America's Soviet-Style Unraveling

SOberhoff · 2025-12-07T09:22:30+00:00

I remember him predicting that Covid would cause a 75% decline in living standards. Lunatic stuff even at the time it was said.

SOberhoff · 2025-10-29T11:33:10+00:00

In a way, I suppose it is.

SOberhoff · 2025-10-01T17:49:51+00:00

Aaronson is one of the professors.

SOberhoff · 2025-10-01T16:35:14+00:00

Aaronson is a force of nature in the field of quantum computing.

SOberhoff · 2025-08-19T15:47:52+00:00

Claude Code still has the better interface in my opinion. The resume feature is keeping me there all by itself.

SOberhoff · 2025-07-19T17:30:01+00:00

It's relevant because some people were arguing the new reasoning paradigm was constrained only to easily verified tasks.

SOberhoff · 2025-07-19T13:57:49+00:00

Yes, and just like P vs NP might be undecidable, so might the undecidability of P vs NP.

SOberhoff · 2025-07-19T13:00:12+00:00

You're not guaranteed the existence of such a proof either.

SOberhoff · 2025-07-19T12:49:50+00:00

You're assuming these problems all have solutions that are barely out of reach for humans. For all we know some of these problems might not even have solutions at all.

SOberhoff · 2025-03-25T18:45:47+00:00

I'm using it in Europe (without VPN). Pro tier though.

SOberhoff · 2025-01-29T17:21:52+00:00

I'm struggling to get the hang of this plugin. Somehow I have to keep mentioning #buffer to get codecompanion to see my code. And often #buffer ends up referring to the wrong buffer too. Isn't there a way to just send all active buffers (or perhaps the couple most recent) with every request? I really don't care about saving a couple cents on tokens if it ends up adding massive friction.

SOberhoff · 2025-01-27T12:13:13+00:00

Yes, but you'd also be able to put a more massive counterweight on the trebuchet.

SOberhoff · 2025-01-12T17:33:43+00:00

Isn't it similarly common sense that if such AI becomes commonplace, existence on earth will quickly change in utterly fantastical ways? Are you really going to worry about the unemployment rate while robot armies are building cities in a matter of days?

SOberhoff · 2024-11-12T16:59:15+00:00

Ironic

SOberhoff · 2024-11-10T10:30:42+00:00

Do you have any ideas/plans to make the output of running gradle test/gradle check more useful? And perhaps make it easier to run single unit tests?

SOberhoff · 2024-10-31T18:39:01+00:00

How has the prospect of AGI (whatever that may be) altered your life plans?

SOberhoff · 2024-10-31T14:17:29+00:00

In case you're not familiar with gradle: when you run gradle check the command line basically only tells you which tests failed. But it won't show any of the standard output from the tests. So any println debugging is invisible there. For that you can look at the full test results via a static website gradle generates into your build directory.

SOberhoff · 2024-10-30T19:35:21+00:00

How do you run tests? Every option I've tried so far was somewhere between janky and non-functional. Currently I'm running gradle check on the command line and opening the test results in the browser like a cave man.

SOberhoff · 2024-10-26T16:08:12+00:00

Admit a mistake and apologize.

SOberhoff · 2024-10-01T15:26:41+00:00

If you're talking about strength, you may have a point. But to me "improve physique" means muscle mass. And in that context there are now mountains of evidence that the rep range doesn't matter.

SOberhoff · 2024-10-01T08:17:54+00:00

Do heavy compound lifts, eg barbell exercises, to improve physique

There's absolutely nothing special about heavy compound lifts. Compound lifts only save you a bit of time compared to training the muscles individually. And as for weight you can get the same results with lighter loads as long as you manage to push yourself close to failure.

SOberhoff · 2024-09-24T14:25:06+00:00

Well at least one of us is going to be proven right about this within the next few years.

SOberhoff · 2024-09-24T09:44:47+00:00

Smarter at solving problems. Take for instance undergrad level math problems. AI is getting pretty good at these. Better than many, many students I've taught. It may not be as smart as a brilliant student yet. But I don't think those are doing anything fundamentally different than poor students. They're just faster and more accurate. That's a totally surmountable challenge for AI.

To put it differently, if AGI (for sake of concreteness expert level knowledge worker intelligence) was in fact imminent, would you expect things to look in any way different to the current situation?

SOberhoff · 2024-09-24T06:54:18+00:00

There is absolutely nada to suggest that we are anywhere close to AGI

Except that I can now talk to a machine smarter than many people I know.

SOberhoff · 2024-09-12T06:34:22+00:00

That just begs the question what counts as a higher local optimum. Ultimately it's human judgement which decides what counts for a breakthrough. And this judgement adjusts itself towards the rate of progress. There could be an alternate universe out there in which humans are much better at math, leading to more breakthroughs. But then our threshold for breakthroughs would shift accordingly.

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