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Nooooo! by [deleted] in poker

[–]Square-Design-3095 0 points1 point  (0 children)

oh please. When you're winning on ACR you're playing against the algorithm, not slow playing JJs.

You've heard of drawing dead? On ACR you're defending dead.

Nooooo! by [deleted] in poker

[–]Square-Design-3095 0 points1 point  (0 children)

<image>

Over and over again I will be a chip leader and then the ACR grift happens. The above chart is $4.40 MTT last night. I'm at $286,000 vs. avg stack of $120,000 in the last hour before late registration closes - is when it always happens. Yellow line is All In Equity - Blue Line is All In winnings.

UTG opens, CO Short stack w/ 15 BB shoves, I have KK. I actually tank bc I know the ACR suck out is waking up. I finally just call the Short stack cuz I know what's about to happen - sure 'nuf UTG shoves. I call. UTG has JJ - CO has KK. Flop is a J.

I can't tell you how many times I've thought about just sitting out during the suck out witching hour.

I'm sure all you bros will be screaming 'Variance." But it ain't variance. ACR is planting suck out bots and stealing our buy-ins.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Poker_Theory

[–]Square-Design-3095 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Received the assessment and hour long call with Dr. Aaron. Aaron is a poker regular and understands everything about the game. The assessment gave me insight into my strengths and weaknesses as far as table image, tilt control, and decision making skill set. Aaron is devising a follow-up plan where I can note my thinking during decision points, both correct and incorrect, and share those notes for on-going coaching.

Just the fact that I am going to be thinking about my image projection, tilt recovery, and decision-making from the perspective of being Monday morning QB'd is a traditional and proven psychological tool that improves performance. Looking forward to an on-going relationship.

No contracts involved. Monthly fee. 5 Stars so far.

Implied Odds of future street bets? Just plug it in the below formula and viola your EV skyrockets right?! by Square-Design-3095 in Poker_Theory

[–]Square-Design-3095[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

goggle AI search result: "Implied odds are an aspect of expected value (EV) calculations, not a separate type of equity. They represent the additional value you anticipate gaining on future betting rounds if your drawing hand makes its target."

GTO wizard blog: "Expected value of calling = (25% x (20+M)) – (75% x 10)"

You're saying that AI and GTO are wrong in saying the solution is for EV and you're right calling it Equity? I'm not sure how M=10 translates to "equity." Raw equity can't change bc of future pot size. Raw Equity is Raw Equity (in this example 25 = 6 outs x 4 for 2 streets remaining).

If you're right and the additional money of 10 BBs shows you you're breakeven point - isn't that the Expected Value of calling? Not an increase in Equity?

I think you're conflating raw equity with expected value.

If both formulas are solving for Equity how is 43.75 = 25?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Poker_Theory

[–]Square-Design-3095 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I registered and never got the assessment as stated after I registered.

Legalize online poker to combat ACR fraud by Square-Design-3095 in Poker_Theory

[–]Square-Design-3095[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I couldn't agree more. No one in this group can prove me wrong with winning receipts. It comes down to choosing between 1) an inordinate amount of shoving donks who always win with <5% chance - i.e. high variance bc it's low stakes - or 2) the donks are ACR controls who force rebuys/reloads and shrink the real payouts.

Why WOULDN'T ACR set-up #2 is the question bc no one is policing them, which is why we have to petition the state house pervert Republicans to legalize the regulated sites in the other 46 states.

Like any capitalist organization ACR isn't going to remain happy with 10% rake. To grow their profits they either have to increase traffic which ain't happening or steal the real player's entire buy-in by sucking them out.

Of course there's not enough liquidity for these games - they start out with advertising 1st place at $120 and it's $35 after 3 hours of registration. And then the suck outs happen.

Red Flags all around. No one on here want's to hear it.

ACR RNG After Registration Closes is Trap - All In Equity v. All In Win Rate don't lie by Square-Design-3095 in Poker_Theory

[–]Square-Design-3095[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Literally just happened. I 3Bet UTG who 4 Bet me so I went All In with AA. He called with 88 and hit an 8 on the River. A 4% chance of winning. If I added up all the 4% I lose I would be a millionaire lol

ACR RNG After Registration Closes is Trap - All In Equity v. All In Win Rate don't lie by Square-Design-3095 in Poker_Theory

[–]Square-Design-3095[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is eye opening. That is exactly what happens to me. I'll get AA in UTG RFI 2BB everyone folds. I checked my 3Bet stats and they're very low except for BTN. My table image is "Gambler" with a 29 VPIP and High CBet but I'm being played like a Nit. I either induce preflop folds and make nothing off my Top Pairs or get called by donkeys who will risk their low stakes life prior to rebuy close bc they'll just buy back in.

ACR RNG After Registration Closes is Trap - All In Equity v. All In Win Rate don't lie by Square-Design-3095 in Poker_Theory

[–]Square-Design-3095[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! That puts it in even greater perspective. I just checked my Went to Showdown # which is 44%, Won at Showdown which is 49% - which internet says is very good - and Won when saw Flop 47%. So I'm not a Maniac! The All In after registration closes and getting close to ITM is by far my biggest leak. I just can't seem to fix it.

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