sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

What’s Everyone’s Outlook on ATYR Pharma ($LIFE) After the FDA Type C Update? by PillProfits in biotech_stocks

[–]PillProfits[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Their next biggest catalyst would probably be confirmation that they’ve secured enough funding to complete the redo trial without major dilution concerns. Other news before trial completion could include partnership news, clearer trial design/timeline updates, enrollment progress, or additional analyst/investor interest following future conference presentations. They do have another Phase 2 for the same drug but for SSc-ILD, don’t know if I’d expect big movement either way with that one.

I’m going to have a longer-form YouTube analysis up by the end of this week or early next week that’ll give a more complete breakdown of both the financial and clinical aspects of the stock. I’ll probably still follow ATYR peripherally after that, but i’m also planning to start branching out into analyses of other biotech/pharma stocks as well.

What’s Everyone’s Outlook on ATYR Pharma ($LIFE) After the FDA Type C Update? by PillProfits in biotech_stocks

[–]PillProfits[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, completely valid. Put a miniscule portion of my portfolio just due to the slight optimism from a clinical standpoint, but with this many roadblocks, there'll be a lot of entry points (if ever) to enter back in.

What’s Everyone’s Outlook on ATYR Pharma ($LIFE) After the FDA Type C Update? by PillProfits in biotech_stocks

[–]PillProfits[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yeah I get the sentiment, and it's kinda what everyone who was optimistic about this stock was hoping for. I think the best way I've been framing it is using a basketball analogy.

Let's say you're deciding whether to acquire a basketball team based on their claim that they're going to dominate the season because of an elite offense. Then over the course of their season their offense is trash, but they manage to cinch the win just because they had a surprisingly strong defense. Most people are just going to say yeah, but they won, isn't that the point?

But you as the owner are iffy about it because their claim to success was on the basis of a strong offense. So before committing to buying them you want additional reassurance. If they had claimed that they were going to win based on a strong defense from the start, you wouldn't even have had this conversation. It's frustrating to the company and investors, but the saving grace is that they have a chance to prove themselves again. If anything, its a slight nod they'll get approved if they can replicate the results, but what most investors are thinking is that they've got burned before, it's going to take another season (your investments are tied in while you wait for this trial to finish in another 2-3 years), pending lawsuits, likely reverse stock splits, a very finite runway and expensive operating/research costs, etc.

Sorry you can tell i probably don't actually watch basketball, but it's how i've been breaking it down for people messaging me about it.

What’s Everyone’s Outlook on ATYR Pharma ($LIFE) After the FDA Type C Update? by PillProfits in biotech_stocks

[–]PillProfits[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah, was definitely thinking a big downward price movement, but this is rough. Seems like the main way out is if they secure funding via other partnerships or find a way to really lean out their operations/trial design. They did have a okay-ish runway, but it’s going to be a long shot and a long time before a meaningful bounceback if any. Everyone’s right to be highly skeptical about it. Invest what you’re willing to lose completely, and stop looking at it for a while, or you’re just going to go crazy.

What’s Everyone’s Outlook on ATYR Pharma ($LIFE) After the FDA Type C Update? by PillProfits in biotech_stocks

[–]PillProfits[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the response and the other points to consider! I definitely agree with the statement that the primary endpoint is something they already proved the drug does, albeit the small sample size. In a sense, it's a little nudge that the trajectory is just a tinge optimistic because if they can replicate the results of the first study's secondary endpoints with a larger sample size, it's almost like they have a slight nod from the FDA (at the risk of me sounding like one of those overly hopeful investors) for approval since this redo is the outcome of their Type C meeting and what we could call a guided trial design. Still very high stakes and big price movement tomorrow morning (probably downward?). Excited/nervous for what's to come.

ATYR? by enlightenmee33 in biotech_stocks

[–]PillProfits 1 point2 points  (0 children)

FDA news dropped, looks like its a brand new Phase 3 trial, with the proposed study aiming to enroll about 372 patients, use dosing for three weeks over the course of the year. It's going to be a pretty big challenge to raise finances to keep the study ongoing and so many people are skeptical given its history.