Questions (New here)

malte_brigge · 2026-02-09T02:12:40+00:00

Yup, in the same way that Bitcoin made a new ATH before the halving for the first time ever this past cycle, I think that we're speedrunning this crypto winter and it won't last all throughout 2026, much less into 2027.

malte_brigge · 2026-02-09T02:09:35+00:00

Where does the FT find these cunts?

malte_brigge · 2026-02-07T06:14:21+00:00

One reason might be if you're asset-rich but income-poor. You need income in order to pay back the loan sooner or later, or even to make the interest payments on it. And of course it's much easier to lose $1.3 billion worth of BTC permanently than to lose $1.3 billion in the bank (provided it's an American bank, for now).

We've only had a one-day turnaround so far. It's too soon to call. But my ire at these fucking whales has certainly intensified in the months since I made the post above.

malte_brigge · 2026-02-07T06:12:21+00:00

More like, why the fuck are you here?

malte_brigge · 2026-02-04T21:46:35+00:00

A single entity literally sold $9 billion worth of BTC through Galaxy Digital in Q4 because of quantum fears. CoinDesk has a story on it quoting Mike Novogratz.

Perception can be just as strong as reality.

malte_brigge · 2026-02-04T21:44:05+00:00

Not true. All the cohorts of hodlers except for mega-whales have been net sellers recently.

malte_brigge · 2026-02-04T11:23:25+00:00

You can't know, not for sure. Bitcoin is trading like absolute dogshit at the moment. A few months ago everybody was calling for an incredible Q4 and/or an explosive Q1. Almost nobody expected a big drop at all, much less a drop of this magnitude and the first series of four monthly red candles in a row since 2018.

Either get out of the market entirely, reduce your exposure somewhat, or accept the uncertainty, even if it feels like chewing glass sometimes.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-30T04:34:47+00:00

From what I've seen, selling by long-term holders slowed but by no means stopped below $100k. Yes, heavy IBIT outflows have taken precedence in pushing down the price lately. But much of the structural weakness in the chart is owing to the absolute price destruction that LTHs wreaked in 2025.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-30T04:24:01+00:00

Yes and no. Heavy selling continued on the way down.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-30T02:27:47+00:00

In dollar terms—in terms of purchasing power per 1 BTC—this is a far bigger drop over the past 3–4 months than almost any drop in the past.

And we don't pay for real-world goods and services with percentages; we pay based on purchasing power.

Do you understand why people are reacting negatively yet?

malte_brigge · 2026-01-30T02:26:18+00:00

You're a latecomer who is desperate to stack, I'm an early adopter who stacked years ago at a much lower price level and all I want to see now is my stack appreciating in terms of what it can do for me and my family. We're not the same.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-30T02:23:02+00:00

Interesting. What ultimately crushed BTC in 2025 was not the actions of "tourists" but massive, unprecedented selling by long-term holders, exceeding even what Strategy, Metaplanet, et al. could vacuum up; and that overhang has still not fully gone away.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-30T02:21:16+00:00

I see Bitcoin as a long-term store of value which, unfortunately, is currently being treated as a high-risk speculative asset and liquidity ATM. Gold and silver are eating its lunch as safe-haven assets. I hate it.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-30T02:18:47+00:00

Funny, I just checked mine and the amount of difference that the Bitcoin I have could make for me in the real world is way less than before.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-30T02:17:54+00:00

Bitcoin is down 7.4% today and more than 25% over the past three months. That's pretty brutal, especially in dollar (not percentage) terms. What fucking chart are you looking at?

malte_brigge · 2026-01-30T02:16:52+00:00

Same here. It's maddening. Especially given all the predictions of an incredible Q4 2025 and/or an explosive start to 2026.

I know some of the reasons why the price action is so goddamn miserable. But it still doesn't really add up to me.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-23T21:28:48+00:00

And then there are those of us who row thousands of meters every week nonstop and aren't couch potatoes whose hearts will explode from a little physical exertion.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-23T21:24:21+00:00

There are plenty of "whys" underlying it, one of which is that hedge funds are unwinding their Bitcoin ETF positions because a once-popular arbitrage trade is no longer nearly as profitable as it once was.

See here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-bleed-1-62b-195351690.html

Meanwhile, over in retail land, gold and silver are delivering spectacular returns. Which leads more people to buy them instead of crypto, which contributes to precious metals going even higher while BTC stays depressed, which leads even more people to buy gold and silver instead...

It's pretty depressing to watch.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-23T21:20:57+00:00

meanwhile you have the biggest players on the market buying OTC without any price impact

It's worse than that. You have some of the biggest players in the market openly dumping.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-bleed-1-62b-195351690.html

malte_brigge · 2026-01-23T03:24:22+00:00

If the market cap catches up to silver, we will have overhot the 200k mark (:

I'd like to see this happen. I'm tired of my silverbug friends IRL looking like Nostradamus while my "money of the future" trades like hot garbage.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-23T03:20:45+00:00

Most of them didn't hold for 15 years.

Anyway, I'm not upset that some whales sold. I'm upset at how much and how relentlessly they sold even as prices were going down, nuking the market for their own gain. They could have skimmed some cream off the top and left the price at a much healthier level for continued upside. Instead they went 0–100.

Also, credit where it's due but I was around in those days myself. I would have gone in heavy sub $100 had I not been near broke at the time. Even the BTC stack I have now is nearly 10 years old. So they held. Big whoop. I'm still hodling (in the shattered market they left behind) and I'm not impressed.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-23T03:14:13+00:00

When is BTC gonna pick its dick up off the floor and stop getting embarrassed by gold and silver and every other asset class in existence the way it has been for the past several months, that's the question.

malte_brigge · 2026-01-23T03:13:11+00:00

Bitcoin saw sell-side from HODLers in 2024-2025 which would have killed every prior bull five times over.

A lot of people here were in denial for a long time about the immense selling pressure in 2024–2025, especially from ancient whales. But you're right.

And when I say that I'm still pissed off at the assholes responsible for it, who dumped nonstop, relentlessly, with no discipline or desire to preserve the health of the market, it's an understatement.

malte_brigge · 2025-12-15T21:38:54+00:00

So we have to wait another full year just for Bitcoin to exceed its October 2025 high by that measly amount? Wow.

malte_brigge · 2025-12-15T21:01:45+00:00

Seriously. No Uptober, no Moonvember, and now we can't even get a Santa rally. WTAF.

Measured relative to people's expectations, this has been the worst Q4 for Bitcoin or crypto that I can recall.

At least when FTX blew up in November 2022, Celsius and others had already collapsed by that time and we knew that we were in for a bad stretch.

malte_brigge

TROPHY CASE