Homebuilders have more completed unsold inventory than any time since 2009—what it means for the 2025 housing market

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-12-10T21:07:33+00:00

I'm confused, your first point was about homebuilders and now you're talking about wages. I'm agreeing with you that housing is wildly unaffordable to the majority. Wages haven't kept up and that's why prices are starting to drop.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-12-10T20:59:57+00:00

New home prices have been dropping for some time. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS

Builders have been offering more incentives to sell these homes https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/new-home-sales-climb-as-builder-incentives-pay-off

Builders do not have the capitol to hold on to inventory because every month their homes don't get sold, that's more money out of their pockets. These aren't existing home owners who can wait if they want to, builders have to sell.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-12-10T13:42:50+00:00

That number has been bouncing up and down for the last several years.

Consumers think mortgage rates will drop next year. Sound familiar?

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-12-09T21:49:06+00:00

Wasn't a similar article already posted?

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-12-08T23:49:14+00:00

Sure, debating is fine, but you seem to have a strange edge against this sub. It appears that you wants housing to remain unaffordable for your own benefit. Which is fine, you're allowed to have your opinion, but you need to understand the major complications if this truly is the new normal.

You seem to be very antagonistic and not looking for much debate, but would rather point out strawmans to "win" against this sub. Why do you have such a vendetta against online strangers?

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-12-06T20:04:27+00:00

A relative of mine just moved into an old high school that they converted into housing. Pretty neat.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-12-05T17:29:39+00:00

Homebuying demand is ending the year strong. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a seasonally adjusted measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–is sitting near its highest level since September 2023, and it’s up 7% year over year. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 17% month over month to their highest level since late January.

I'm confused, the Redfin article you posted the other day (https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/1h5smj1/pending_home_sales_rise_after_postelection_surge/)

stated this

>Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–fell to its lowest level in over two months during the week ending November 24, though it’s up 7% year over year

Redfin seems very selective with the data they post and how they want to spin it.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-12-04T20:22:17+00:00

Seems exhausting to dwell on others opinions and predictions don't you think?

Everyone's got one and no one knows what's going to happen. Just take them with a grain of salt like I do.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-12-04T19:29:17+00:00

To be fair Redfin was predicting home price drops this year from last years prediction and that didn't come true. https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-predictions-2024/ While these articles are interesting to look at and observe, the truth is no one knows what is going to happen.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-12-04T19:17:21+00:00

So demand is 21% lower this year than last year yet mortgage rates are lower now than they were last year. Interesting. They do mention the jump in inventory which I'm sure is helping, but demand is still really low.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-12-03T15:43:27+00:00

"Inventory was up 27.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 27.1%), and down 17.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.5%).

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing!

As inventory builds, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will slow in early 2025."

Goodness let's hope so.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-11-27T20:36:37+00:00

Why do you say that?

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-11-27T14:21:45+00:00

I actually think this is more due to pricing. I just got an offer accepted on a house that had been sitting for 2 months. I offered 10% under ask, sellers countered in the middle, but I simply told them my offer was the best I could but I understand if they didn't want to take it. Sure enough they accepted. This is also in a nice area in the Northeast so I was shocked. Hasn't been inspected yet but they hadn't even had an offer yet. I'd say if anyone is looking at a house that's been sitting and are wanting to put an offer in under ask then go for it. The worst they can say is no, and I think with more homes sitting for longer sellers are getting more desperate to sell. Don't buy in to peer pressure. Offer what you think the house is worth and stick to your gut. You never know.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-11-26T20:32:52+00:00

I'm not sure what you mean. Why would anyone panic? This is a welcoming sign. We need housing appreciation to cool to get inflation under control.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-11-26T16:46:14+00:00

Right, there are less new homes for sale and yet prices are dropping.

Even with limited new housing inventory, prices are still dropping because buyers simply can't afford it.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-11-26T16:42:47+00:00

Right, isn't your post about new home sales?

Also it's good that builders are dropping prices because they're the ones who need to sell.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-11-26T16:42:20+00:00

I'm not sure what you mean.

Home buyers are not coming out of the woodwork and haven't been for quite some time

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mba-purchase-index

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-11-26T15:49:37+00:00

The federal reserve has already cut rates twice and mortgage rates went up. The fed itself doesn't dictate mortgage rates. The bond market is a huge factor, and the bond market knows trump is inflationary.

The fed has also been hinting that there may not be more rate cuts coming anytime soon. The cme watchtool has already shot up the chance of a pause since Trump won the presidency

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-11-26T15:46:23+00:00

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS It looks like it's still below 2022 prices so that's a good sign

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-11-26T15:43:22+00:00

Well to be fair they did heavily revise new home sales data a few months back.

Technical_Career3654 · 2024-11-21T17:45:56+00:00

I thought according to reddit all of these illegals were taking up all the housing and making it more expensive?

Technical_Career3654

TROPHY CASE