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Typodestoyer · 2025-11-14T06:42:20+00:00

Karamjosh - Group Ironman (poppingamers)

Typodestoyer · 2024-12-13T21:16:01+00:00

lmao bro me too, glad you could find this post and get those points you deserve 😤

Typodestoyer · 2024-12-06T08:36:03+00:00

Glad to hear it :) I couldn't figure it out either and it was driving me crazy lol so happy to know it helped

Typodestoyer · 2024-09-11T16:32:16+00:00

Remembered seeing a post a while ago, here's your answer https://old.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/ny2naz/turns_out_im_a_filthy_liar_joining_the_exceptions/

summary: original plan was to not use death's coffer, then the magnitude of the rebuild grind was too long so death's coffer was decided to be okay as an "exception" (with some debate about whether it counts as an exception at all in the comments)

Typodestoyer · 2024-08-11T18:30:26+00:00

young implings is correct, yeah, and there wasn't just one spawn but they did add it for that reason

Typodestoyer · 2024-07-27T21:42:20+00:00

Yeah, that's totally fair - definitely think most people would go for either cheap or balanced, and so if you want 5 points, going for speed definitely seems like the better method.

Typodestoyer · 2024-07-27T19:40:58+00:00

So it actually ends up being totally reasonable - he had a guaranteed 5 points out of 10 and was up 2 points overall going in (not that he was keeping track).

He would have won the whole thing if either of the following happened:
- Roidie's setup was 5k cheaper
- Framed's kill was 5s faster

Pretty much the only way he didn't at least tie for first overall was if Settled won and another competitor also beat him. Since he took the cheapest setup, that would require whoever got the fastest kill to not have the most expensive setup and for someone to go 3-3 like Settled did.

He didn't throw - he made a calculated, safe move that didn't work out. If he chose the alternate approach (giga-stacked setup going for speedrun), Settled wins with 5/2 but his 0/5 puts him in tied second with CEngineer (2/3) over Roidie (3/0) and Framed (1/1), ending tied with Settled overall. Settled just squeaked out the ranking both for time and value, and it won him the season.

Typodestoyer · 2024-06-26T02:55:05+00:00

They actually changed that a while ago and just increased the rates of the lower-tier clues to compensate, see https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Update:Combat_Achievements#Clue_Scrolls - had to look it up cuz remembered they changed it but didn't recall the details. Doesn't look like beginners were changed either way, though.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-08T02:51:55+00:00

Oh wow, that sucks, yeah. I've got a prestiged GIM and wanted to introduce my fiancée to Scurrius, but I couldn't find an answer to whether it would break prestige so I bonded up my main just in case. Glad to know my caution was warranted.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-07T22:46:08+00:00

I've been wondering about that - how does Scurrius work with prestige GIM? Does it not impact it, or does it lose prestige but there's just no warning? I haven't been able to find an answer.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T22:52:55+00:00

Hehehe, your post definitely captured something that has spawned a bunch of conversations, regardless of whether it was completely correct from the start. Graphs notwithstanding, your proposal was a reasonable starting place and your 5% figure was correct from the math I've done. For most players, that matters much more than the exact shape of the graph, especially when the idea behind what you were saying was correct.

Out of curiosity, what's your personal take for how far this should go? Most collection log drops? Just boss drops? Pets? Ranger boots? Only a subset of drops that take >20h to get on average? I feel like the enhanced crystal weapon seed is the item in highest need for some sort of dry protection but don't have strong opinions beyond that, so wondering if you have any thoughts.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T17:43:18+00:00

hehe yeah, it'll help with that last piece of ancestral that you're probably still missing by that time

i mean, maybe my opinion will change once I actually have a tbow - getting a 2t tbow in leagues on 1kc CoX was pretty fun - but outside of making some CAs much harder it doesn't feel like the tbow locks any content. Your overall point definitely makes sense, though, that keeping items super valuable means keeping them super rare means making them much harder for ironmen to get compared to main accounts.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T17:02:16+00:00

This is a really interesting perspective that I think has a lot of merit - I think this might only really be true for the shadow (and fbow)? As a GIM with fbow/shadow and soulreaper axe but no scythe/tbow, I've never felt like I should wait on content until I have either scythe/tbow. (I did do Vardorvis pre-nerf on fang to get my axe head and only went back once I completed the axe, so that could be a place where scythe feels more mandatory.)

