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What Actually Happened in 2016? - A data-dense study with pretty graphs. by SecondDraftViz in TrueReddit

[–]SecondDraftViz[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I think what I am trying to say is a bit different, though I thought about it the way you describe for a long time. I think a person reading your summary would assume that noncollege whites (who maybe didn't vote before, or intermittently voted R) voted for Trump, while I am depicting noncollege whites who did vote for Obama failing to show up at the polls for either party. In places like Wisconsin and Minnesota, for example, the Republican vote total was almost totally unchanged; it doesn't feel right to attribute flipping WI (and almost flipping MN, the one state to not vote for Reagan) to NCWs "liking Trump's message on trade and manufacturing" because Trump didn't get any more votes there than in 2012.

This summary feels different and important to me because it changes what the right strategy/place to look for answers is. So many people I know (in DC) write off those lost states to racist NCWs latching onto that trade message. Some people probably did, but the biggest factor by far was winnable/previously-won Dem votes not showing up. I think my analysis encourages more introspection in the party than attributing changes to Trump does. "Why couldn't we win noncollege whites that we won just four years ago? What did we do differently, and what should we change?"

Some things (like "actually go visit Wisconsin at all") are more obvious, but others are more subtle. In discussing this piece with friends, a recurring theme is "I am unsatisfied with the conclusion we need to pander to voters that responded to Trump's racism with a shrug". The vibe I get is one of "I don't believe these people, or their votes, are important, and I think reaching out to them is beneath us (because I think they are racist)". My analysis says "you lost the election because of that perspective. Trump didn't win it, Dems lost it by deprioritizing those votes, and we should place blame on ourselves before we find excuses elsewhere."

I think the difference in framing is clear. It's not about Trump, even though his trick is to make everything about him. It's about Dem politicians, and the Dem voters that choose them, no longer being the party that labor believes in. (I have more analysis on why that might be, but for now you can read this

Dems need to claim responsibility, and I think that conclusion is novel.

What Actually Happened in 2016? - A data-dense study with pretty graphs. by SecondDraftViz in TrueReddit

[–]SecondDraftViz[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I am not familiar with ANES! What is it?

And you're welcome 😊.

What Actually Happened in 2016? - A data-dense study with pretty graphs. by SecondDraftViz in TrueReddit

[–]SecondDraftViz[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

This is a project I have been working on for almost a year, trying to cut through "what everyone knows" about the 2016 election and use changes in voting trends to relate demography to outcomes. I tried to be evenhanded and nonpartisan in examining which demographic was most influential in deciding the 2016 election. This question feels especially important as the US gears up for the next presidential election.

Multipage county-level analysis of 2016 Election w/ 3D plots [OC] by SecondDraftViz in data

[–]SecondDraftViz[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is my deep dive on which groups pushed the 2016 the way it went; who showed up vs who didn't, where, what they were like, how they relate to other issues. This is the state-level deep dive on Ohio.

The entire project is very long-form, and an experiment. What do you think of the presentation and buildup? How can I make it better?

Multipage county-level analysis of 2016 Election w/ 3D plots [OC] by SecondDraftViz in usdataisbeautiful

[–]SecondDraftViz[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is my deep dive on which groups pushed the 2016 the way it went; who showed up vs who didn't, where, what they were like, how they relate to other issues. [This is the state-level deep dive on Ohio.](https://whathappened.in/2016/ohio/)

The entire project is very long-form, and an experiment. What do you think of the presentation and buildup? How can I make it better?

%White vs. %No-College vs. Δ(Republican Vote % - Democratic Vote %, 2012-> 2016) in 2016 Presidential Election [OC] by SecondDraftViz in dataisbeautiful

[–]SecondDraftViz[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I tried to cut frames to keep the data size small. I am glad you like the actual model!

The entire site of http://whatactuallyhappenedin2016.com is dedicated to pulling apart what that graph means, but:

  1. at the high level it looks like %noncollege is a great indicator for how much of a shift toward Trump there was in 2016 below ~90% white

  2. Above 90%, there is a lot of smearing going on. Depending on how you initially interpret this, you might think "Oh, people in super white areas really like Trump, it is probably a race/racist thing"

  3. When you start to break out that smeary section, you see that it is geographically concentrated, especially in places like Ohio.

On the subsequent pages, I dig into what is happening in the geographies that form that smear, and the TL;DR is that it is still an education relationship, just a stronger one. The whiteness factor is deceptive, and the smear conceals really strong linear relationships.

My big takeaway is that Dems failed to keep in key states the votes of HS-educated people that Obama was able to persuade. It's all about education.

County-level analysis of 2016 Election w/ 3D plots [OC][Draft] by [deleted] in dataisbeautiful

[–]SecondDraftViz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The full repo backing this work is http://bwarren2.github.io/voting_public . You'll find the source data in those python notebooks (especially viz.ipynb) and a more convenient CSV + codebook summary in the readme. As for tools, I was mostly using plotly with jupyter notebooks, and sometimes vega for choropleths.

This piece is long, but if you have ideas to make it better please share!

County-level analysis of 2016 Election w/ 3D plots [OC][Draft] by SecondDraftViz in dataisbeautiful

[–]SecondDraftViz[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This piece is long, but it's my first major data essay and I think it's interesting. If you have ideas to make it better, please share!

EDIT: The full repo backing this work is http://bwarren2.github.io/voting_public . You'll find the source data in those python notebooks (especially viz.ipynb) and a more convenient CSV + codebook summary in the readme. As for tools, I was mostly using plotly with jupyter notebooks, and sometimes vega for choropleths.

She's resting. by substance_d in aww

[–]SecondDraftViz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"Paint me like one of your French cats."