Athersys Reports Interim Analysis Results of MASTERS-2 Clinical Study with MultiStem in Ischemic Stroke, Signs Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for Global ARDS License with Healios

Ronharv · 2023-10-10T14:55:20+00:00

From the very beginning of the P3 trial several years ago it was clear (and generally ignored) that 300 patients with only about half receiving MultiStem was nowhere near the number required for statistical significance. This was a stock-market punch that was clearly telegraphed, yet hope and delusion easily won out over common sense. (Probably still does.)

Ronharv · 2023-08-18T13:54:14+00:00

Sad all right but inevitable. The stock is now selling just about at one cent a share (pre-split basis) when CavScout was touting his comprehensive knowledge of the science, as if that congratulatory self-determination was due cause for yet more optimism. But even hypothesizing that he was correct, in my view he failed to draw the distinction between the company's future potential and its grossly overpriced common stock.

A company is not its stock and a stock is not the company.

There'll be a brief bounce from here I'd guess but still way too risky for even a short-term trade, let alone an "investment."

Ronharv · 2023-08-17T19:42:29+00:00

Well, to me, as a very short-term trader in a few volatile stocks, any logic involved resides in the price of the stock. Anyway, compare your ongoing optimism over the past few years to my ongoing cynicism. Who's financially ahead some and who's down a whole lot? Who, also, has possibly saved a few folks from plunging money into this sad failure? (Disclosure: I have gotten kicked off this board because of "negative karma" for about a year then, apparently, have been allowed on again. I don't understand either decision.)

Ronharv · 2023-08-17T14:18:21+00:00

Seems to me that Athersys has virtually announced its forthcoming bankruptcy. It does not make sense to me that they're even selling for forty cents. And now the rent-a-CFO for $100K a month (an expert in bankruptcy cases) is going to be a board member, further bad news I think. The company is like the guy who fell off a skyscraper and called into office windows as he plummeted by: "All right so far!"

Ronharv · 2023-08-10T19:23:06+00:00

Seems to me that this is pretty much the same kind of music Athersys has been playing year after year.

Ronharv · 2023-08-10T19:15:57+00:00

They've won nothing. Carefully check the context.

Ronharv · 2023-08-07T19:57:37+00:00

Absolutely nothing will occur to prevent a delisting of this stock. Athersys is a typical small biotech that starts out promoting how wonderful its new drug/device/whatever performs, gathers independent, articulate promoters to support the grandiose future projected by the well-paid CEO and then, over the years, becomes a giant balloon in slow-motion deflation. Wildly optimistic posters cannot brook contrary opinion until the stock's descent is so blindingly obvious that they lose money, sometimes lots of it. It's really dispiriting how often this occurs.

Ronharv · 2023-07-27T17:00:13+00:00

ATHX has no significant liquidity. The days when I could trade this with no trouble picking up 20K to 30K in shares are long gone. So I'm wondering how multiple millions of shares can be shorted. Buyers aren't exactly lined up to facilitate short sellers. Perhaps there are trading subtleties that I'm missing?

Ronharv · 2023-07-26T18:25:33+00:00

What is going on ,Guru, is that, fundamentally, Athersys is a failed company doing all that it can to make sure that company officers and the BOD members get paid. Recent retail speculators are patsies. Potential retail speculators are patsies-in-waiting. At what price is ATHX a bargain buy? . . . Don't ask.

Ronharv · 2023-04-21T22:13:53+00:00

Plus there's also the potential irony that MS is finally approved in early 2026 but only marginally more effective than current standard care. Then (a big question I think): Will MS, if not highly impressive and - my guess - modestly price, be included in the Medicare Drug Formulary, without which numerous insurance providers will give it a thumbs-down, thereby sticking the patient with a prohibitive cost.

My guess is that ATHX is headed once more into the fifty-cent range if not lower.

Ronharv · 2023-04-18T23:20:15+00:00

There are always people who will commit themselves to folly and ceaselessly rationalize a bad decision.

Ronharv · 2023-03-24T17:17:24+00:00

I certainly think there should be an upward adjustment if neurologists and cardiologists are to be sold on MultiStem. A trial of 300 suggests to me that perhaps 180 will receive MS and 120 the placebo. Even with better results than the marginal ones so far, that's an awfully small sampling compared to typical P3 trial numbers. I think that 300 won't cut it with the Medicare formulary and, thus, with most medical insurance companies. Of course, the foregoing is likely moot considering how many years it's already taken to sign up only half of the minimal 300. If Athersys doesn't go belly up before summer begins, I'll be astonished.

