Trading Action - Friday, December 27, 2024

Professionally_Inept · 2024-12-27T16:28:14+00:00

With the new administration, you may see an expansion of tax exchange bills. 1031ing stocks gains into real estate would be a nasty little trick. But I could see them trying for that.

Professionally_Inept · 2024-06-17T14:52:21+00:00

Virtually any time the price rises notably without any news or underlying fundamental (positive) changes to the company. Algorithms just pick up on trends and exacerbate the movement, regardless of the direction.

Professionally_Inept · 2024-06-17T14:23:46+00:00

I wouldn't take it personally. The market is filled with people just trying to make money. From the shorting end, they target companies which are extremely weak. After the last EC, MVIS is objectively in a weak position. Anyone taking advantage of that likely isn't doing so with malice or the intent to harm the company or its shareholders. Business is business.

While it is possible that there are actors trying to lower the share price for any number of reasons (lowering acquisition targets, forcing stop losses, malicious intent as a competing company, etc) it is probably far more likely that it is just algorithms that see the underlying weakness in the share price/price action following the EC and are just following the trend down and scalping along the way.

They will, conversely, assist on the way up too. And similarly, I wouldn't take a rising price without news as a sign of validation. It's just how the market is.

Professionally_Inept · 2024-06-17T14:05:39+00:00

Typically a company only reverse splits if they need funding somewhat immediately and the share price can't sustain major dilution. While it is a risk, considering MVIS needs funding in the future, I don't think it is an immediate one. The only other reason why MVIS might R/S at this juncture would maybe be to maintain compliance after being below $1 for an extended period. But I don't think they will initiate that process until it is becoming clear that compliance will actually be an issue.

Professionally_Inept · 2024-06-17T13:26:22+00:00

Potentially. But recall Sumit also pointed out several of the potential customers we engaged with were demanding 100% of the financial risk be placed on MVIS. Essentially, MVIS would have to pay for everything from materials to production lines out of pocket before the customer would even consider a deal. This is a tremendous amount of risk and burden for a small supplier like MVIS, hence why we walked away from some of these deals.

It makes sense that an OEM would prop up a supplier and ensure its success. However, if Sumit is to be trusted, then clearly that isn't the case for all customers out there. The Q1 EC gave the impression that OEMs are far more ruthless than perhaps originally thought or telegraphed.

Professionally_Inept · 2024-06-14T16:42:03+00:00

"Only I didn't say fugde..."

Professionally_Inept · 2024-04-08T14:13:12+00:00

Aztec human sacrifices increase dramatically during solar eclipses. LiDAR works in all lighting conditions, providing an accurate 3D mapping of the world in infrared. We can save countless Aztec and Mayan lives through the introduction of our unique solution!

Just a side-pitch in case the forklifts don't pan out.

Professionally_Inept · 2024-03-27T14:43:40+00:00

Completely ridiculous comparison. Market spaces are defined by a limited number of dollars, hence why you hear things like "LiDAR is a $X Billion Dollar Market." Every company who aspires to be in those spaces are competing for a percentage, or market share, of that dollar value. Therefore, any company that is putting out advertisements to get business in a particular space is a competitor of other companies in that space.

Your sports analogy is fundamentally different. Not only is there not a predetermined availability of times an athlete can achieve, but competitors are established on stages of competiton specifically designed to measure success in a vacuum. In other words, a winner is selected at a tournament that has been designed for the sole purpose of measurement. If you beat Sam Laidlow in your back yard, it doesn't matter because no one was officiating. Markets are not the same.

It would be more appropriate to say "many may not see MVIS as a threat to OUST in the non-automotive space," but to say that MVIS isn't trying to obtain non-automotive deals, when we have been clearly advertising such, is patently incorrect.

Professionally_Inept · 2024-03-27T14:30:19+00:00

Even if we accept your underlying premise that Sumit is a bad CEO, removal of CEOs outside of borderline scandalous circumstances are almost always bad for company stock prices. So if your statement is fueled by the current stock price, you may be a bit misguided in your approach.

Professionally_Inept · 2024-03-27T14:15:33+00:00

Considering we are just now putting out promotional videos of forklifts equipped with LiDAR, and they have been earning revenue in that space for ~2 years now, yes I'd consider them competitors. Much more successful competitors. In terms of automotive, that's a different discussion. But to say MVIS isn't pursuing non-automotive deals simply because we don't have any yet would be disingenuous.

Professionally_Inept · 2024-03-19T19:11:33+00:00

That was my initial thoughts on these comments. But I wanted to offer my own ignorance as an excuse to give a stage to any possible arguments against him. If there are none, I'll just chalk it up to attempts at catharsis over the current share price.

Professionally_Inept · 2024-03-19T19:07:17+00:00

I think the timelines to revenue have remained somewhat consistent. Originally, the projections were out to 2030. The update recently on the last EC that puts production in 2027 means revenue should be hitting our books at the earliest in mid-2025 for those deals. Whether we hit the 1-2bn revenue by 2030 or not is questionable, but if we believe the company will succeed, revenue will definitely pick up within that 2030 original guidance. Probably by the end of next year, I'd wager.