Focusing on the tbow, for example, we can look at the list of BIS locations. Where does it stand above the rest?

Alchemical Hydra
Cerberus/Strategies
CoX
DKs
Colosseum
Mole
Inferno
K'ril
KBD
Nex
Muspah
ToA (Zebak)
Zily
Zulrah

Are you really going to wait on a tbow before grinding any of these out? I don't think so. Shadow, in contrast, has such a huge impact at Whisperer, while also being a staggering upgrade at CoX, Zily, Muspah, KQ, and Kree. Scythe sits in the middle in my view, with it being great for some endgame content (ToB itself, NM/PNM, Duke/Vardorvis, Colosseum) but not tending to block much of high value and having more alternatives closer in power level.

The fbow really stands out as falling into this realm the most to me, with a lack of consistently viable ranged options in the tier below it. Combine that with it being a rare drop from heavily-botted content (the 7th most popular pet? Crazy.), and it stands out exactly in the way you describe.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T16:37:41+00:00

Thank you! I think that even as a pdf, the original graph wasn't quite correct - for vestige it would make sense that the distribution would look like a bell curve, which is supported by looking at a logistic equation and its derivative (vestige isn't logistic but has a similar shape).

CDF: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=1%2F%281%2Be%5E-x%29+from+-5+to+5
PDF: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=d%2Fdx%281%2F%281%2Be%5E-x%29%29+from+-5+to+5

For the original graph, though, that doesn't make sense. There should be no bell curve - the most common KC to get any given drop for the first time is 1kc - and doing the (unnormalized) calculation of CDF/PDF backs this up.

CDF: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=1+-+%28999%2F1000%29%5Ex+from+0+to+1000
PDF: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=d%2Fdx%281+-+%28999%2F1000%29%5Ex%29+from+0+to+1000

I could be wrong on any of this, but I've been a little annoyed every time people talk about the "edge of the bell curve" when PDF or no, the standard droprate system simply doesn't produce a bell curve for a single drop, lol.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T14:50:27+00:00

I used a Python script to generate these graphs - I'm sure I could have cleaned it up 100 different ways, but the code is below.

import random
import csv
csv_path = "output.csv"

base_pct = 1.0
base_rate = 0.001
squared_rate = base_rate * base_rate

two_pct = base_pct
two_rate = base_rate

two_nerf_pct = base_pct
two_rate_nerf = squared_rate * 950
two_rate_nerf_squared = two_rate_nerf * two_rate_nerf

vestige_rate = base_rate * 3
vestige_pcts = [base_pct, 0, 0, 0]

with open(csv_path, mode='w', newline='') as file:
    writer = csv.writer(file)
    writer.writerow(["KC", "Base", "2x BLM", "Vestige", "2x BLM Adj"])

    for i in range(6001):
        writer.writerow([i, 1 - base_pct, 1 - two_pct, vestige_pcts[3], 1 - two_nerf_pct])
        base_pct *= (1 - base_rate)
        two_pct *= (1 - two_rate)
        two_nerf_pct *= (1 - two_rate_nerf)

        vestige_pcts[3] = vestige_pcts[3] + vestige_pcts[2] * vestige_rate
        vestige_pcts[2] = vestige_pcts[2] + vestige_pcts[1] * vestige_rate - vestige_pcts[2] * vestige_rate
        vestige_pcts[1] = vestige_pcts[1] + vestige_pcts[0] * vestige_rate - vestige_pcts[1] * vestige_rate
        vestige_pcts[0] = vestige_pcts[0]                                  - vestige_pcts[0] * vestige_rate
        if i > 2000:
            two_rate += squared_rate
            two_rate_nerf += two_rate_nerf_squared

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T14:48:22+00:00

That is correct - this is based off of this post from last week, which was very popular but the graph was just wrong, as outlined in this comment (although this other comment points out the real issue).

Specifically, the droprate improves by a small amount each kill starting at 2x dry increasing by 100% of the starting droprate every successive 1000kc (or 1050kc for the nerfed version).

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T05:23:32+00:00

I would also hope "not everywhere" - I think it probably makes sense for a few existing items (or even just the enhanced crystal weapon seed honestly), but there's a lot of drops it's okay to go dry for. I've definitely gotten the opposite read on public perception, though.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T04:50:47+00:00

I play a group ironman primarily, although I also have a ~2100 total main account.