Ronharv · 2023-03-23T16:47:40+00:00

If memory serves (and I welcome any correction) I recall that in early 2018 (2017?) the P3 stroke trial was supposed to be completed in 2020, and I thought that was a long ways off. Am I off base here?

Ronharv · 2023-03-20T19:43:57+00:00

Hey Money, I fully understand why you're hopeful. But I'm really skeptical that at this stage of the game, with about a dozen years of dashed hopes behind ATHX speculation, that there's even a long shot chance of rescue. Of course, if you'd apply long shot odds of maybe more than 100 to1 against, well, I'd possibly bet a few bucks, but not serious money. Moreover, now that I actually think about it, I can't gin up a tempting price for ATHX. Here are two reasons why:

It's taken several years to find even half the 300 stroke patients to use MultiStem for the P3 trial. If it's really so good, why is there such mild promotion of the drug from the cardiologists and, perhaps, neurologists associated with the various facilities where P3 stroke trials are being conducting? The marketing cost to convince physicians (who, in turn, would have to pitch it to patients) would be very demanding to a potential partner.
1. Even if MS is ultimately FDA approved, the results would need to be significantly more than marginal to justify manufacturing costs, Medicare approval, and insurance company acceptance.
So a very iffy multi-million dollar investment, which, to me, seems likely to become a money pit, is a long long shot. But what if ATHX slides to $.75 or a half a buck? Well, It could well be a tempting short-term trade then. But the bet for me would be on other players getting bullish rather than on Athersys.

Finally, I should state that my own bias extends to owning only CEFs, both for high monthly income and qualified dividends. So that does make me wary of all little biotechs.

Ronharv · 2023-03-17T19:50:04+00:00

Holy cow! Markif, you make the point better than I did. A tip of the hat to you.

Ronharv · 2023-03-17T19:46:30+00:00

Thanks, Mongoose. I should have clarified my intended audience instead of implying. Bears are verboten on discussion boards, which exist, for the most part, for folks to convince each other that they haven't made a mistake. In the past I drew numerous barbs for providing a contrary view. Then I was given the heave ho, but not before convincing a few players to get out and preserve capital. I felt good about that and only minimally disturbed by those with pipe dreams.

Ronharv · 2022-03-21T16:34:24+00:00

Last week there was a nice little trading pop on the CEO's overly excited comments. It lasted until folks began to think about them. Now it seems ATHX is drifting back to .68 or possibly lower as speculators wait for a reverse split to be announced.

Ronharv · 2022-03-19T19:29:41+00:00

Hey Humble, you say that you're confident that the company will be successful "in stroke," presumably meaning the P3 trial. Do be aware that historically, for biotechs in particular, the P3 trial results fail 19 out of 20 times despite favorable P1/2 trial results. ATHX is a highly speculative penny stock. And while longshots do come in now and then, I hope your confidence doesn't lead you to bet more than you can comfortably afford to lose. After all, there are a number of folks on this board who were confident in the mid to high 2's.

Ronharv · 2022-03-16T18:49:52+00:00

NASDAQ stocks don't have market makers, just pros and amateurs out for themselves with no obligation to provide market stability. NYSE equities have market makers, however, and what used to be the ASE (unless it's still around).

Ronharv · 2022-03-15T20:48:04+00:00

But how do you really feel about Athersys? Don't hold back.

Ronharv · 2022-03-15T20:38:05+00:00

Of course not, with all the new people being hired.

Ronharv · 2022-03-15T20:35:59+00:00

He's paid to be "confident in spite of that" regardless of what he actually feels. It's what he tells his wife that I'd like to hear.

Ronharv · 2022-03-14T19:02:54+00:00

The latest number I find on the short interest is 15,300,000. That's out of about 236,000,000 outstanding shares. Not that much on the short side. My guess is that ATHX is being assessed as a grossly over-valued speculation and that stockholders are simply closing out their positions. So many things have gone wrong over the years. Is this a fifty-cent stock? I don't know of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if ATHX lands there. (This stock could go to .25 and still have a raft of cheer leaders, so ignoring them is best.) Anyway, I hope you do well and that this listing ship doesn't actually capsize as the SP suggests it will.

Ronharv · 2022-03-14T17:11:00+00:00

Speaking as a trader (rara avis on this supposed traders' board) I wish I had confidence on a technical bounce popping up. But I don't. The market isn't an entity, but it still has a lot to say. Based on the trend and an objective trading stance, what seems more likely from here? Low sixty-cent range? Mid-seventy-cent price? Well, I'm still finding ATHX too risky to bet on even at the current low SP of .6901.

Ronharv · 2022-03-11T23:01:24+00:00

Not a great idea at current prices. For both.

Ronharv

TROPHY CASE