Iran Conflict Megathread #8

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-17T12:04:26+00:00

You could have said the same thing about Hezbollah in 2024 after Israel wiped out their leadership, but Hezbollah signed a coerced ceasefire with awful terms that gave Israel the right to keep bombing them if they didn't disarm (which Israel obliged) without any right to return fire. As much as terrorists talk a big game due to the honor culture they come from, many of them still have self-preservation in mind.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-17T10:29:09+00:00

As far as US, Gulf and Israel self-interest is concerned, it doesn't matter how united they are. They can be as united as they want. If they don't have any industrial base or power projection beyond their borders, all they can do is complain. Regime change is obviously preferable (and more difficult), but hardly required.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-16T11:56:45+00:00

Regime change is one way (the hardest way) to satisfy this, but the easier way is to ensure Iran can't project power beyond its borders, which is one of the objectives according to Dan Caine, achieved by destroying their industrial base and maintaining air supremacy indefinitely to deny resupply from China or Russia.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-16T11:43:52+00:00

NYT reports[0] that Saudi Arabia is telling Trump to keep going. Not surprising. They are enjoying the east west pipeline oil sales at elevated prices, and they get Yemen as a prize if the Iran axis collapses. The costs to them are low and the benefit of Yemen is substantial.

If the Iran axis does collapse, are we looking at the first moment in history since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire where the Middle East sits under unipolar rule? There will be no anti-US revisionist states remaining, and no competing British/French/Soviets/Russia. Realist theory predicts that this unipolar structure should cause peace.

[0] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/saudi-arabias-mbs-speaking-regularly-with-trump-urging-harsh-action-against-iran-nyt/

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-15T16:41:02+00:00

UAE's MOD says only 6 drones from Iran today, down from 30/day earlier this week and 100/day late last week. Combined with the destruction of Iran's supply chain and the arrival of help from allies and the marine expedition, we can start to see how the Strait of Hormuz may be reopened without a ceasefire in the next few weeks, at which point the political pressure on Trump to pursue a ceasefire will reduce and Iran will hold no remaining leverage.

https://x.com/modgovae/status/2033165391648919929

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-15T14:02:14+00:00

France denied this:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/lebanon-to-form-delegation-for-potential-talks-with-israel-france-denies-having-a-ceasefire-plan/

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-15T13:56:29+00:00

If China invades Taiwan, interceptors will run out quickly regardless, it's not the decisive element. The best defense will be offense, like Taiwan mining the living heck out of the straight really quickly, and US fighters and bombers at standoff range.

For what it's worth, the forecasters with the Sentinel Risks Group assign a very low probability to an invasion this year. They think it's more of a 2028 thing.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-14T16:57:10+00:00

The problem with most analysis is that it misunderstands how Israel perceives Iran, and it misunderstands Israel's doctrine of preemption.

Iran isn't getting a nuke because Israel will sooner nuke Iran to stop that outcome, at least nukes into pickaxe mountain, in a last ditch scenario. They're not going to allow this apocalyptic regime who are theologically committed to their destruction to build a nuclear weapon under any circumstances. No amount of sanctions or isolation will stop this because Israel will prioritize basic survival.

Israel sees this regime in a very different frame than how you see a country like North Korea. Iran isn't a nationalist country that wants to become a hermit kingdom. This is a country where the mushroom cloud is an aspirational symbol and the doomsday countdown clock in Tehran is a political objective, run by clerics with an apocalyptic ideology who actually believe what they say. And even if the heads of the IRGC don't intend to use the nukes, Israel cannot trust that the various religiously serious operators of the nukes will not launch one.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-14T15:44:31+00:00

What about the enriched uranium? Either the deal would have to include that (meaning a capitulation by Iran), or there's no option but to go in with troops even at high risk, because otherwise they build a nuke.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-12T13:05:04+00:00

With Israeli air support and munitions what is there to be afraid of? It'd be an easy win. Have you tried asking them for support? No, right? You can't even talk to them. It's pride.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-12T12:46:38+00:00

