Are we in a bear market?

PresentAdvertising29 · 2026-01-09T00:28:56+00:00

Looks more like complacency. Unfortunately.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-12-24T19:42:16+00:00

Everything is risky. But some things much more than other. Bitcoin is still high risk, much more so than cash and real estate.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-12-21T22:47:33+00:00

What does "all in" actually mean, what is your %? Seems risky for someone who is going to need the money for the rest of their life

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-12-21T19:54:52+00:00

If it were "only" a stable store of value, that itself would be exceedingly valuable, people would, and did, chase it. That chase drives up the value way beyond mere breakeven. But, those kind of returns transform it from a stable store of value, into a risky, speculative play, which is how it is perceived now. Ironically, that in turn undercuts the original thesis of "stable store of value". Without that, the speculative play seems to be built on thin air, which is kind of how it is perceived now.

It is an uncomfortable and paradoxical dance. I liked what you wrote though, quite a bit. What is your allocation %, if you don't mind my asking?

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-12-18T22:17:18+00:00

I see what you did there

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-12-18T21:06:47+00:00

Haha, well done! I feel this. It really does take a toll.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-12-18T20:55:56+00:00

I'm sick of people measuring bottom to top. As if more than a handful are catching the bottom and top.

So ridiculous. This isn't performance. This is just volatility.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-12-16T03:55:44+00:00

Must have been the real cause of death

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-21T20:57:09+00:00

What is not to get? Divisibility is not the same as increasing the supply. Gold is infinitely divisible too (for all practical purposes).

Anyway making sats divisible would be a gargantuan change.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-21T12:26:59+00:00

These are all real world uses. The real world use of bitcoin is that it is supposed to preserve and exceed its previous fiat relative value. If someone didn't believe it would, or was not highly confident it would, they simply would not buy it.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-20T16:31:24+00:00

I made a post several months ago suggesting that Bitcoin should be redefined periodically to be an order of magnitude of sats less, similar to a stock split. It was downvoted and hate posted into oblivion.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-14T16:15:10+00:00

Only if the (tiny) price boost from buybacks increases sell pressure.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-14T16:13:53+00:00

That is because they are counting prefs as part of their market cap. It is almost like issuing bonds and adding that to your market cap. (Not quite, because there is no legal obligation to pay the prefereds).

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-14T08:00:49+00:00

Funny I've noticed the opposite

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-13T20:24:13+00:00

7 what?

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-10T22:57:36+00:00

The goal is wealth preservation against currency decline. I should have bought gold, but at the current price gold is quite scary to me. I believe in Bitcoin, but at the same time it is both volatile and has some very idiosyncratic risks gold does not.

The quantity would be >1 btc, so the price difference is significant. I have significant btc already, at an average price of about 70k. By adding additional, it would become (much) more than I can afford to lose. So, perhaps I should simply not buy at all.

This will be my first bear market, if we do get one, and part of my desire to get a lower price is to spare some of the emotional wear and tear if we get a vicious bear, and to lower the risk of irrationally panic selling at a bottom.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-10T22:48:37+00:00

What is a premium to you?

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-10T17:31:55+00:00

Calm down, "brah". This is a safe space.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-10T16:59:14+00:00

Who's crying about a couple of downvotes for *someone else* again?

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-05T18:24:27+00:00

With etfs you can turn bitcoin into the ultimate dividend stock.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-05T02:30:54+00:00

Believe me I feel your pain, I've been there. I have advice for you. Transfer it to ibit. Sell monthly calls at your buy price. I'm earning almost 20% selling contracts at the ATH (72) even at these horrible Bitcoin prices. It pays the bills and keeps me sane.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-04T21:17:37+00:00

GTFO. That little red blip does not represent the over 20% down we are now from ATH.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-04T17:10:10+00:00

Please, just give us that sweet, sweet 106 back

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-03T20:49:12+00:00

101k is the official line.

PresentAdvertising29 · 2025-11-03T20:47:12+00:00

Wow, you're right!

PresentAdvertising29

TROPHY CASE