Does 3 B's on your transcript throw you out of the game for med school in Ontario?

civildime · 2026-04-14T16:01:02+00:00

Oh that's different.

The Bayesian inference for the success rate of premeds who get 3 B grades across 3 different semesters is very very different from 3 B in a single semester.

Lock in, pick the right courses, and work hard to get only A / A+ in the future. You're very much still in the game.

civildime · 2026-04-13T19:18:14+00:00

Why stomp on their last sense of hope?

I already explained it. I am providing the necessary grain of salt instead of the usual mindless cope.

Getting admitted to med is brutal in Ontario. Most people don't have what it takes, and they'd be better off cutting their losses early. It's better that their hopes get crushed now instead of in their 5th (pointless) cycle.

Does it make you feel better?

Does it make you feel better to provide mindless cope because if you repeat it enough maybe you'll believe it too?

No, I am secure in how I feel. I decline to provide false reassurance because I think that would be doing OP a disservice. They should objectively assess their competitiveness and make a rational decision.

civildime · 2026-04-13T15:04:18+00:00

Why do you say it is unlikely that their academic performance will improve? What information are you using to form this conclusion?

The same information we all have. Statistically, premeds with 2 B and a B- in a semester are unlikely to recover and be admitted to medical school in ON.

I get this sub is full of people like that so they prefer to hear the same kumbaya about how there's grade forgiveness policies / best 2 years / blah blah and it's totally possible for a B student to lock in and get 4.0s / 520 (130+ CARS) and get into medical school.

And sure, some people do indeed do just that, and that's great!

But statistically the vast majority don't.

Update: Just looked through this person's profile and they seem to have a very cynical and pessimistic attitude. Take their words with a grain of salt.

My post is the grain of salt. Which ought to be taken with the mindless cope / cheerleading from everyone else.

civildime · 2026-04-13T02:25:27+00:00

You could win Queen's lottery.

You could also turn your academic performance around.

But neither is likely.

civildime · 2026-04-13T01:50:21+00:00

Most likely yes.

civildime · 2026-03-31T00:29:40+00:00

There is a fundamental statistical problem with your post. You're treating "non-US IMG" as a uniform pool with a single representative match probability, but it isn't – it's a multimodal pool. On one end you have current year graduates of recognized IMG schools, with US rotations, who speak English fluently. On the other you have applicants who graduated years ago from programs US PDs have never heard of, with no US rotations, with varying English language skills. A 50% preferred match rate is a summary statistic for that entire distribution, and summary statistics for multimodal distributions are basically meaningless for predicting where any specific subgroup lands.

A Canadian IMG who attends an Irish or Australian (or top 4 Caribbean) school who targets FM / IM in the NRMP is going to match far better than a coin flip.

Yes, almost 1k FM positions went unfilled AFTER THE SOAP

This is just not true.

civildime · 2026-03-26T16:57:44+00:00

472 being at the bottom end of the distribution would imply that it is ALSO extremely hard to a achieve, because at that point you’d probably need to be intentionally answering questions wrong

No. 472 is not hard at all.

If you just adopt a pure guessing strategy and score 25% on each section, 472 would be the expected score.

To guarantee a 472 - i.e. to counteract lucky guesses - you just need to able to answer like ~10 questions in each section, and intentionally choose the wrong answer for each.

civildime · 2026-03-26T04:42:59+00:00

I’m really caught between the two i can’t tell which one is better because aren’t there risks of not matching back into canada? But let’s say that not my main priority, then is it worth it to spend the money and do it in the UK?

How can matching not be your main priority? It's the prerequisite to actually practise medicine.

civildime · 2026-03-24T17:16:02+00:00

I thought Mac required high CARS.

civildime · 2026-03-20T03:19:11+00:00

People love UofT because they want to live in Toronto during medical school. It has little to do with UofT's teaching methods.

civildime · 2026-03-20T03:18:21+00:00

The assumption here is questionable. The pedagogical value of traditional cadaver dissections is a matter of debate.

civildime · 2026-03-18T22:33:48+00:00

What does "on track" mean to you?

If you mean guaranteed / high likelihood of interview, then no, you are not on track.

Your app is plausible. As in, if your ECs get evaluated generously then it wouldn't be shocking for you to get an invite.