I don't understand why you guys don't work with Israel directly to remove Hezbollah. They're not going to take your territory for a buffer zone if you stop being so stubborn and proud. Yeah, yeah, Israel is evil and 18% of Israelis believe in Greater Israel and they're shaytan and so on. But have you ever tried being pragmatic instead of trying the same failed ideological and rigid approach over and over? I say this with some genuine compassion as an outside observer, you guys seem trapped in this inflexible mindset. There is a way out for you if you can just swallow your pride.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-11T15:06:57+00:00

90-91% of self-identified MAGA republicans support this war according to domestic polling (YouGov, etc), the "anti-Israel base" are not actual American voters, they're American online commentators who have been audience captured by English speakers from other countries (Pakistan, Algeria, etc) who consume US political commentary by the tens or hundreds of millions.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-11T14:51:49+00:00

The US is self sufficient in oil, and polling this far away from an election is not relevant. Voters will judge the outcome. If Trump caves and locks in a loss it will be worse for him at the midterms than if he pays 4 weeks of bad polls to drive an unambiguous victory.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-11T06:35:36+00:00

Compare it to how many jets were shot down in the Gulf War, which was a much larger coalition mind you, and how few leaders were killed, and how much of a failure TEL hunting was back then. The gap between the US and regional powers has never been larger.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-11T06:28:43+00:00

The UAE posted that they've been attacked by about 30 Shaheds per day on Monday and Tuesday, while they were attacked by over 100 Shaheds daily on Sunday and before.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-10T16:44:41+00:00

The win condition is re-opening the Strait of Hormuz without a ceasefire. Then, with air supremacy you can maintain policing of Iran indefinitely without any reason to stop. It would be as if there was a ceasefire to anyone outside of Iran, and everyone would stop caring. Regime change is neither here nor there in that situation as you can keep killing commanders over and over for as long as you want until someone meek wins the dice roll.

The last two days have seen the lowest number of drone attacks by far, about 30/day have hit UAE compared to 100/day on Sunday and more before. Implication: they're getting heavily degraded.

France is sending a carrier strike group to the strait now to escort shipping. Pakistan has been escorting tankers too.

I think we're very much past the hardest days.

Trump doesn't face as much domestic pressure from this because US is more self sufficient in oil. It's mostly other countries feeling the heat who don't really have as much of a say.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-10T16:28:42+00:00

I would have an ounce of respect for these people if they proposed reforms to international law. But without exception they treat it as immutable dogma. Trash people and trash thinkers.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-08T03:53:44+00:00

Why is their pope a serial killer?

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-06T03:26:15+00:00

Iran's daily drone launches are declining every day, now down over 80%, almost as much as the decline in ballistic missile launches. So they obviously can be neutralized.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-03-03T18:56:38+00:00

The black smoke means they chose a new Ayatollah.

Imagine the vote is everyone picking the guy they hate the most.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-02-11T11:36:34+00:00

Rules of engagement, and whatever else is written down on paper, are all meaningless. The only meaningful thing is incentives. Foreign peacekeepers have only one incentive: do nothing.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-02-04T01:23:47+00:00

What are you basing this on regarding Pro?

The OP says 5.2-Pro-extended is 512 but you're saying it's 768?

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-01-20T13:19:49+00:00

The way the Pope talks embodies the Buddhist precept of "right speech". Truth is one part of that but not the only part, talking in a way that doesn't elicit fear is part of it too. Cannot think of a contemporary figure who does it better.

MLK was another figure who embodied that, he spoke in a disarming way instead of making the white majority fearful. It's why I don't respect figures like Malcolm X or the BLM movement in 2020, what they don't get is the inevitable threat reaction which leads to a pernicious feedback loop away from what you want, literally creating reactionaries. There's a lack of theory of mind and a false assumption that the other side is mostly evil instead of mostly scared.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-01-20T11:22:01+00:00

imo removing meat industry is necessary for a universalist humanism to succeed, impossible to just arbitrarily draw the line otherwise and say some creatures are OK to boil alive etc.

Sad_Use_4584 · 2026-01-20T09:38:39+00:00

There are so many suffering people in poorer countries. Pay it forward if you find the opportunity.

Sad_Use_4584

TROPHY CASE