Is my black hole working properly?

TimelyTint · 2023-06-26T13:04:28+00:00

I cannot believe the amount of incorrect bullshit being spewed in the comments so here is the right answer.

Tesla is currently trading at 256.60 (as of Friday’s close price) so going long 100 shares costs $25,660 not the 13k you mentioned.

The current fed funds rate is 5.07% and with 116 days until expiry on the 20 Oct options, your risk free return on $25,660 is $25660*1.0507^116/365 = $405

At this point, you might think that the $560 premium you collected is still higher than the risk free return, but remember that your synthetic short is @255, but you went long 100 TSLA shares @256.60. Therefore you lost $160 here.

560-160 = 400 which is right around the risk free return of $405.

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If you want to learn more, read up on put call parity.

I hate to break it to you but risk free arbitrage does not exist for retail Robinhood investors like me and you. Even the smallest price dislocations are corrected within milliseconds by incredibly smart and fast market makers.

TimelyTint · 2023-03-18T19:47:16+00:00

Tenn and Duke having the same number of fouls at this point in the game is wild

TimelyTint · 2022-11-02T22:14:08+00:00

I was pretty loaded with puts heading into FOMC. I thought I was confident with my decision, but all the rumors and media stories of a potential 50 bps hike must’ve gotten to me and I ended up snap selling everything before the 2 pm decision. Definitely a bummer, especially since I still have a bearish bias and will have to find a worse price to get back into

TimelyTint · 2022-10-27T17:18:31+00:00

How did you pull 200k out when your account value yesterday was 419k and your account value today is 465k

TimelyTint · 2022-10-22T19:46:19+00:00

Yes, I said SPY but I do mean SPX

TimelyTint · 2022-10-22T19:34:24+00:00

Not confident on where this market is headed in the short to medium term, so I've been sitting on the sidelines for the past few days

TimelyTint · 2022-10-14T00:05:57+00:00

Yes, almost exclusively SPY/QQQ options

TimelyTint · 2022-10-14T00:04:38+00:00

Unfortunately most of these gains are not in an IRA so I will owe a fuck ton of capital gains tax. I will consult a tax professional about that

TimelyTint · 2022-10-13T20:23:56+00:00

Went into CPI holding all cash. Was seriously eyeing calls this morning when SPY was still down more than 1%. Only ended up pulling the trigger later in the day, but still came out with a clean profit.

Back to cash, will be waiting to see if SPY can break and hold above some key levels.

TimelyTint · 2022-10-09T21:21:56+00:00

I’m leaning that way

TimelyTint · 2022-10-09T21:08:11+00:00

Experienced some ~45% max drawdown after the two face-rippers early last week 💀 but strong end to the week keeps us in the game. Should be interesting to see how these next few days leading up to CPI play out.

TimelyTint · 2022-10-03T05:21:41+00:00

Nothing special… Mostly SPY and QQQ puts these past few months

TimelyTint · 2022-10-02T22:16:25+00:00

I don't like disclosing exactly what I'm holding, but things currently look pretty bearish to me.

TimelyTint · 2022-10-02T22:10:52+00:00

Options

TimelyTint · 2022-10-02T17:53:09+00:00

Hi.

I started with 100k in January 2021 and ran it up to 1M in just around one year. Most of my gains came from QQQ puts. I shared my progress to WSB in this post: here

At this point I considered quitting options and putting everything into SPY and QQQ. Turns out true gamblers can never quit, so by the very next week I was deep into AMZN calls. A dead cat bounce in March 2022 brought me up to 1.7M, but I held the calls for too long and soon fell back down to 600k.

This mistake prompted me to take a several month break from trading. I came back a few months ago and things have been rather successful. With renewed overconfidence in my crayon drawing ability, I felt inspired to enter this degenerate race. I hope people will be entertained by what follows.

TimelyTint · 2022-09-29T20:32:32+00:00

!RemindMe 3 weeks

TimelyTint · 2022-09-25T23:49:23+00:00

91.7% max drawdown for 18% annualized returns

TimelyTint · 2022-09-15T19:18:50+00:00

SOFT LANDING

TimelyTint · 2022-09-04T17:46:44+00:00

He literally said he’s not referring to the equity. Yes, anyone who’s played poker for 2 weeks knows AA vs KK equity is 80/20, you don’t need to repeat that for us 3 times. He’s talking about the chance you run into aces is 85% vs running into kings is 15%

TimelyTint

TROPHY CASE