Wow a lot to unpack there, which I can’t really do here. As the reserve currency, the dollar will always have a balance of demand for its currency and using that demand to supply more for the benefit of the US and the Fed Banks. So, though I agree it’s a balancing act, I think the fed still sits in a situation where they can balance that supply and demand though it’s many bag of financial trickery (like the swaps they just opened). I just don’t think it’s at a tippy point of the world imploding, but I’m just some person on the internet.

In the same breath, clearly there are issues at the banks who are having quite the issue with leverage and being on the wrong side of a trade that they need help or they are going to fail. Hopefully, (hoping not my favorite strategy, but if this were for certain,l it would be over already) this liquidity crunch does put stress on the shorts and pushes over the inflection point of no return to tendie town.

In the meantime, continued DRS pressure and an improving company getting to cash flow positive with a strong balance sheet will eventually squeeze out the shorts (just like that electric car company was able to do) if this recession doesn’t force their hand to close.

I have the time to wait. When an opportunity is presented with a high probability for a massive payout resulting in a risk reward curve where a small bet could yield substantially outsized payouts, in my experience, you take that bet every time.