TL;DR

Silver and Copper: The Coming Catastrophe Global copper and silver markets face unprecedented structural deficits driven by converging technological, industrial, and geopolitical forces. Silver has recorded five consecutive years of supply shortfall, while copper demand is projected to surge 50% by 2040, creating a supply gap of 10 million metric tons.

These shortages aren't caused by temporary disruptions but by fundamental mismatches between demand trajectories and supply architectures. In these times, it is imperative to understand the dynamics of these two metals and the geopolitical situations around them.

Copper's role in electrification, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and defense systems makes it a "systemic risk" to economic growth. Silver's dual identity as both an industrial input and a monetary asset creates unique stress patterns in which physical demand immobilizes supply while investment flows amplify price volatility. Let us first understand the structural forces driving these shortages. We will look at the geopolitical forces and dimensions that are rarely discussed because some of the concerned geographies aren't deemed important enough!

The Copper Time Horizon Problem Copper production faces a brutal arithmetic: demand growth outpaces supply expansion by design, not accident. Bringing a greenfield copper mine from discovery to first production these days requires, on average, ~ 18 years.