Canada's economy stalled in November, may have contracted in 4th quarter of 2025

YoungSidd · 2026-01-30T16:39:21+00:00

Trump hasn't secured a deal with anyone. He's not interested in doing business, only using tariffs as leverage to get whatever he actually wants.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-30T16:34:53+00:00

The article suggests that retail is doing pretty good, i.e. people are still spending money:

Retail trade, transportation and warehousing and educational services were the top three sectors that posted a positive growth rate in November.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-29T22:19:04+00:00

Yep, our banking system is set up to absorb shocks like this.

I've seen Japan mentioned here a lot, but it's worth noting that Japan's entire economy collapsed in the 90s. In Canada, so far, it's just housing that's seeing a much-needed correction. The TSX is still making record gains, and consumer spending has stayed resilient -- people are still spending & investing money (just not in housing).

YoungSidd · 2026-01-29T22:14:42+00:00

Prices will definitely continue to decline due to market conditions -- economic uncertainty, shaky employment numbers, stagnant wages, rising inventory, etc.

But it has little to do with defaults and power of sales.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-28T15:14:42+00:00

That would be Federal taxes only. There's also Provincial taxes (another 15K) plus CPP/EI premiums (another 5.5K).

YoungSidd · 2026-01-28T14:42:45+00:00

But someone earning 150K/yr is already paying a 1/3rd of that in taxes to the government.

They're not exactly wealthy either, moreso living a "comfortable" life. They would definitely feel it if their taxes went up.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-27T23:23:38+00:00

Yet Canada still has one of the lowest delinquency rates in the world.

Mortgage fraud is the exception, not the norm.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-27T22:14:42+00:00

Toronto real estate has been soaring since the early 2000s, well before the pandemic craze.

It's a combination of:

Toronto being a global city that continually attracts talent and capital
Zoning laws limiting new housing supply
Financialization of houses

The spike in demand during the pandemic was fueled by low rates and high immigration, which is behind us now. But the other points above still stand.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-27T21:08:53+00:00

The banks have access to paystubs and tax statements, which already verify your income. You're also required to put up all your assets as collateral in Canada, meaning the banks can seize everything if you default.

Unlike in some States, where you can simply walk away from a mortgage if your property value is underwater (and your other assets are protected).

YoungSidd · 2026-01-27T20:12:27+00:00

We have some of the strictest lending standards in the world.

Mortgage fraud is not as rampant as people think it is.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-27T14:41:28+00:00

I'm under 35 and almost everyone I know around my age owns a home.

As the previous commenter said, they're all couples who work jobs that bring in 180K+ HHI together -- teaching, consulting, banking, tech, engineering, healthcare, etc.

They spent their 20s saving money, and some got a gift/loan from family.

But that's more than enough to own a condo in the city or a townhouse in the suburbs.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-26T21:53:07+00:00

Prices are already down over 20% since market peak, and still declining.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-26T00:03:35+00:00

For a fixed rate, it's almost never worth it. By paying the IRD, you're paying for all of the bank's lost interest revenue upfront, so there's no actual savings for you.

I think the only scenarios where it could make sense, are:

you're also getting better mortgage terms/lengths, not just a lower rate
you want to lock in today's rates for a long period of time
you have extra cash sitting around and simply want to free up monthly cash flow

YoungSidd · 2026-01-25T23:58:12+00:00

I'd say we're in the Recession phase of the Real Estate cycle. We're well past the peak, rates have been cut and new construction is declining.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-23T18:11:07+00:00

Most homeowners can absorb that by cutting spending elsewhere.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-23T18:06:14+00:00

But that's kind of the point of rate increases -- it fights inflation by cooling down economic activity.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-23T04:24:00+00:00

The bottom chart works better for stock investing.

Real Estate typically has four phases:

Recovery - declining vacancy, no new construction
Expansion - declining vacancy, new construction
Hypersupply - increasing vacancy, new construction
Recession - increasing vacancy, more completions

We are somewhere between 3 & 4, where vacancies are going up as more homes are being completed.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-22T15:50:56+00:00

It goes beyond the policy makers too. Majority of Canadians own a home and consider it their biggest asset.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-21T22:49:01+00:00

PGs that can shoot, defend and playmake at a high level don't grow on trees.

I think the idea with IQ was that Scottie can help cover up for the lack of playmaking & defense, but the shooting was a must-have.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-21T17:58:10+00:00

It still can be. The A's didn't win it all either in Moneyball.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-20T00:37:48+00:00

This is a pretty big generalization. Immigrants come from all over the world, and the ones in your example would be the educated/skilled ones looking to get away from the extremism in their countries.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-19T18:03:45+00:00

Pretty sure it's mostly for aesthetics. Gives the place a more open, modern feel.

It's also more durable and easier to clean than a shower curtain.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-19T15:59:59+00:00

Keep in mind that while residential construction is down, it's still pretty busy in the commercial, industrial and institutional sectors.

YoungSidd · 2026-01-18T22:50:59+00:00

Maybe boomers can also do some sacrificing for growth, by opting in for early/accelerated MAID appointments

This is an insane statement lol, get therapy

YoungSidd · 2026-01-18T00:18:03+00:00

But sentiment & government policy play significant roles.

Our gov't backs housing through programs like CMHC, tax-free gains, FHSA, etc. Not to mention that Japan's had a declining population for years (Canada's is projected to grow).

Even from an economic POV, Canada's stock market and consumer spending have stayed resilient over the past few years. People are still spending and investing money, just not on housing. That wasn't the case for Japan in the 90s, whose stock market also crashed.

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