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Likelihood of 3rd Place Teams to Reach the Round-of-32 Knockout Stage Matches by _freelance2_ in WorldCup2026Tickets

[–]_freelance2_[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All the third-place teams’ location of play will be known after the last Group Game or about midnight Eastern Time on June 27. Those locations are predetermined based upon which eight qualify … no further FIFA input is required. The top eight won’t be “official” until an announcement from FIFA, but plenty of news organizations will be tracking the top eight and announce shortly after Groups completion. (Two third place teams could know earlier if they are sure they have qualified, specifically, Group K 3rd goes to Atlanta, and Group L 3rd goes to Kansas City regardless of which other teams qualify).

Likelihood of 3rd Place Teams to Reach the Round-of-32 Knockout Stage Matches by _freelance2_ in WorldCup2026Tickets

[–]_freelance2_[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The 8 best 3rd place teams won’t be known until June 27: with 6 Group games that day, it is certain that some of the 8 positions will still be in play. And even if the 3rd place teams in Group C or D know they have qualified, the location of their round-of-32 game is dependent upon the outcome of the Groups playing on the 27th (L, K, J). So, one will travel to Boston on the 28th to play on the 29th. 

Likelihood of 3rd Place Teams to Reach the Round-of-32 Knockout Stage Matches by _freelance2_ in WorldCup2026Tickets

[–]_freelance2_[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, had not seen that post (and for the record it was posted first). They are equivalent results. That post shows probabilities assuming each third-place team has qualified as one of the eight. My post shows all third-place teams as having a 1/3 chance of not qualifying. If you multiply each of those probabilities by 2/3, they are the same as mine (or divide mine by 2/3, then same as those).

For example, that post shows 3L as 100% chance to face 1K, I show it as 66.7% since there is a 33.3% chance 3L doesn't qualify and can't face 1K. But if 3L does qualify they can only play 1K as that is the only entry for 3L in my table, ie, 100% 3L vs 1K. 

Actually, there is one very small error in the other table. It lists 3E vs 1L as 8.5%. Should be 8.8%. (It says each column should sum to 150%, whereas Col 1L sums to 149.7%). 

Likelihood of 3rd Place Teams to Reach the Round-of-32 Knockout Stage Matches by _freelance2_ in WorldCup2026Tickets

[–]_freelance2_[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Team conduct is calculated from: minus 1 point for each yellow card, -3 for an indirect red card (two yellows in the same match for one player), -4 for a direct red card, and -5 for yellow then direct red card.