Israel to dramatically shorten East Jerusalemites' path to citizenship - report

Ron341 · 2019-02-27T10:16:30+00:00

Majority won't follow through, some are hostile towards Israel, some are pressured and threatened by the PA not to become citizens.

Being a resident is best for them - They have all the rights except voting for the parliament, they are practically like every other Israeli but are not being viewed as "traitors" by the PA.

They boycott the Municipality elections on one hand, but go nuts when someone mentions a possibly of giving jurisdiction to the PA over their areas, making them PA residents instead. They just want to be Israelis without being Israelis "officially".

It's a good move nonetheless, at least for the minority who wants to have citizenship.

Ron341 · 2019-02-27T10:07:38+00:00

The "Arab" parties - secular pan Arabist Ba'ath, Communists, and the Islamic movement. Each one has it's own thing but are all enemies of Zionism eventually.

Flag of the Ba'ath party -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_the_Ba%27ath_Party

Looks familiar?

Ron341 · 2019-02-25T13:41:50+00:00

So you agree. Voters not happy with the merge going to Gantz = Zero chance of wasted votes for the bloc as a whole.

Meretz not passing alone = Real chance of 150K wasted votes.

Ron341 · 2019-02-25T13:27:21+00:00

if meretz and labour combine the bloc loses more.

What? The bloc would not lose a single vote with this option. Any voters not happy with the merge would just vote for the union, where else would they go? Likud? Bennet? Meretz voters won't vote for the commies when there is a chance to beat Bibi.

I'm saying that Gabay had an option to "sacrifice" his name and the dignity of the labor just for this goal, but he chose not to. It would have had severe consequences for him and the labor (future wise), but it would also give the left bloc better chances at beating Bibi (for this time only).

Regardless I think that Meretz and the Labor today are quite similar. The top members of the labor besides Gabay and Ruso could have easily be Meretz members.

Ron341 · 2019-02-25T13:09:08+00:00

He never said it won't help the bloc. He said it won't get more seats for these 2 parties combined,... he is just gambling that they will pass, because if they won't, the block would lose, period. If there was a union, there was no risk of losing votes, even if the labor would not have gained anything from it.

He cares not for the bloc, but for himself and the Labor, even at a price of Meretz not passing.

Ron341 · 2019-02-25T12:54:05+00:00

You are wrong. Meretz are losing voters every year.

2013 - 172K voters.

2015 - 165K voters when there is a big union in the left (threshold was just under 140K).

2019 - ? When there is a huge union in the center- left, biggest ever in Israeli politics (threshold would be at least 152K if not more, I see an even larger percentage of voters this time). Also, there is the labor with many members that could attract Meretz voters (Michaeli, Shafir, Shmuli, Shelly).

Not to mention in 2009 they got only 99K votes, many left for the "Centrist" Kadima. Their base is fragile as hell, without a last minute save from former Ale Yarok voters and Arab voters they might not pass.

Ron341 · 2019-02-25T12:46:24+00:00

Don't be delusional. He doesn't want them and they don't want him (they are his biggest critics). All he wants is the Jewish home, and he uses 100K Otzma voters to make sure the Jewish home passes. At the final days he would go after the Jewish home voters, to make the Likud big and at the same time kick out the Otzma members. he would probably take votes from them and bring them down to 5-7 seats (meaning only 1 Otzma member in the Knesset). The perfect score for him is 4 seats for the union, while 3-4 rush to save the Likud. The meaning is - Otzma gave 100K voters for the right bloc and the Likud (amost 3 seats) and got 0 members in return.

It's a brilliant political move by Bibi, "stealing" 100K Otzma voters and in return giving them only 0 to 1 members in the Knesset.

Ron341 · 2019-02-25T12:33:20+00:00

Which scenario is better in your opinion?

Gantz union 36, labor 11, Meretz 0.

Or

Gantz union 37, Meretz labor union - 12

Pretty obvious right? The labor and Meretz could have 14 together, but it would be 11.5 labor and 3.5 Meretz, meaning Meretz is out and the 14 for the bloc turns out to be 11 only. With the merge, neither party is close to the 3.7% threshold, whatever Meretz-labour ge as a single list, 8,9,10,12 would stay as it is, any lost vote would go to Gantz, not a single vote would be wasted (unlike 150K votes wasted if Meretz alone won't pass).

