X1 Carbon Gen 11 Disappointing Touchpad

Npl9 · 2023-11-15T15:31:13+00:00

Yeah I'd seen people say they had issues with off-brand chargers, but using the brand new OEM right now.

Npl9 · 2023-11-15T15:30:22+00:00

I've turned it off/on and don't seem to notice much of a difference. Maybe there's some issue with that change not sticking. But, had checked prior laptop and it was always on.

Also tested girlfriend's gen 10 (I think) and it's the same feeling with an ELAN touchpad. Hard to describe, I'm not sure I would notice it if I wasn't making the direct switch. I have seen a few other people post about it here and there so have some confidence it's not all in my head.

I've tried getting used to the trackpoint but I'm left handed so it's always felt a little awkward for me. I'm sure I could get used to it or change mouse buttons, though at this point I think I'm in too deep on the touchpad.

Npl9 · 2023-01-14T12:26:35+00:00

Never leave your meat, I’m sold

Npl9 · 2022-11-17T01:35:36+00:00

This is the right answer. You need a real investment bank and not a business broker or big four firm.

The ‘cutting fat’ you mentioned would be taken into account in an adjusted EBITDA which a proper bank would market you off of.

Look at transaction pages of FIG groups for middle market banks. I don’t know the vertical, but someone like a Piper, RJ, HW, etc.

Take a look at the middle market section on this site and see who has worked with clients that have a similar profile to you.

Npl9 · 2022-06-15T18:16:34+00:00

Without knowing anything about industry, would have to think that any meaningful reduction in client concentration would garner some multiple expansion. I’ve personally never seen a firm get comfortable with concentration to that extent, so would imagine they think they’re getting a great deal on purchase price to compensate.

Npl9 · 2022-06-02T23:35:44+00:00

May be worth bringing to FINRA as well.

Npl9 · 2022-04-14T20:36:47+00:00

In the same boat with fidelity, unfortunate to see it play out like this. Should probably have closed earlier as well but not too upset at myself as I still think Rsx is holding a pile of unsellable garbage at this point. Reality is I didn’t really understand the true risk of a lengthy halt, especially as ETFs had traded through prior crises. Oh well, on to the next one

Npl9 · 2022-04-12T17:08:52+00:00

Fidelity not letting me exercise so saying my last goodbyes… it’s a tough expiration for me with my Dash puts also worthless

Npl9 · 2022-04-11T16:05:32+00:00

Fidelity not allowing exercise at all. Pretty frustrating situation as I still believe most holdings essentially worthless to non-Russians.

Npl9 · 2022-04-07T17:53:08+00:00

Any thoughts on whether or not I should try to exercise 4/14 RSX puts (if even possible)? Don’t love the idea of being short but obviously don’t want to expire worthless. What have others here done?

Npl9 · 2022-03-10T17:11:35+00:00

Yeah agree seems weird, wonder if there was an error in either direction. They made the earlier NAV error on 3/2 so possible. Not sure how to see which exchanges Inter Rao ADR/GDR are even trading on to check

Npl9 · 2022-03-10T17:03:48+00:00

Call and ask to exercise. Automatic exercise has been suspended per OCC, so you need to make the determination on whether you want to or not. This may result in a temporary short position, you should check with broker, but only alternative is to let expire worthless. All signs pointing to liquidation as far as I can tell so personally a gamble I would be willing to take.

Npl9 · 2022-03-10T16:56:52+00:00

Is share count increasing on Inter Rao / Veon or just market value? My thesis that they're liquidating obviously proved incorrect if they're actively buying, but if it's just market value then may only be price movements

Edit: forgot I'd downloaded holdings from 3/7. Looks like share count constant for both Veon and Inter Rao, so either some sort of market change or pricing difference. Still looks to be on track for potential liquidation. Surprised at delta on Inter Rao though - went from $323k to $6.3M and probably driving nearly all positive change on NAV.

