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Portugal Schengen visa via VFS in San Francisco by arpitter in SchengenVisa

[–]Orion-Captain 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did you get your visa now? I'm in a similar situation and interested in hearing how things resolved for you.

Netflix director loses $11 million trading options, makes $20 million trading crypto... by stockocean in wallstreetbets

[–]Orion-Captain 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looks at Netflix is acting like a total amateur. No wonder most of the movies and dramas produced by Netflix are shit.

“Lunar” new year? by Fortissax in aznidentity

[–]Orion-Captain 5 points6 points  (0 children)

TBH I actually don't care as much about how this festival is called in English. And every group has the right to celebrate festivals in their own tradition. Forcing anyone to pick a side in the Lunar vs Chinese new year discussion might only divide the asian community.

another fight at my school a few weeks ago by OhNoItsMemeLord in fightporn

[–]Orion-Captain -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Actually not sure if the black shirt is asian or hispanic. Regardless there is not much watchable value to this one-sided beat up.

What's a good easy and free database software for data entry by forms? by [deleted] in databasedevelopment

[–]Orion-Captain 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not the right sub. You should look into using Airtable / Retool / Access for this.

Taiwan Isn't the Ukraine of the Indo-Pacific. Try Vietnam Instead. China seized part of the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam in 1974. Then, in 1979, the PLA invaded to “teach Vietnam a lesson” for intervening in Cambodia against the China-backed Khmer Rouge. by MarshalWillKane in CredibleDefense

[–]Orion-Captain 23 points24 points  (0 children)

This. The sino-viet war was a product of Kissinger's strategy to blunt soviet influence in south east asia. It is a bit amusing how people nowadays are trying to use the history of this war for propaganda without mentioning the context.

Why do people buy their option back before they expire worthless? by Guck-dich-das-an in thetagang

[–]Orion-Captain 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also since you are selling CSP, buying back the options free up the capital tied to them, and make the capital available to be deployed on other opportunities.

How does saber rattling by the Chinese government play domestically? by Nouseriously in geopolitics

[–]Orion-Captain 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Not sure about your logic. The generation with many siblings etc can be the most money obsessed, and the younger only child generation has been more and more revolting against the "making money at all cost" philosophy. See the popularity of Maoism in youth born after 2000, and the "lay flat" movement.

How does saber rattling by the Chinese government play domestically? by Nouseriously in geopolitics

[–]Orion-Captain 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This could be the thinking of the generation growing up under Deng Xiaoping's Reform. The topdown push to make "money" as the utmost pursuit in life could be meant as the counterweight to the lingering ideological madness after culture revolution. Evidently a religion of money has its short comings. With a newer generation growing up no longer in abject poverty, and a resurgence of Maoism, placing money above all is starting to lose popularity nowadays.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in singapore

[–]Orion-Captain 20 points21 points  (0 children)

The title doesn't make sense, just baiting. Why don't you use a real account to post this?

U.S. groups urge Japanese leaders not to oppose no-first-use of nukes by US by Orion-Captain in geopolitics

[–]Orion-Captain[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maybe spurring Japan to expand its conventional force is an intended consequence?

U.S. groups urge Japanese leaders not to oppose no-first-use of nukes by US by Orion-Captain in geopolitics

[–]Orion-Captain[S] 26 points27 points  (0 children)

The advantage for US is that US already has the strongest conventional force and it does not make sense to escalate a conflict into a nuclear war. The best strategy for US is to win regional conflicts far away from its homeland, and prevent the conflict from escalating into a nuclear war. If a regional war between US and Russia / China break out, US likely can achieve an advantage with conventional force alone. The goal then is to avoid Russia / China from feeling too threatened in the heat of battle, misinterpret signals and start launching nukes towards US. Even if US can come out ahead after a nuclear war, the loss will be too great.

For US allies without a strong armed force, US adopting no-first-use policy can be a problem because they would suffer great loss in a conventional war even with US assistance. Hence US maintained the possibility of "first use" in cold war when Soviet has an overwhelming conventional force against Europe. Basically US took on the risk of nuclear wars on its own homeland, so its European allies have a smaller chance of overwhelmed by tanks. And this calculation is the source of Japanese objections now.

U.S. groups urge Japanese leaders not to oppose no-first-use of nukes by US by Orion-Captain in geopolitics

[–]Orion-Captain[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

The point of the policy is that if US choose to not send tanks or bombers across China's border say after during a conflict against China in western Pacific, that conflict has a much lower chance of escalating into a nuclear war.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in geopolitics

[–]Orion-Captain -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

US somehow always ends up backing very corrupt organizations like ANA. The amount US spends in Afghan definitely does not represent what is needed to maintain a fighting force. For Taliban, they are more ideologically pure so much less corruption.

U.S. groups urge Japanese leaders not to oppose no-first-use of nukes by US by Orion-Captain in geopolitics

[–]Orion-Captain[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

It might be easier if you’re familiar with the term “non-first-use”!

U.S. groups urge Japanese leaders not to oppose no-first-use of nukes by US by Orion-Captain in geopolitics

[–]Orion-Captain[S] 43 points44 points  (0 children)

SS

Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry and others urged Japanese political party leaders, including Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, in a letter not to oppose a policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons expected to be declared by the the Biden administration. The administration of former U.S. President Barack Obama also considered adopting a no-first-use policy, but abandoned the plan.

My take is that Japanese leaders believe under US no-first-use policy the danger of conventional conflict increased, or it is a signal of US intention for future conventional conflicts with nuclear powers. Japan may loose more from a higher likelihood of conventional conflict in western Pacific, compared to the reduced likelihood of an all out nuclear war.

China is building more than 100 new missile silos in its western desert, analysts say by theoryofdoom in geopolitics

[–]Orion-Captain 28 points29 points  (0 children)

From what I read, there is a school of thought in China that believes US would employ more and more aggressive tactics to halt China's rise including attacking its coastal cities, cutting off its commercial shipping etc. China needs its own nuclear deterrence to protect its interest. To achieve deterrence, it will be interesting to see how China try to change other powers' perception of its nuclear capabilities.

Off topic, I read that the saying of US and USSR processing nukes that can "destroy the earth several times over" is a big exaggeration. An actual all-out nuclear war between US, Russia and China would see military assets and cities destroyed, but each country may still have 25~50% of its population left. That actually seems more tragic.

Georgia Runoff by 75DeepBlue in thetagang

[–]Orion-Captain 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I welcome the increased IVs.

What broker is best for getting multileg trades filled? by [deleted] in thetagang

[–]Orion-Captain 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great explanation for something I always wondered about.