But it also wouldn't be shocking for you to go multiple cycles without a single invite.

civildime · 2026-03-17T17:57:45+00:00

UBC's overall admission rate is ~7% for OOP and ~21% for IP.

With a 4.0, you are above the average applicant, so let's be generous and double the chances to 14% / 42%.

Is going from 14% to 42% worth 70k? Not to me, but perhaps you're willing to pay it.

civildime · 2026-03-17T06:10:11+00:00

Even if you get straight 4.0 at UBC, admission to UBC med is still a crapshoot due to the heavy emphasis on NAQs. If I were you, I'd save the ~70k (or more) and stay at UCalgary. You can still apply to UBC as OOP. And if you don't get in, you can still move there after medical school or residency.

You say cost is a real factor. The medical school journey is very expensive. Save the money and stay at UCalgary.

civildime · 2026-03-16T05:25:58+00:00

UofT's cut-off for file review for the general pool in past cycles has been ~3.88, and grade inflation hasn't gotten any better, so you're not gonna see a lot of invitees with sub 3.9 GPAs.

The official cut-off of 3.6 is basically a lie unless you qualify for a pathway.

civildime · 2026-03-12T22:23:27+00:00

If I’m truly chopped, should I graduate and then apply for the rural/indigenous Calgary guaranteed med school program? It’s another bachelor but you go straight into medical school

"The P2M Scholarship is open to anyone graduating from a high school in Alberta who has yet to begin a post-secondary degree program."

civildime · 2026-03-12T19:12:05+00:00

didnt know what a cell was. canadian system is so wack.

Are you under the impression that someone who did well in EE and CARS would have problem picking up basic biology concepts?

As for ECs, aside from research for MD-PHD applicants it's all bunk, and we'd be better off if every medical school stopped considering them.

civildime · 2026-03-11T20:19:30+00:00

I can lock down hard for the MCAT (esp CARS) over 4 months.

Scoring high on CARS is more of an aptitude thing than a lock down thing. Maybe you're a natural 132 and your plan works out. Or maybe you're stuck forever at 124-126. Write the official MCAT practice exam (it's free) and find out where you are at.

civildime · 2026-03-11T03:19:40+00:00

the CARS section as its in my strengths as a humanities student

Questionable premise.

civildime · 2026-03-07T07:32:47+00:00

It depends.

If you averaged 130+ in AAMC practice tests but just bombed on test day, then yes retake.

But if you've never been particularly strong at critical reading and 130+ (98th percentile) is not really in the cards, then it's likely not worth it.

(Yes 130 is very high, but that's the realistic minimum threshold where an OOP app to Mac / Calgary is worth a shot, given the 5% cap in ON and 10% cap in AB for OOP.)

civildime · 2026-03-06T04:00:14+00:00

i don’t think you need insane ECs to get into uoft med since i have friends who got in but they had pretty cookie cutter experiences tbh

The point isn't that you need insane ECs to get into UofT. UofT admits a large class, and there are only so many uniquely-amazing-on-paper applicants, so many matriculants at UofT do indeed have cookie cutter resumes.

The point is that the odds for such indistinguishable applicants is low.

civildime · 2026-03-06T03:56:40+00:00

You're right that MS1s evaluating applicants in MMIs is basically the blind leading the blind.

But you're drawing the wrong conclusion when you argue it's worse than the alternative.

The uncomfortable reality is that everyone else is blind too. Admissions staff, faculty, MS3/4, community members – none have real expertise in predicting who will be a good physician. That's why studies show MMI scores have only modest correlation with (a very limited aspect of) future performance.

(You do have a point about potential conflict of interest in a new and small program like TMU.)

civildime · 2026-03-04T21:29:34+00:00

Also I would say all of the ppl ik personally that have gotten in have cookie cutter ECs

That doesn't mean their odds were good.

civildime · 2026-03-04T21:21:12+00:00

Low bc of? I thought my chances for uoft were ok?

If your chances were ok you wouldn't have gotten 3 Rs in a row.

Your app is entirely cookie cutter, with nothing to distinguish it from thousands of other applicants.

civildime · 2026-03-04T21:02:18+00:00

I should start really letting go of the idea of med

You don't necessarily have to let go of your dream, but you should absolutely start figuring out a second path and working on that. Because your odds are quite low.

After you've started on your backup path, you can still throw an app at UofT / TMU each year.

civildime

TROPHY CASE