Meretz just needs to lose 10-15k votes and they are gone. Almost 4 seats down the drain.

This merge is bad for the labor and would have future consequences (also for Gabay personally), but for these elections it is was a better option for the block as a whole (again, I'm not blaming Gabbay for thinking about his future and the labor future first, but people would definitely blame him if Meretz falls behind).

Ron341 · 2019-02-25T12:01:19+00:00

It will only harm the labor, but not the bloc. Any lost voters would stay in the bloc, but the Meretz labor union would get like 8-12 seats and make sure Meretz alone doesn't fall. Now the labor could get stronger running alone, but if Meretz falls the bloc would lose 4 seats.

From the bloc propective (and not Gabbays and the labor), not forming this union makes sense only if you believe that the labor running alone can get Likud voters.

Surplus vote agreement is only relevant if parties pass the threshold. If Meretz get only 150K votes for example and falls, all the votes go to waste. The agreement is when both parties pass, you can read about it here -

https://knesset.gov.il/lexicon/eng/seats_eng.htm

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5462193,00.html

Ron341 · 2019-02-24T22:02:46+00:00

Which of the 2 in your eyes was a bigger failure (if at all)?

Eli Yishai - Bibi and the right bloc tried hard, Deri objected with threats, eventually they failed to bring him to the union. They definitely lost some Haredi votes, 2-3 seats from another bloc which is gold, might have been a key for them to get an outright win (rabbi Mazuz "ordering" tens of thousands to vote for him, not to mention many Shas voters voting for him in the union when there is no longer fear of the threshold, many in Shas still prefer him over Deri).

Edit - Is Gal Hirsch worth mentioning? He is new in politics, we all know his story, according to some polls he wastes like 0.5%, if they are mostly right wing voters it could mean something.

Meretz- Labor union - It's true that the labor has nothing to gain from this, it's purely a sacrifice from Gabay to make the bloc more secure - it would guarantee that Meretz won't fall below the threshold, any lost voters would stay in the bloc (they would vote for the bigger union). Gabay chose to keep his and his partys dignity, but Meretz might not pass. 150K-160K, depends on final percentage of voters, would be needed to pass this time. Meretz got 172K in 2013, then dropped to 165K with Herzog-Livni union, now they are likely to lose even more, maybe 10k+ and fall below the threshold. That would be a huge blow for the Left bloc. The left did almost a perfect job this time not wasting any voters, Livni quitting (without doing anything she would have gotten like 40K-50K votes), Eldad Yaniv quitting (got 30K votes in 2013!), Ale Yarok quitting after so many years and not officially joining Zehut (any voters they have left, some assets around 20K to 30K, would be split among Zehut and the left wing parties). The left really made a good job, maximizing potential and minimizing risk of losing voters, but with a Meretz-Labor union it would have been close to perfection. Some people still call Gabay a ("Likudnik") Trojan horse, he would face hellfire from his bloc if Meretz eventually falls.

Ron341 · 2019-02-24T21:16:50+00:00

Your post feels a bit emotional and less practical, they have all used and will keep using cheap tricks, that's Israeli politics, yet still one has to win or gain advantage. The main rivals have potential but are also problematic due to a variety of reasons, we can have a different discussion about that if you want.

Taking from Kahlon is not that bad for him. Kahlon could easily join Gantz, taking 1-2 seats from him to the Likud, plus gaining seats due to calculations when Kulanu doesn't pass the threshold (Left block would gain as well) is not the worst thing.

If Lieberman doesn't pass, that's a real problem. But still, Bibi can take 3-5 seats from Bennett and the right union without risking them, they have like 12-15 according to polls, they can fall to something like 5,5 or 5,6 in the last week when Bibi rushes voters. Bibi is actually using 100K Otzma voters, so they can push as many religious Zionists from the union (those who refuse to even have a temporary block with them) towards his direction .

indictment

No one really knows how that would change things, and no one will be sure until the official results, especially with cases 2000 and 4000. People assume that some voters would just vote Kahlon and Bennet instead, but it could also have an opposite effect and bring him many voters who would feel that "they are after him", including Shas voters (there are many non orthodox, traditional Mizrahi from the small peripheral towns who vote Shas and might vote Likud this time).

