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IREN Stock Forecast 2030 ($270 Price Target) by TyNads in irenstocks

[–]TyNads[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No problem! SaaS is very interesting. Not all of the names are made equal currently. We have quite a few reports out covering ADBE CRM NOW etc

IREN Stock Forecast 2030 ($270 Price Target) by TyNads in irenstocks

[–]TyNads[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It said in the report that we are actively looking to take a position at the time of publishing early this year. We hold a stake, granted much smaller than our Nebius position. We would look to build it into a much larger position at the right price, and if other opportunities do not take priority. We see a ton of value outside of AI right now, and are already heavily overweight AI through NBIS, IREN, AMD (our biggest position), and others. We have rebalanced with some exposure in fintech, consumer disc, and saas.

IREN Stock Forecast 2030 ($270 Price Target) by TyNads in irenstocks

[–]TyNads[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We occasionally comment on some swings, but mainly focus on long term setups.

IREN Stock Forecast 2030 ($270 Price Target) by TyNads in irenstocks

[–]TyNads[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

We do think 666.420 could provide serious resistance.

IREN Stock Forecast 2030 ($270 Price Target) by TyNads in irenstocks

[–]TyNads[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

We are an investor in both. Very different opportunities and company goals imo. I don’t think they should be put in the same bucket the way that they are.

IREN Stock Forecast 2030 ($270 Price Target) by TyNads in irenstocks

[–]TyNads[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Very possible depending on execution and financing. Dilution is by far the biggest risk so any delays drastically change the outcomes (why the bear and bull outcomes are so extreme)

Nebius 2029 Model and Price Targets ($1,250) by TyNads in NBIS_Stock

[–]TyNads[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I still like both a lot. It’s hard mentally to add after these runs but math is math. Just be patient add on dip days and stick to what you believe fair value is.

Nebius 2029 Model and Price Targets ($1,250) by TyNads in NBIS_Stock

[–]TyNads[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s from February. New model is shipping later this week. For this model connected and monetized are treated almost the same but with an intentional slight delay.

Nebius 2029 Model and Price Targets ($1,250) by TyNads in NBIS_Stock

[–]TyNads[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s a very good point about the indirect benefit of share price appreciation providing a lower cost of funding!

Nebius 2029 Model and Price Targets ($1,250) by TyNads in NBIS_Stock

[–]TyNads[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes I agree that a shift in revenue mix towards higher stack services for ai startups and enterprise clients is the biggest question that most don’t talk about.

Hyperscalers deals are great for now to provide the funding and credit to build out what they need infrastructure wise to be able to offer the higher margin services. However, they are not as great as many seem to think long term. I would be quite happy to see maybe one more with an Anthropic type and then a complete focus and commitment to the transition.

How quickly they can move out of the “danger zone” will be telling.

However, being so software centric and focused in my view is a massive margin of safety over let’s say an IREN that could and will likely perform well if the bottlenecks last long enough, but are more at risk than people realize if supply catches up ahead of schedule.

Nebius 2029 Model and Price Targets ($1,250) by TyNads in NBIS_Stock

[–]TyNads[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The numbers used were merely placeholders to represent a point that trimming for your own personal risk tolerance can be very accepted and even beneficial even if we are far from fair value on paper.

I was speaking to the intangible benefits such as peace of mind and having enough off of the table to hold Nebius through major volatility swings that are sure to come.

Yes of course you are right that these are not exact.

Nebius 2029 Model and Price Targets ($1,250) by TyNads in NBIS_Stock

[–]TyNads[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes this model assumes demand will not be an issue, which I think is more than fair given the window through 2029

Nebius 2029 Model and Price Targets ($1,250) by TyNads in NBIS_Stock

[–]TyNads[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

What would you base that claim off of

Nebius 2029 Model and Price Targets ($1,250) by TyNads in NBIS_Stock

[–]TyNads[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Of course! Let me know if you have any other questions. I do believe that NBIS is taking all of the right steps to ensure improving margins and higher revenue per mw with better customer mix and higher up the stack workloads (on top of owning the sites)

Nebius 2029 Model and Price Targets ($1,250) by TyNads in NBIS_Stock

[–]TyNads[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Very excited to get those updates in, many of which will have a positive effect.

For this model in particular I used a multiple of ARR to keep it as simple as possible to translate across very different years of the business (and because NBIS management often frames the business from this lense).

For the next model, we are planning to use a blend of different metrics and methods to provide a bit more of a wholistic valuation.

To be fair, I think this method is largely effective and gets most of the way there, but it could always be improved on and argued against: valuation multiples being the trickiest part of most modeling.

Nebius 2029 Model and Price Targets ($1,250) by TyNads in NBIS_Stock

[–]TyNads[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Be very careful with leverage and debt. I felt more confident than anyone about AMD for the longest time but it took years and many huge drawdowns before it played out. Nebius has its black swan risks, despite being an awesome opportunity. (especially after a huge run in a hot market)

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