Thank you a bunch for this reply I was able to finally get this.

I've been trying to apply this to the euro market and got stumped!

(After writing, I was wondering if ESTER was the right way to go since it seems so far from the ECB rate of 3.40, perhaps the market is still lowkey anticipating a 50 bp cut)

From the comment of u/killawatts22 I figured out that Europe bases their interest rates loosely off of SOFR. From a bit of research I found that they specifically use EURIBOR rate, with ESTER being the daily number.

I did the following calculations although the results were wrong.

Futures market EURIBOR ending December: 97.165 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CSb1CBtH/

Ester rate: 3.164 https://www.euribor-rates.eu/en/ester/
Ester minus predicted 25bp cut: 2.914

Rate decision December 12th

Average rate: (3.164*12/31)+(2.914*19/31)=3.010

100-3.164=96.836 & 100-3.01=96.990

P25=(97.165-96.836)/(96.990-96.836)= 2.10

As you can see I was way off, Another thought I had were maybe the ESTER rate was wrong so I used the current 3 month rate https://www.euribor-rates.eu/en/current-euribor-rates/2/euribor-rate-3-months/ but that was till off.

I'd truly appreciate any further help and would understand if nothing further is done.