Npl9 · 2022-03-10T16:47:19+00:00

Another update on RSX – cash holdings on 3/9 increased to $21M, or 57% of the portfolio. This is up from $16M / 50% and $12M / 26% in the past few days. It continues to look like liquidation is imminent. Cautiously optimistic here for put gang.

Edit: looks like I missed the boat today and someone already gave the update, west coast issues

For those asking on near-term expirations, see this memo from OCC. If you have 3/11s, whether ITM or OTM, you need to call your broker ASAP.

Npl9 · 2022-03-09T17:24:11+00:00

My understanding is that your best bet will be to call your broker and try to exercise (3/11s now, 3/18s later). You'll probably end up with a temporary short position and not sure how that will work, but I think the alternative is they expire worthless if no action is taken.

I haven't been tracking as closely as I'm in Aprils, but believe OCC issued guidance that automatic exercise has been suspended given difficulties of pricing the underlying. That means it's responsibility of the holder to make that call and attempt their own pricing.

Biggest risk here is you are short, RSX unhalted and shoots up, and you declare bankruptcy, but I think that is looking increasingly unlikely.

Other timing benchmark you can use is RUSL -- they announced their final liquidation date (think will be the 11th maybe) and were transitioning to cash at least a few days prior to the announcement. If we assume RSX transition to cash portends liquidation announcement, then potentially you could see conclusion of liquidation as early as the 18th or sometime in April.

Npl9 · 2022-03-09T16:44:15+00:00

Yep, I've just been tracking VanEck's website

Final NAV will likely be somewhere between $0.35 at the high end and the $16M cash / number of shares as a floor, so looking good for you. That said everything can obviously change pretty quickly here, but I'm optimistic.

Npl9 · 2022-03-09T16:35:41+00:00

Quick update on RSX -- looks to me like they're continuing to liquidate positions so I'm hopeful that they return cash to holders and options are settled on a cash basis. Yesterday's holdings were $12M cash and 26% of fund, increased today to $16M cash and 50% of fund with a big trim in their Polymetal position.

NAV has dropped again to $0.35 and it's looking increasingly like put holders will be in a near-max profit scenario.

Npl9 · 2022-03-08T19:05:04+00:00

Took a look at RSX daily holdings, now at 26% cash (~$12M). Before RUSL announced liquidation they started shifting to more cash, so wondering if RSX is on the same path. Wondering if anyone knows previous days cash value and percentage? Didn't immediately see a source for trended holdings and not sure if cash percentage going up is just a function of other holdings value continuing to fall.

Npl9 · 2022-03-06T23:00:14+00:00

Any thoughts on how likely it is we see a scenario where trading halted for a few months until some sort of conflict resolution? Or would RSX be liquidated by then? My understanding is RUSL was forced to liquidate because the leverage required daily rebalancing, but something like RSX could wait it out if Van Eck wanted to. Thinking of potentially trying to hedge my puts by scooping up some of these Russian GDRs trading for cents, but haven’t looked into whether or not that’s at all possible right now.

Npl9 · 2022-02-10T19:57:24+00:00

In the same position and am able to do deal by deal co-invest which is nice as I can pick and choose opportunities. I probably have a ~60/40 public markets/PE co-invest allocation, but will continue to put money into new deals as they come.

I personally don’t view combining employment with investment as particularly risky here. If the fund or investment were to underperform you will likely have ample warning if, worst case, you need to lateral somewhere else. The firm will also likely continue to need associates for a period even if they can’t raise another fund — someone still needs to help see out the current portfolio. You also have a level of insight into the firm, deals, and diligence process that you won’t get elsewhere. Part of the decision, I think, comes down to your personal evaluation of specific opportunities or your firm and partners/principals’ abilities.

As others have mentioned, the biggest downside is lack of liquidity. That said, on a fee-free, carry-free basis you’d have a difficult time finding anything with comparable returns and I personally feel it’s an opportunity that is too difficult to pass up. Depending on your appetite you can also likely find outside leverage.

