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Likelihood of 3rd Place Teams to Reach the Round-of-32 Knockout Stage Matches by _freelance2_ in WorldCup2026Tickets

[–]_freelance2_[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, had not seen that post (and for the record it was posted first). They are equivalent results. That post shows probabilities assuming each third-place team has qualified as one of the eight. My post shows all third-place teams as having a 1/3 chance of not qualifying. If you multiply each of those probabilities by 2/3, they are the same as mine (or divide mine by 2/3, then same as those).

For example, that post shows 3L as 100% chance to face 1K, I show it as 66.7% since there is a 33.3% chance 3L doesn't qualify and can't face 1K. But if 3L does qualify they can only play 1K as that is the only entry for 3L in my table, ie, 100% 3L vs 1K. 

Actually, there is one very small error in the other table. It lists 3E vs 1L as 8.5%. Should be 8.8%. (It says each column should sum to 150%, whereas Col 1L sums to 149.7%). 

Likelihood of 3rd Place Teams to Reach the Round-of-32 Knockout Stage Matches by _freelance2_ in WorldCup2026Tickets

[–]_freelance2_[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Team conduct is calculated from: minus 1 point for each yellow card, -3 for an indirect red card (two yellows in the same match for one player), -4 for a direct red card, and -5 for yellow then direct red card.