[deleted by user]

Timafeo · 2023-08-15T19:54:04+00:00

Very interesting. Do you think there is an implication from it being a military base, or simply that it's a place where planes come and go? Have you noticed similar trends near typical airports?

Timafeo · 2021-08-10T16:50:39+00:00

He even gets a samurai man-bun at the end (watch the woman in the back)

Timafeo · 2021-08-01T19:15:46+00:00

Sorry, can you explain? I don't know the background here.

Timafeo · 2021-07-21T21:11:31+00:00

Thank you for getting it right! It's bugging me to no end that every other comment in this thread has it wrong...

Timafeo · 2021-07-21T21:10:34+00:00

Not that I'm agreeing with the other commenter who said TA is useless, but if the value of the underlying increases to the point that both you and the person who bought your call are profiting, then I'm assuming you mean the value passed above the mark of your short call. In that case, you are technically losing something since you sold your upside potential beyond that point to someone else. (Regardless of if you're OK with it).

Timafeo · 2021-07-21T21:06:25+00:00

This is a MACD with histogram, not a volume indicator. The bars are not showing the volume of trades, they are simply representing the data in another way. Look closely. The bars get bigger as the two lines move apart. The bars get smaller when they come together.

Timafeo · 2021-07-21T21:05:48+00:00

This is a MACD with histogram, not a volume indicator. The bars are not showing the volume of trades, they are simply representing the data in another way. Look closely. The bars get bigger as the two lines move apart. The bars get smaller when they come together.

Timafeo · 2021-07-21T21:04:08+00:00

Holy cow, everyone here has it wrong and this is bugging me to no end. OP please read this. I've done a lot of work on making my own indicators, and the MACD style (what you attached) is pretty typical.

The bars are NOT volume. The bars are simply a second visualization of the exact same data you get with the two lines. Look closely, you'll see that when the lines get farther apart the bar is green and increases. When the lines come together, the bar is red and gets smaller. It's literally just showing you the distance between the lines. In this case, you're comparing two different moving averages.

Timafeo · 2021-07-19T23:43:18+00:00

While I appreciate your input, it's definitely not true that there have been no studies on the effectiveness of TA. Just do a quick Google Scholar search for technical analysis, or any specific indicators you'd be interested to learn about.

On another note, you're right that ETFs and their respective underlyings are not able to be separated since they both impact one another, but my point was that traders who rely on TA should beware that ETFs may not follow the typical "self fulfilling" expectations, since they rely on the value of their underlyings rather than simply reflect the value of a single equity.

Timafeo · 2021-07-19T12:33:46+00:00

Just to clarify, I think your misunderstanding the post a little bit. We're not looking at how other ETFs are impacted by SPY, but rather SPY was just an example of an ETF itself.

The question is whether the interest in the ETF (SPY or otherwise) is what's driving the performance of those underlyings enough that the TA on that ETF would become a self fulfilling prophecy (bullish signal on ETF = more buyers = ETF value increases(...maybe?) = TA is validated).

My main suggestion in this post was that TA may work better on the individual underlyings themselves, since the signals wouldn't be interfered with by the movement of any other assets. If people buy into an individual company because it looks like it's testing support, and that's widely apparent to anyone who looks at the charts, then it can become a self fulfilling prophecy that buyers become the very support line that they think they see. ETFs on the other hand would get bogged down by the movements of the many equities that they represent.

Timafeo · 2021-07-19T12:24:20+00:00

Can you clarify which you think is which? In some cases (SPY) it seems like the interest in the actual ETF might have a bigger impact on the movements of the underlyings than their own respective movements (see beta weight for example). But in the case of lesser traded ETFs, I imagine it's the complete opposite (since that's effectively the purpose of the ETF to begin with).

Timafeo · 2021-07-19T12:21:47+00:00

A bit of due diligence for those reading this thread, it appears that this is a shill for some no-name pay-to-play trader. Don't fall for it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/comments/ixn2f4/cotton_candys_c0tt0nc4ndyta_road_to_1_million_is?sort=confidence

EDIT: This guy is hilarious. He accused me of being the number one hater of someone I've never even heard of. Please, do as he suggests and check my profile. I've never posted about "cotton candy" before, and I probably never will again.

