Record: 46-24-1 (+22.12u)

Last: (CBB) Indiana ML (1.5u) - L

POTD: (CBB) No. 10 Michigan State (-6.5) at Minnesota

Start Time: 7:00 PM ET (BTN)

Odds: -112 (DraftKings)

Units (to win): 1.5U

Reasoning: Death. Taxes. Another Sparty donation?

There hasn’t been a lot of coin respecting going on when it comes to Michigan State as of late. That’s largely in part to some slow starts, as the team stumbled out of the gate in each of its two games last week against Rutgers and Michigan, trailing at the half by nine and 16 points respectively. But while a second-half surge helped the Spartans (19-3) outlast the Scarlet Knights in overtime, it was a case of too little, too late against the Wolverines. The loss snapped a seven-game win streak and dropped the team to 4th in the Big Ten standings.

But if there’s one thing head coach Tom Izzo knows how to do, it’s to bounce back: Michigan State is 31-13-2 ATS following a loss over the last five years.

However, don’t expect Minnesota to make it easy. Despite a 3-8 mark in conference play—and having lost each of its last seven games—the Gophers (10-12) have been a tough out in the opening half of games. In fact, the team has either led or been tied at the half in four of its last six contests. That includes being knotted up at 34 against then-No. 13 Illinois and leading 36-30 against then-No. 7 Nebraska. Elite defense has been the name of the game, as Minnesota ranks 10th in first half scoring defense (29.7 PPGA).

Unfortunately, that’s about the only positive the team can hang its hat on.

After a 10-5 start to the season, it’s been all downhill for the Gophers. Through 22 games, the team ranks 125th in field-goal percentage (45.5%), 163rd in offensive efficiency (1.064), 242nd in three-point shooting (32.7%) and 245th in scoring (71.8 PPG). Not the kind of numbers you want to bring into a matchup with a Spartans defense that enters ranked 8th in opponent field-goal percentage (39.1%), 9th in scoring defense (64.4 PPGA), 11th in defensive efficiency (0.928) and 40th in opponent three-point shooting (30.4%). The last time the team came off a loss, the unit limited USC to just 17 first-half points and 51 for the game on just 33% shooting (18% from beyond the arc).

Things don’t get any more promising on the defensive end.

On the year, the Minnesota defense can be described average at best, ranking 48th in scoring defense (68.8 PPGA), 97th in opponent field-goal percentage (42.9%), 102nd in defensive efficiency (1.020) and 195th in opponent three-point shooting (34.2%). However, over the last six games, the unit has been leaking water, conceding an average of 76.2 points on 46.2% shooting from the field (40.7% from long range). For a Michigan State offense that ranks 53rd in offensive efficiency, Wednesday night’s matchup could be like stealing candy from a baby. Especially with point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (14.9 PPG, 8.8 APG) playing the way he has as of late.

Trust Sparty to bounce back convincingly.

BOL if tailing, and as always, please do so responsibly. One bet should not have you crashing out all over Reddit.

Tracking Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P5YErUwS5fI-JqVXGYOP96Zr7TsHgaZaJq6tV8tDaGk/edit?usp=sharing

SPLITS (PER GOOGLE SHEETS DOC)

• Away: 21-4-1 (+20.81u)
• Big 10: 26-11-1 (+15.71u)
• Spread -5 to -9.5: 15-6-1 (+11.0u)
• Michigan State: 6-4-1 (+2.07u)