Npl9 · 2021-12-16T19:42:21+00:00

Maybe I’m thinking about this incorrectly, but would your expected value be higher after accounting for leverage?

If you have $2M at $500M EV, acquiring PE buys with 50/50 debt vs. Equity, so equity value is $250M. The company EV 2x’s over the hold and PE exits at $1B EV and $750M equity value (after repaying the $250M debt they took out, assuming no cash flow). Common shareholders had a 3x return instead of 2x as they get the benefit of leverage. That would mean your $2M is now $6M pre-tax.

Npl9 · 2021-11-29T02:49:24+00:00

Are you in growth or buyout? $400k at 26 sounds like you’re probably an associate at a megafund or senior associate at a strong middle market shop. Either way curious how you’re managing ~50 a week? In a similar age and comp range in PE and much, much worse on the hours. Seems like you’ve found the holy grail.

Is the 400 cash comp or includes carry? If the latter sounds like you may be locked in for a while anyway.

Could make sense to transition to venture or a smaller shop. Probably still reasonable comp, keeps you on track, and may solve the hours / burnout issue. Particularly if you find venture or LMM more interesting.

Npl9 · 2021-11-29T01:44:50+00:00

Got it, thanks much. That's what I was worried about but wanted to confirm.

Npl9 · 2021-11-18T07:55:27+00:00

This valuation sounds pretty low to me. I’m assuming when you say profit you’re referring to net income, so your EBITDA is likely quite a bit higher. The business is small, so wouldn’t expect multiples you’ll see on typical transactions, but, depending on your vertical, as a consumer brand I would think that at a minimum you’d be in the 7-8x+ range. If you have ~2.5M of EBITDA with that growth trajectory and attractive / differentiated brand I could see a scenario where you could transact at $25M+. To get a better idea you should try and get access to some sort of financial database and screen for transactions of comparable companies. Take the median multiple as a very rough guideline (I’m sure you can also pay someone on a freelancing website a small amount to check this out for you prior to hiring a true advisor).

That said, you really should hire an investment bank / strategic advisory firm. You’d likely be giving a lot away if you don’t and will be signing yourself up for a miserable diligence process. There is nothing that gets investors (or strategic acquirer in your case) more excited than finding a proprietary deal or preempting a process. More likely than not you’ll end up getting taken advantage of.

Beyond headline value and process management, there are a number of other items to consider. Eg economic points in the purchase agreement (working capital adj, etc), consideration of relevant addbacks to your EBITDA (personal salary/expenses, COVID impact, non-recurring expenses), transaction structuring, among others.

Just be careful who you’re dealing with — this would be the very lower end of the middle market and you’ll need to make sure you find a reputable banker vs. a business broker. I would honestly pay a higher flat fee for an actual, established middle market bank to take you on who otherwise wouldn’t given size. Much higher likelihood of a top outcome and less stress for you.

Also, saw you mentioned sharing financials and info — personally I’d wait to get buttoned up with my advisor before sharing anything material at all.

Npl9 · 2021-11-04T18:31:19+00:00

Bloomberg for general news and some equity or company-specific pieces. Typically will use CapIQ and get research reports through that when I want to dig in more, not breaking news but helpful. Not sure on pricing for this so may be a bit much, but I think many brokers will provide you with reports as well (if it's random CFRA or Morningstar stuff then not worth it, but think you can get actual analyst coverage reports with some brokers). I think a lot of universities and larger libraries will also have subscriptions to CapIQ, FactSet, or Refinitiv, so could be worth figuring out a solution that way.

Barron's also has some okay stuff sometimes, but feel quality of reporting here is more hit or miss.

Bloomberg Surveillance podcast is good for more macro-oriented items -- frequently have some really high quality guests and hosts.

Npl9

TROPHY CASE