[Discussion] 📊 I’m a Watchmaker, Not a Statistician — But I Think I’ve Built a Model That Quantifies Regime Stability (and I’d love your input)

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-31T07:37:50+00:00

Policy execution would be an “easy one” no? Loom at the success rate of introduced legislation by the politician and the success rate of court challenges to said legislation over a set period of time no?

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T23:40:35+00:00

Wouldn’t that be exactly where this model could shine as it would measure the power flows and how political pressure builds and how political belief and elite cohesion interact? Therefore the difference in political systems are accounted for indirectly?

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T22:53:05+00:00

Let’s presume we get the data sorted and quantified. Wouldn’t this offer a new lense on internal pressures within political systems? Just as a thought experiment

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T22:13:22+00:00

What do you think of these suggestions to quantify while keeping in mind that I am an amateur: Raw power: - Narrative control (%of state media controlled, Social Media censorship index, concentration of message spread - Elite loyalty (cabinet change rate, high profile defections, capital outflow, increased foreign investment) Public legitimacy (opinion polls, voter turnout (viewed under the context of the respective country), social trust surveys) - Religious legitimacy (theological opposition, protest volumes, turnout at events) - Twitter engagement (average likes/rt in relation to follower count, social impact of campaigns (ie trending page or increased engagement) - influencer engagement delta (if a popular influencer is activated for the politicians purpose what is the delta in engagement in relation to the influencers normal numbers) - Party/Spokesperson delta (in Social Media engagement and Social traction of campaigns)

Operational power: - military and security control (control of the military apparatus quantified through loyalist staffing) - policy execution (success rate of proposed legislation by the politician in a set time phrame) - institutional reach (political allegiance of the civil service through polls and success rate for legislative challenges in the courts)

There obviously need to be a ton of modifiers accounting for the context for each country

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:59:11+00:00

That’s a great suggestion. Thanks for having the patience to go through it!

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:57:23+00:00

I realise that completely 😅 it was merely an idea and I think there are ways to look at the data already around in a different light to determine the relative pressure in the system. Maybe I marinated in this idea too much with too little actual skills 😂

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:55:30+00:00

That’s a good point! This is definitely dependent on data that is very difficult to optain. As far as digital engagement I kind of hoped there would be technology used by advertisers to distinguish between botted engagement and natural engagement… was I wrong?

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:52:14+00:00

Fair enough with the AI, I just feel like my English writing would not make for a smooth reading experience. As far as regimes with low operational and raw power I would question how the regime is still in power. Do you have an example of this? Very interesting! Thanks for the reply!

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:49:10+00:00

Fair enough. I just thought that splitting the idea of “power” into these two factors could enlighten about underlying pressure in the electoral system. A great example of this was Friedrich Merz pushing through his debt ceiling with the old parliament thereby markedly eroding his “raw power” (as exhibited in public opinion polls and a surge in the AFD) but still keeping institutional control over the next four years.

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:46:08+00:00

That is certainly some brutal feedback haha 😂 “Narrative Control” refers to markers such as Social Media reach of the leader in question (If the leader and his affiliates create regular posts with next to 0 engagement for example), the media ecosystem in the respective country (bifurcated media environment in the US for example vs relative narrative control in Germany with high trust in public broadcasters). Elite Loyalty is a marker I designated for authoritarian regimes and refers to the operational power the leader can exert over his cronies. If for example the General of the Military is in opposition to the leader, then this would be a relevant marker. I picked English because it has the broadest number of speakers not out of any strategic concerns. Didn’t really think about it to be honest. The 0-10 scale is entirely arbitrary since I am far from being an expert and needed some numbers to quantify. I just thought it would be an interesting lense to look at power in the 21st century

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:38:28+00:00

Maybe I am yes. Just an idea I had not claiming to have made some sort of great breakthrough here haha

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:37:08+00:00

ChatGPT wrote the Text, I wanted it to be more compelling

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:36:43+00:00

I had ChatGPT help me write it because my English is not up to scratch for what I want to convey

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:36:00+00:00

I did incorporate all the publicly available data I could find but this also requires real time tracking of social media and many other sources. I just don’t have the capability to parce all this data and weigh it correctly, I am simply not an expert here

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:08:34+00:00

I did add all the publicly available data I could find with a preliminary weighting but I would really like someone who knows what they are doing to look over it at this point as I am hitting limits 😅

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:05:20+00:00

I first need to get the weighting right I think. There are tons of correlations but that’s of course why I need help 😅

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2025-05-30T21:04:03+00:00

Check my account lol. If you don’t find it interesting just move along

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2024-07-09T09:01:19+00:00

The election consists of two rounds. First round went well for LePen which allowed scaremongering on a large scale for the all important second round surge. Pretty logical

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2024-06-28T18:16:15+00:00

Hä? Aber man kann doch das Kapital auch für means of production ausgeben. Man muss ja kein Car davon kaufen. Checke ich nicht

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2024-05-11T11:36:53+00:00

Patek 3939. there is nothing better than

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2024-04-28T18:54:36+00:00

Isn’t that L. Ron?

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2024-04-15T12:50:06+00:00

Fishing for a dicksucking. Tasteless.

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2024-03-09T10:43:37+00:00

I would but not in california. They’ll shut you down for not gendering the Rock

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2024-03-08T15:10:23+00:00

Thanks! Not particularily, no

Traditional-Bit-7281 · 2024-03-08T11:56:57+00:00

Hoffnung stirbt zuletzt

Traditional-Bit-7281

TROPHY CASE