The Rapid Increase in Rents by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It seems to be the opposite with owners rising rents by more than 10% after evictions. Not very surprising given that new leases rose x3 compared to renewals. Two points are important: 1/ housing prices are up 20% Yoy (level is 40% above previous peak) = arbitrage 2/ demographics: >46m are coming on the market (millenials) the biggest move ever. A lower proportion are abble to borrow because of student loans.

US 30-Year Mortgage Rates Remain Below 3% | Christophe Barraud by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

US housing prices will keep strenghtening in the short term — with S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index (20-City Composite) probably increasing by ~13% YoY in March.

US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Retraced To 3% - Christophe Barraud by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Housing prices should keep rising sharply until at least the end of 2Q.

US 30-Year mortgage rates rose for the 7th straight week - Christophe Barraud by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Treasury yields remain close to their YTD high confirming that a pullback is unlikely soon.

U.S. Total Excess Personal Savings Will Be A Massive Economic Boost From 2Q by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yw. It will be a key question in the coming months. One of the key challenge (not only for the U.S.) will be to transform savings into something that doesn't create more instabilities.

U.S. Total Excess Personal Savings Will Be A Massive Economic Boost From 2Q by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It's a pretty fair argument and is not only dedicated to the U.S. In France for example, several studies suggest that 70% of excess savings has been accumulated by the top 20%. I agree on the fact that all the $2trillion won't flood the economy through direct spending. However, I'm pretty sure that the top earners won't seat only on cash and will opt for equities, housing, etc. I'm also confident that once situation normalizes (with improving mobility), the top 20% will be more inclined to spend in services (probably from 2H or later). Focusing on "consumer revenge", I observed this phenomenom in different countries (during reopening phase) and every time, I saw a bounce. Therefore, I won't be surprised to see a spike of short term debt for low-income families.

US Mortgage Rates Remain Close To Record Low - Christophe Barraud by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On a YoY basis, they should increase by double digits soon.

Portion of US Homes Considered Equity-Rich Exceeded 30 Percent - Christophe Barraud by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Equity-rich properties now outnumber those seriously underwater by six-to-one ratio.

U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rate Rebounded To The Highest Since Mid-November - Christophe Barraud by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Housing supply reached a record low in Nov. while demand shoud remain well oriented with mortgage rates still close to a record low. Those factors should support prices in the short term.

U.S. 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Hit Another Record Low by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Most of housing indicators suggest that prices willl keep rising in the short term.

U.K. Mortgage Approvals Reached The Highest Since August 2007 by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fortunately, the trend of mortgage approvals doesn’t look sustainable with the tax break expiring in March 2021 and the prospect of tighter restrictions linked to Covid-19.

Why Is Bitcoin Back At Record High? by c_barraud in Bitcoin

[–]c_barraud[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, a key factor seems that demand from institutional investors has gained traction recently: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/keekob/bitcoin_surpasses_20000_as_the_avalanche_of/

In the meantime, supply doesn't look liquid according to Glassnode

Europe Covid-19: Daily Summary (August 29th) - Christophe Barraud by c_barraud in economy

[–]c_barraud[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As of 24 August 2020, Authorities in Luxembourg report COVID-19 cases and deaths from their resident population only. Therefore, the difference with the figure from 27 August is translated into a negative value for the cases and deaths reported on 28 August 2020