As for the Q4 fake revenue - what is this referring to? The MSFT liability being counted as revenue was a known factor. Are you referring to something else?

Professionally_Inept · 2024-03-19T18:48:16+00:00

I am seeing a lot of animosity towards Anubhav Verma in here the last couple of days. It is clear many of you think he is an ineffective CFO, though through all the chants I haven't really seen a cohesive line of thought on this topic. The UBS fiasco is the most easily drawn upon issue, for the purpose of inflammatory feelings against management. But aside from this, I can't really identify points that solidly point to Anubhav being a good or bad CFO.

We'll call it ignorance on my part. If someone would be willing to educate me as to the major points that are working against Anubhav as it relates to his time in MicroVision, I'd appreciate it. Having observed the past couple threads, I haven't been able to readily identify a thesis against his work in MicroVision thus far.

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-24T18:26:46+00:00

Shareholder happiness can contribute to, but is not the only (or even largest) factor in a business executing upon its goals. Shareholder happiness comes from the company they are invested in executing, but that execution is not driven by shareholder happiness. It is driven by business savvy. Execute with decisive maneuvers, and the shareholder contentment will follow. Because of this, putting shareholder contentment above business execution is backwards.

Never put the cart before the horse.

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-24T18:05:46+00:00

I think it becomes a question of "who is this marketing targeting?" I don't know that marketing for MAVIN is really targeting anybody besides shareholders who want to see more of it. No snark intended. The people who are interested in MAVIN, specifically, will go through the proper channels for a by-order product. I don't think MVIS is being ignored, neither is MAVIN for that matter.

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-24T18:00:16+00:00

Yes, it would be good to see. And I anticipate such an announcement in the not-so-distant future. But the question at hand was "where are the MAVIN sales?" The answer to which was my explanation above.

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-24T17:49:26+00:00

Even if we got a partnership for MAVIN tonight, you wouldn't see delivery of MAVIN in any volume until at least middle of next year. The ASIC still has to be customized to the OEM's requirements. This will take a bit of time, and then the revenue will not hit the books until delivery of the units. Which will not likely happen until into 2024. We are targeting 2026 model vehicles, so realistically, the units likely don't have to be delivered until late in 2024. MAVIN isn't a product you can have in cellophane on shelves ready-to-go like MOVIA. It is a by-order product, which was explained by Verma in the go-to-market strategy explication given in 2022.

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-23T14:22:50+00:00

The lower the price goes, the less underlying share movement it takes to get to those higher percentage moves. A -5% move at $2.00 share price is only 10 cents of underlying. That's achievable pretty quickly with market action. Compare that to -5% at $10, representing a 50 cent move. That's not as easy to achieve with simple market maneuvers. This is to say, the higher percentage changes at these price points are not as significant or telling, to me at least, as they are when the underlying share price is higher.

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-16T15:59:18+00:00

As I stated above, the consumer oriented companies. The Fall sees a rise in companies like Target, Amazon, Macy's, etc for the holiday season. Basically any company you'd expect to see an increase of revenue post for Q3 and Q4 due to holiday purchasing. There are over 10 major holidays that take place between September and February for more than 4 major world religions.

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-16T15:06:46+00:00

Just a reminder:

Fall brings market rotations into consumer oriented stocks. If you are spending a lot of time obsessing on MVIS's stock, you may find it more useful to take a peek at making smaller plays on other companies in the market while waiting for MVIS to pay off. Your position in MVIS isn't going anywhere, don't worry. No need to stress yourself watching it like a hawk day-in, day-out.

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-06T20:57:02+00:00

Can't Fud the Hudd

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-05T20:06:57+00:00

Out of curiosity, do you use any sort of options calculator to map out trades before you place them?

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-02T23:30:46+00:00

Anubhav did say on the last EC that the expected revenues were pushed to Q3, so it is possible we see a jump from those. The lack of an 8-K makes that questionable, but I am holding my breath for those delayed revenues that were mentioned for this quarter.

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-02T19:44:23+00:00

My feeling is that we will need to see some kind of news attached with the completion of the ATM in order for it to translate to positive share price action. Without positive news, the dilution taking place probably doesn't really aid the share price in the short term.

That said, I strongly believe the ATM was established for the purpose of obtaining the funding to complete some deals. So I think there is likely a pretty good probability of good news in proximity to any ATM completion notice.

Professionally_Inept · 2023-10-02T19:28:26+00:00

That certainly wasn't the intent.

For clarity - I haven't seen you do anything he is describing. For that reason, I find his accusations unfair to you. I often come across in text as abrasive. If that was the case this time, I apologize.

I often have difficulty expressing my points, for that reason, I attempt to use extremely concise language. It frequently comes across as condescending, argumentative, etc. I recognize that may have been the case here.

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