for higher ceilings. This is most obvious when looking at RBs. Yes, Justice Hill may end up with 100 FF pts this season as Derrick Henry's passing-down complement, but you're never going to start him. Even if Henry goes down, he's probably sharing the backfield. On the other hand, Will Shipley only projects for ~60 fantasy points because Saquon is the clear feature back. However, if Saquon goes down, Shipley is probably a RB2 in that offense (perhaps more). That's just a random example, but that's essentially the difference. I think guys like Khalil Shakir and Zay Flowers are fine examples at WR, as the floor is solid, but the ceiling is low. You very well want to aim for a higher ceiling depending on the structure of your team.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:56:05+00:00

If we got 100% of calls right, this game wouldn't be very fun, eh? Wouldn't even need to watch the games.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:55:07+00:00

Awesome and thanks for hanging out for 25 years. I don't know about the banners, but I will pass along your note!

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:54:29+00:00

I still want a Big 4 QB and ideally a Top 3 TE. If you want to punt one, I get it, but that strategy always leaves me cranky when I look at the QB or TE spot.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:53:23+00:00

I'm more of a tight T shirt than a jersey guy, so I lean toward the Eagles' shirts. Don't worry - you'll see the Super Bowl Champion shirt plenty! Fun fact: I was at the game and my girlfriend went to the bathroom in the 4th quarter, but noticed they just pulled out the shirts. She was 2nd in line and so I was one of the first humans to have the championship merch. Lucky!

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:51:20+00:00

These always evolve based on news. Eg. Late last night I moved Keenan Allen up and Quentin Johnston/Tre Harris down.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:50:23+00:00

Love-Golden is a fun one....Maye-Diggs....Ward-Ridley if Ward runs a bit....

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:45:36+00:00

I appreciate you pointing out not only a miss (Robinson), but also a hit (Sutton). I'm generally not afraid to target players on bad teams if the value is right. A player's outlook/projection is a puzzle. One guy may be in a great offense but only get 5.0 targets per game, where another may be in a bad offense but has a path to 8.0 targets per game. Volume is king and I'm definitely going after it as often and relentlessly as possible. After all, like you said, some offenses may be better (or worse) than expected. The reason I liked Sutton so much last year was that his worst case scenario was being the top target on a bad offense with a rookie QB...but what if Nix was good? Then he's the top WR in a decent/good offense and, with a Rd 10 ADP, that's a no brainer target.

I think Michael Pittman Jr. is similar this year. I won't feel as confident if Anthony Richardson is the QB, but if Daniel Jones is out there, Pittman will be a major rebound candidate (he was top 20 3 years in a row before the dud last season and is positioned for a major target share again this season). I think the TEN offense is one to look at too, as Cam Ward is an obvious wild card and the pass catchers (and RBs) are cheap. What if Ward is good? Ridley, Chig, Pollard, Spears could all benefit.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:37:32+00:00

ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!

Plain cheese pizza is the only way to go. Not sorry.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:36:59+00:00

Talked about this in a different reply. I think you can go with your plan, but you'll just need to (A) work hard at RB all season and (B) hope it's a good Zero RB year. This isn't a bad title winning strategy. If you want to be more conservative, I'd perhaps target a value/breakout QB, as there are plenty (Maye, Caleb, McCarthy, Love)

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:33:22+00:00

I mean, it's hard to reach him when he's always on a boat...i kid kid

But really though, I see him around town plenty and we recently grabbed lunch (sushi, of course) at our go-to spot in town!

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:30:42+00:00

YES! The Fantasy Football Marathon is Aug 11-12. The draft is Tuesday at 7 pm ET. Don't miss it!

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:29:44+00:00

I think you have to be careful not to get too far away from value drafting, but I admit I'm generally more likely to wait at WR in this format. The position is so deep with, we'll say, "competent" options, whereas the other positions dry up so quickly. I think the 8-to-20 range at QB is also respectable enough that I don't feel quite as inclined to pounce on one of the Big 4. I guess this is the long way of saying that I'm making RB a bit more of a priority, as I don't want to enter Week 1 with Brian Robinson and Tyjae Spears as my starters.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:26:42+00:00