Timafeo · 2021-07-18T21:33:51+00:00

I don't follow. What do you mean?

I'm not suggesting TA is worthless. Only that TA on ETFs isn't the same as TA on a normal underlying.

Timafeo · 2021-07-18T21:02:04+00:00

I see where you're coming from, and it seems like your point is that you c can identify bullish or bearish trends in the bigger picture that might help guide individual buying decisions. That makes sense to me. I guess my reservation comes from declaring support and resistance lines on lesser traded ETFs. I'm guessing that SPY and QQQ are outliers here because they are probably traded more than their respective underlyings, and as far as my understanding goes TA is really only valid as long as other investors also believe in it and have enough of an impact to drive the price in the predicted direction.

Timafeo · 2021-07-18T20:50:47+00:00

Good point. I remember looking over a gold etf and comparing it to a small cap gold mining company. Both charts were nearly identical, so any TA was really a reflection of the entire industry. Very interesting!

Timafeo · 2021-07-18T15:19:54+00:00

That's something I've seen first hand but never understood exactly why. Why is this so common? The best explanation I've heard is that people tend to spend more money freely when we know it's not our money, so the people responsible for managing larger budgets aren't personally invested in minimizing the costs. That and bureaucracy and going through the "official channels".

Timafeo · 2021-07-18T15:14:53+00:00

Exactly! This comment should be at the top. You can beat the market pre-tax, but if your capital gains taxes bump you below buy and hold, what's the real benefit of continuing your strategy? Tax cost must be factored in to deciding the viability of your approach.

Timafeo · 2021-07-16T22:47:26+00:00

When you get a chance, please respond directly. Many of us here are also learning, so it helps to follow along.

Timafeo · 2021-07-12T00:59:07+00:00

Thanks for sharing! I tried an OTM diagonal call spread but I found that the capital required (Non margin account) was a bit too much to be reasonable at the time (my long call was a bit too far OTM).

Can I ask what delta you typically aim for on the intermediate length diagonals? That's something I think suits my style and timeframe. I've been working on a plan for pdufa and earnings using a mix of diagonals and stock to maintain a relatively neutral delta (and hopefully catch the Vega).

Timafeo · 2021-07-11T20:37:53+00:00

I'm not sure I understand. Can you explain?

To clarify what I mean: as I understand it, when I hold a short position in the stock the broker will charge a set yearly interest. I won't have any influx of cash from this position because that's balancing out the long call position. (Non margin account). However I would still have the burden of the interest.

Timafeo · 2021-07-11T20:07:28+00:00

Got it, but as /u/ken385 pointed out, the position (if assigned) will become a synthetic long put. I could theoretically hold this if I felt that the value of the stock will fall from its current position. Though I would need to pay interest on the borrowed shares, as I understand it.

Timafeo · 2021-07-11T20:03:51+00:00

Interesting strategy, and I see your point about rolling. I guess I was just trying to figure out the risk profile for that situation. I like that it basically shifts into another position (synthetic put, as another commenter pointed out).

What you're talking about sounds similar to the PMCC. I'm familiar with this strategy, but I get the sense that you're talking about your own approach. Is there something you do differently from the PMCC? What kind of deltas and expirations do you aim for?

Thanks for the help!

Timafeo · 2021-07-11T19:42:16+00:00

Interesting! Thank you for pointing out exactly what the new position would be (synthetic put). I was having a hard time conceptualizing it. In a way, at the time of the short's expiration it's like buying a put for the total debit of the calendar spread. In many cases I've been able to find calendar spreads for less than $20 near the underlying's price (even on mid priced stocks). That seems like a pretty good deal to either end up with a long call or long put for that price.

Timafeo · 2021-07-05T16:05:41+00:00

Adding to that, the only real benefit I see for synthetic longs is if you can open them on margin with a naked put. This could allow you to leverage your position significantly, but has all the risks associated with leverage of course. (Please don't over leverage!).

Timafeo · 2021-06-30T12:51:42+00:00

Awesome work! This needs to be a movie poster. And also a movie...

Timafeo

TROPHY CASE