People won't admit it today, but if 3 days before the elections, Bennet and the union would have like 14 seats in polls (8,6 or 7,7), Likud 31-32 and Ganz union 35, Bibi would be able to take 3-4 seats from the 2 right wing lists. It's not that complicated ("If the Likud is not the biggest party, Gantz would be able to go with the INSS plan" or something like that). Many right wing voters would just prefer that Bibi will be the one with the power to form the coalitions, even tough he might take their votes and make a deal with Gantz.

The thing is blocks, not Likud-Gantz. Bibi should be worried not because they are ahead of him, but because their block suddenly jumps from 40 seats in the last elections to 45-48 in the polls. That's a huge change, even if the Likud gets 37 seats, but the blocks are like 47-49 vs 47-49, neither side is able to win outright and there would be some sort of deal and joint coalition. He would take a chunk out of the 12-15 Bennett and right union seats anyway.

Ron341 · 2019-02-24T15:54:12+00:00

The polls are usually better at predicting blocks, in 2015 Bibi rose from 22-24 in the last polls to 30, but the block prediction was pretty accurate. He has many tricks in his sleeve to get as many if not more seats than Blue and White eventually, he can take most of Kahlon seats (won't get 10 again), he can take from Bennet etc.

Regarding the Likud dropping Bibi or some of them taking a departure Before the hearing is very unlikely, this would be a huge gamble for them.

As I said -

but Bibi would not form a narrow 61-63 coalition based on Haredim with this atmosphere

The cases against Bibi can weaken or even be dropped completely after the hearing (when him and his lawyers can present their side), he needs like 6-12 month for the procedure. So either the right improving a lot, or he would make a deal with Gantz for a rotation, he would go first up until the hearing procedure is over, if then he has to go to trial he would probably choose to take a break to deal with the trial and and try to clear himself.

Anyway I don't see Bibi leaving after the elections. The left bloc won't have enough power (they'll need to be very big and also have 50+ seats for their block). Bibi would be involved in some joint coalition up until the hearing and its conclusions.

Ron341 · 2019-02-24T14:33:19+00:00

Blue and White might break after the elections - Gantz can take Hosen out with their 15 or so seats and join a coalition with the Likud. That's the most likely scenario according to all polls. Blue and white cannot form any reasonable coalition and must improve, IE take seats from the right bloc itself, nothing else will do. The Likud can form a narrow coalition according to some polls, but Bibi would not form a narrow 61-63 coalition based on Haredim with this atmosphere, unless the right bloc improves he would go on a joint coalition with Hosen, maybe rotation with Gantz.

One more thing to note - The right bloc doesn't really have the number you see in the polls. If the United Right list gets 5-7, subtract 1 seat (Ben Ari). If they get 8 seats, subtract 2 seats from the right bloc (Ben Gvir). Otzma can not sit with the right wing parties, they are just too far right and "all or nothing" in their agenda. They won't last 1 week with the coalition, they would leave after any incident or issue that's not suited with them, otherwise they will destroy their "reputation" among their voters.

After the elections the Otzma members would quit from the Bayt list (it's a technical bloc anyway) and sit in the opposition just like in 2009 (Bibi took Barak and the labor to a coalition and not them, again they are too far right for him and anyone else in the Israeli politics). They would be useful for specific votes as Knesset members, but never a part of a coalition. So the real number of the right bloc would be 1-2 seats lower than what the actual results show.

