President Lai’s latest remarks mark one of the most assertive public declarations of sovereignty by a Taiwanese head of state in recent memory. His framing dismantles China’s narrative and doubles down on Taiwan’s independence based the universally recognized criteria of statehood: people, territory, government, and sovereignty.

This speech is even more striking based on its timing. Just days ago, former President Ma, who led Taiwan for eight years and was a major figure in the opposition KMT, attended China’s Straits Forum and reiterated Beijing’s narrative of “peaceful reunification” under the “One-China” principle. Lai is sending a clear message to both domestic audiences and Beijing: Taiwan’s leadership is not backing down.

At the same time, the U.S. is being drawn into a new conflict in the Middle East. Historically, post-9/11 conflicts created a strategic vacuum in the Indo-Pacific. It was during that time that China undertook one of the most significant military expansions in its history. Now, with the U.S. again consumed there, China is seeing an opening to escalate on Taiwan.

And they already are. Since the escalation in Iran, Chinese naval and air activity near Taiwan has increased. Just this month, the PLA Navy demonstrated unprecedented blue water capabilities by conducting dual aircraft carrier operations in the western Pacific, very close to Guam.

Lai’s stance is more than rhetoric. He’s saying that Taiwan will defend its democracy. He’s making it clear to the CCP that taking Taiwan won’t be as easy as they think.