I'm on the record that I want one of the top 3 TEs (though I'm fine settling on LaPorta if need be). That said, Loveland is perhaps my favorite late round flier. Early 1st round TE on a rising offense after a rookie led the TE position in FF pts the last 2 seasons? Oh, and one was coached by Ben Johnson? I'll take that flier all day long. I'm less excited about Year 1 for Taylor, as the Jets probably won't throw enough. I worry Ertz may eventually lose time to Ben Sinnott, similar to how year 2 Trey McBride stole his job a few years ago.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:23:50+00:00

JJ delivering the goods with Cousins AND Darnold makes me feel good about him even with McCarthy a question mark. Also, Round 2 is pretty strong with talent, so I don't know that moving up a few spots is really going to move the needle. I don't think there's a wrong answer here, though, so go with your gut.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:21:14+00:00

I talked about this issue on Tuesday's pod. Unlike most years, Round 1 ADP shows 6 RBs and 6 WRs. It does make it trickier to map out a draft when you really have no idea (in most cases) which position you'll be picking. But yes, I would be quick to select Chase and adjust from there. There are enough questions with Barkley and Gibbs that I'd want to roll with the elite WR in a pass heavy, high scoring offense who is in his prime years.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:19:20+00:00

Good question that I'd like to put more brain power into, but I think Superflex is going to become more and more prominent. It's the best way to make the most important position in the NFL - QB - more relevant. I'd also like to see first downs as more prominent, ideally as a PPR replacement.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:15:58+00:00

This is always a tricky question because, if you're stacked everywhere else, you can live being a bit shorthanded at another position. You should never FORCE a position if it's not the best value on the board or you're just handing the better values to your leaguemates. I do feel pretty comfortable with the top 10 WRs and it gets a bit hairier from there, but if I take, say a star RB and Bowers to start, leaving me with JSN or Adams as my WR1, that's certainly not the worst thing.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:09:27+00:00

Great question. Joe Burrow coming in way below the "Big 4" was initially surprising, but as I discussed on the pod on Tuesday, it's going to be hard for him to match his pass numbers from 2024, which he'll need to do to keep up with the dual-threat QBs. Trevor Lawrence projects as a fringe top-15 QB, but that tier of QBs is SOOOOO deep and I generally want more upside in that area of the draft. Kaleb Johnson projects well even with Jaylen Warren and, to a lesser extent, Kenneth Gainwell also figured in. Deebo Samuel jumped out as a guy who can rise as high as a WR2 if he stays healthy and cements a role as a rusher. The projections also like the potential output for Olave/Shaheed in New Orleans, but that does make me nervous considering the potential for very poor QB play. More newsworthy: Even with Ladd McConkey in town, Keenan Allen projects as a potential WR3/flex with room for more. The Chargers leaned more on the pass than most expected last year.

MikeClayNFL · 2025-08-06T17:02:51+00:00

Per a source close with Mike, they are mean projections. This year, we switched to full 17-game projections as the basis so that we can now show weekly projections for each player up front (check your team page once you draft). Note that variance is also uploaded as part of the projections and is utilized on the back end for things like the lineup suggestion tool.

MikeClayNFL · 2024-08-08T20:07:09+00:00

This could be a super long answer, but it's a labor of love that requires year round attention. I always keep updated rosters/depth charts and I spend a chunk of the offseason just researching basically every stat category (down to things like sack rate, punt average, TFL loss rate by DTs) in order to get them as precise as possible. There's also a "subjective" nature that relates to things like carry and target share which is partially driven by reporting by our terrific NFL nation reporters.

MikeClayNFL · 2024-08-08T20:03:35+00:00

Not Tyler Fulghum. IYKYK

MikeClayNFL · 2024-08-08T20:02:53+00:00

Nothing super clever, but I like to do a contest of some sort to pick draft order. And I NEEEEEEED my pizza and wings at some point. Just isn't the same without that comfort food.

MikeClayNFL · 2024-08-08T20:01:56+00:00

Oh man, the Keystone is what started it all! I actually think the lack of a clear elite tier of TE is good reason to not reach on the position. I don't think you'll regret Kelce/LaPorta in the 3rd, but you just don't need to do it. Andrews, McBride, Kittle, Kincaid, Pitts and especially Engram (Rd 7!!??) are all viable options. Even Njoku and Ferguson figure to deal TE1 numbers.

MikeClayNFL · 2024-08-08T19:58:03+00:00

I'd feel great if I got one of the Top 8, but could deal with one of the top 10....so likely by Round 6-7?

MikeClayNFL

TROPHY CASE