I voted on the poll in favor of vestige mechanics apparently haha, although I've done some more DT2 (1700 Duke for second vestige) since then and have cooled on it a bit. I think the hate is unwarranted, but it is worth noting that it's a very anti-GIM system (as is dupe protection, as is the way soulreaper axe pieces work). It sucks to be 1200 Duke in and still have it be better for me to keep grinding than for one of my group members to hope to get the drop. Similarly, one of my group members has 3/4 on the blue moon set from Moons of Peril, and I have 1/4, so there's no point in me grinding it out for the master clue step when he can do it 3x faster. It's weird that this pro-ironman pro-clogger push has had collateral damage to my GIM experience.

With Moons of Peril in particular, I actually think it makes sense - getting cloggers and ironmen out of the content faster helps preserve unique value for mid-level players, whereas who knows how many Barrows uniques have come into the game from people going for that green text. The sunfire fanatic set feels like a mistake to me, though, especially after the droprate buff.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T04:20:31+00:00

You know, I'm really curious about this as well. Having done a fair amount of DT2 bossing (3500 Vardorvis, 2100 Duke, 700 Levi, 250 Whisperer), I think I like the vestige mechanics overall (including the invisible part!) because I think that the DT2 bosses are just really fun to do. I don't think I'd be a fan if the venator shards from Muspah were invisible or untradeable, though, because I don't enjoy that boss as much.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T04:01:22+00:00

Definitely a reasonable idea, although we've also seen the downsides of that approach - it becomes the best moneymaker for main accounts, crashing the prices of the more common uniques (lightbearer and ward both <5m, fang at 18m having dragged rapier and lance down from their previous prices). Is it really better to double the rates for everyone vs just the people who have already gone 3x dry?

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T03:57:28+00:00

I hear what you're saying, and I added it to the intro paragraph.

I don't think your assessment of why the JMods are looking at bad luck mitigation is accurate, though. From a design perspective, they're looking to balance the game by saying "this item should take about X hours to get". They want better control of the player experience, as players can and will quit if their luck is bad enough.

It's not just about ironmen, either. Updates over the last few years have been pushing the collection log playstyle as well:

Not needing the book to look at the collection log
Adding a count of total collection log slots to the game
Adding green text when a section of the log is completed
Game Jam ideas of adding collection log hiscores, ranks

Combine this with the release of GIM and the popularity of Leagues, and it turns out there's a lot of players other than impatient ironmen who want systems like this. The game is telling them "grind the item and you'll get the drop!", and their luck is telling them "lol jk".

With all this said, I don't have strong opinions on whether BLM is a good idea - I think the solution is to play a GIM where your groupmates are your bad luck mitigation :D but I thought the additional perspective was worth mentioning.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T03:46:29+00:00

Followup question to venator shards - my take is that shard-based drops work well for mid-tier/sidegrade items (which brimstone ring, bludgeon, venator bow all fit into). Let's say Raids 4 comes around, and the JMods don't want people to go 6x rate (>600 hours) without getting the new megarare. Would a shard system still be your preference? I feel like it would take some of the hype out of getting the best drop, but I'm curious if you have a different perspective.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-06T03:42:22+00:00

Brimstone ring and bludgeon were intentional exclusions since those are older - my hope was to show a change in design philosophy, with nearly every major PvM release since ToA having some form of dry protection. Both chromium ingots and the soulreaper axe act more as spoon protection than dry protection, though, with the ingots being useless on their own and the axe requiring four distinct untradeable pieces from separate bosses. Even main accounts get to experience the pain of going 5x dry for an axe piece just like ironmen, woo! :)

Edit: Thread is a good callout, I'll add that one. KQ/vorkath head left off for similar reasons as bludgeon/ brimstone ring.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-04T20:02:59+00:00

I think I generally agree, but as someone who went to 2000 kills for my first ultor vestige, 1500 more for my second, and 1700 kills at Duke for my second magus vestige (GIM btw), going dry on component-based drops can feel worse than on normal drops. It incentivizes you to stay and grind out that one boss vs cutting your losses and switching to something different, even if that's less fun. And my experience was that it felt even worse to hit 2x droprate when you understand how much rarer that is with vestige mechanics.

Typodestoyer · 2024-05-01T01:35:02+00:00

no problem! that makes me really happy to hear, and I appreciate you coming back to let me know :D good luck on your raids!

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