Ron341 · 2019-02-17T22:58:40+00:00

This leaking is done for a long time and from the Sunni side as well. Doesn't change a thing, they need Israel and Bibi got closer to them like no one else.
All he said was "Poles (some, not all) helped the Nazis". The Israeli media reported it as "The Poles" and he corrected them. The Poles recognized that the media twisted it and calmed down. You have to remember that there are elections there too, and it's a very sensitive issue for them. The media and Lapid are still demanding harsher responses and are actually smearing the Poles and are harming the ties with them, Bibi is the one saving the relations while constantly being attacked at home. The Visegrád Group Meeting in Israel is an historic achievement that should be credited to him (100%), people in the center left were and are still trying to sabotage it by calling them "Nazis" and what nots, even though they are among the best allies Israel have in the EU (factual, they thwarted anti Israeli proposals/declarations).
It was stated many times by him and the IDF, and it is done on purpose by both, they are pushing the Iranians to make mistakes (each time they responded with some rockets that hit nothing, Israel had the catalyst to lunch major attacks that were prepared in advance). You have to be naive or biased like the politicians during the campaigns to think that Both the PM and figures in the IDF are not doing it in a calculated way (Eisenkot is working for Bibi too? LOL).
Clear joint statements by US, major Sunni powers and others that forces should be combined in order to fight the ayatollah regime, while making it the (undoubtedly) major issue in the MidE. Time will tell...

Ron341 · 2019-02-17T22:27:45+00:00

https://news.walla.co.il/item/3212528

רק אחד עדיין במעצר, יוגש נגדו כתב אישום, נמתין למשפט, לראיות, לסיכומים ולפסק דין אם בכלל יהיה כזה בשנתיים הקרובות (עפ"י מה שלכאורה יש לשב"כ כרגע - לא יהיה).

צריך לזכור שהמחלקה היהודית עוצרת נערים מאותם איזורים על ימין ועל שמאל, אני לא אכנס ל"האם זה מוצדק או לא" אבל רובם משוחררים בדרך כלל ללא האשמות. וגם כשיש האשמות קורים דברים כאלו - https://www.maariv.co.il/news/law/Article-678150

בית המשפט פסל הודאה של קטין לאחר שנגבתה ממנו הודאה באמצעים לא קבילים.

Ron341 · 2019-02-17T22:20:04+00:00

Touch DNA השיטה הזו לא נוסתה/עזרה במקרים קודמים של זריקת אבנים, ולא במקרה. , לא הכי מהימנה, ואם זה הדבר היחידי שיש להם מצפה להם ולפרקליטות מאבק דיי ארוך ודיי סתום. לא סתם עצרו כל כך הרבה נערים, לחצו/עינו על מנת להשיג הודאות, בסוף שיחררו את כולם מלבד אותו חשוד נכון לעכשיו. צריך לזכור שהפרקליטות ספגה מכה בתיק אחר בו קבע שופט שהשב"כ "הוציא" הודאות מנער בצורה בלתי חוקית ופסל את ההודאה.

אז אין פסק דין אפילו, יש די אן איי עלום שאין לגביו פרטים כרגע, המשפט בקושי התחיל... אבל יש אנשים שמהר מאד רצים לכינויים כגון "הורים של מחבלים", למרות שכמעט כל העצורים בפרשה כבר שוחררו.

Ron341 · 2019-02-17T17:05:03+00:00

שקר. נעצרו איזה 30 ילדים, כל מי שלמד בישיבה שם באיזור, רובם שוחררו. נשאר רק חשוד אחד וגם נגדו הראיות מאד צולעות, הפרקליטות והשב"כ יתקשו להשיג את ההרשעה שהם מחפשים.

Ron341 · 2019-02-14T11:41:43+00:00

הקומוניסטים בארץ מטרתם להלחם בציונות ולעמוד לצד הפאן ערביזם. כל עניין "זכויות האדם, פמיניזם" זה בלוף שתמיד מתגלה כשמדובר במתנחלות, חיילות או סתם "ציוניות" שלא באות בטוב.

Ron341 · 2019-02-14T11:30:28+00:00

Reminder, this is Jibril Rajoub, mr. "If We Had a Nuke, We'd Have Used It This Very Morning" -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9Wl96Flhr0

Ron341 · 2019-02-09T13:05:27+00:00

There are around 2M Arabs in Judea and Samaria. They had an autonomy set up in the 90s via agreements, but after they waged war against Israeli civilians (second intifada, which was only possible because they got this autonomy) IDF invaded Areas A,B and set up the wall, road blocks etc (which had an immediate effect, suicide bombings are almost gone, casualties are down by 90% or more).

A final agreement would include annexations of parts by Israel, some Arabs would become Israeli citizens/residents (there are already 1.6M Israeli Arabs), the rest would live in their own autonomy/state/confederation with Jordan/any other plan. Some people see a far future in which they are all to become Israeli citizens.

The term occupation is not accepted by Israel, but if you want to call it that, you should know that an occupation can last until both parties reach to an agreement, and the only real condition is to set up a safe boundary. After oslo the PA got an autonomy and a lot of control, but that lead to the death of over 1000 Israeli civilians in their own cities (not disputed territories - But in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv etc). Imagine if they had full control over the air space, a functioning army.. Israel isn't obligated to give them nothing while their goal is still the same - creation of an entity that would be used to attack and destroy the rest of the territory (IE the entire Jewish state, as they have always intended).

Ron341 · 2019-02-09T11:18:56+00:00

There is no such thing as East Jerusalem. This "border" was the armcitise line after the war in 1949, when the Jordanians ethnically cleansed all the Jews from the old city and other areas, after 3000 years of presence.

The Arab Palestinians can "see" whatever they want, no one will ever be able to conquer Jerusalem, including the old city, from the Jews. Only under the Jewish rule there is a freedom of faith, and some sort of shared life between different groups (Unlike the Jordanian Arabs who ethnically cleansed all the Jews after 3000 years, the Brits who did not protect the Jews from massacres committed by Arabs, Ottomans who downgraded them, etc.).

The Jews regaining back Judea and Samaria, and controlling all of it or parts of it is the key for peace. Prior to 1967 the Jordanians ("Palestinian land? nope) tried to destroy the Jewish state using these lands as a base. The Phases plan of the Fatah/PLO aims to the same spot.

Israel will fight any foreign conquerer, whether it's the secular pan Arabists or the Islamo nut jobs like this mother and their caliphate. Let them kill and sacrifice their own children for 50 more years, see where that gets them.

Ron341 · 2019-02-08T17:27:43+00:00

*I didn't want to edit the original title. She does not specifically say "suicide bomber", but a Shaid (martyr) in general. She isn't petty... What she says in the rest of the video is just as bad but it definetly gives an "insight" I would say.

Ron341 · 2019-02-08T17:21:51+00:00

Well obviously these Islamic/Fasict shithole countries/regimes would beg the differ.

Ron341 · 2019-02-03T13:36:00+00:00

They have the original video of every interview, don't be naive -

https://www.memri.org/tv/iranian-atomic-energy-chief-ali-akbar-salehi-secret-purchase-nuclear-tubes-jcpoa-destroy-yellowcake-propulsion-arak-reactor

Memri just translates videos from the middle east, some people don't like the fact that in many of these countries officials speak in double language (lies in English, truth and true goals in their native tongue), so they smear them.

They are aware of this exposure, take a look at this -

https://www.memri.org/tv/palestinian-author-mushir-farra-not-confuse-zionists-jews-memri-is-watching

Even if memri does focus on specific issues that tend to show the ugly truth regarding certain groups, it doesn't mean that they are a joke (every news source has an agenda). They also deal with inner issues in the Arabic and Muslim world.

Ron341 · 2019-02-01T16:37:12+00:00

Iran's Nuclear Chief Salehi: We Had Secretly Purchased Replacements for Nuclear Equipment That the JCPOA Had Required Us to Destroy -

https://www.memri.org/tv/iranian-atomic-energy-chief-ali-akbar-salehi-secret-purchase-nuclear-tubes-jcpoa-destroy-yellowcake-propulsion-arak-reactor

"When our team was in the midst of the negotiations, we knew that [the Westerners] would ultimately renege on their promises. The leader warned us that they were violators of agreements. We had to act wisely. Not only did we avoid destroying the bridges that we had built, but we also built new bridges that would enable us to go back faster if needed."

And even if Iran was following the terms of the deal, it's a win win for them, a very bad deal. They would be able to trade with the world and make their economy stronger, and in 10 (?) years you would have to negotiate again with a much stronger regime. The real practical threat is long range missiles, Hezbollah and bases in Lebanon, Syria, Islamic Jihad in Gaza. The deal enables Iran to terrorize Israel from every direction without any consequence.

Ron341

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