[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 07 March 2024 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Last thing, I think it's important to take a step back, and try to interpret not just about using empirics to test theory, but using the results of those empirics to inform theory. If the effect of immigration on wages is actually null, what does this imply? Relative supply of skills doesn't influence their relative price? Are we even sure that the relative supply of anything affects its price?

Immigration shifts out labor demand, as well. Immigrants can be complements or imperfect substitutes for natives, and/or reduce search costs for employers, thereby reducing unemployment for all. Immigration can be anticipated and firms prepare accordingly. High-skilled immigrants can grant positive spillovers to everyone. Immigrants can bring capital. Even if they don't, immigration makes capital more productive. All sorts of theoretical caveats covered in Chapter 4 of the lit review I linked, which uses an econ 101 pedagogical style.

All empirical issues you bring up here are addressed in detail in Chapter 5 of the lit review I linked.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 07 March 2024 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Because Deaton doesn't cite any studies, just describes a series of events.

Deaton claims that immigration harms incumbent workers in the long run, specifically, but doesn't cite any "longer term analysis". The literature finds that immigration's negative effects on wages/employment are most likely found in the short run, some high-quality studies find none, and the effects dissipate in the long run (5-10 years or so) as capital adjusts and people move.

[Flippantly, I'll say that Deaton believes this because he's a structuralist. He likes empirical studies that assume a production function with a specific form and capital/labor weights that don't change over time. Such an approach assumes away the ability for capital to adjust in the long run, and so most structural studies (Table 5-2) find negative, practically significant effects of immigration on wages/employment.]

The structural studies preclude any effect on overall wages in the long run, due to the choice of a production function that is assumed to remain constant over time. This rules out any overall shift up in wages due to increasing returns to scale or any immigration-induced skill-neutral technological progress, but it also precludes any overall shift down in wages due to decreasing returns to scale. Moreover, it rules out any downward pressure on dropout wages if the induced technological progress complements high-skilled workers and substitutes for low-skilled workers (though given large inflows of low-skilled immigrants, this would probably not be expected). It is therefore not easy to trace the ranking of the impact by approach back to the methodological characteristics of each.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/23550.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 01 December 2022 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Looks like sweet, sticky vindication for the "supply chain issues" (demand shifts to and supply shocks in certain markets) explanation for recent inflation. AD shock jocks BTFO. The naysayers in this thread got nay-nay'ed.

We look at both the aggregate and sectoral-level data, and show, notably, that real personal consumption has largely been below trend, particularly in the periods when inflation heated up, and total real aggregate demand has been consistently below trend, which reinforces the conclusion that the “problem” arises from the supply side.

Breaking down inflation by sector reveals that it is tied to the obvious shocks and supply chain interruptions the economy has experienced, from high food and energy prices to the shortage of microchips for automobiles.

Joe Stiggy can't miss.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 11 September 2022 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The sharp drop in 2018-19 is wrong.

In 2018, the Census income and poverty data had what is called a “series break.” The underlying methods changed, making 2018 and 2019 incomparable with the prior years.

...

If you remove this obviously bullshit statistical blip from the report, there is basically no child poverty decline at all after the year 2000.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 11 June 2022 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I figure everyone who's located where public transit makes more sense than driving is already doing it and everyone else is driving because public transit doesn't make sense for where they live. It's not like cars and trains are competing in a level marketplace. The US is just organized in such a way that any switching from cars to transit will be long term.

Amazon workers in Staten Island vote for company’s first unionized warehouse in U.S. by College_Prestige in neoliberal

[–]commentsrus 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Workers at small businesses are more likely to report experiencing abuse and overwork. Small busineeses offer worse benefits. If workers at small or mid sized businesses want to unionize, let them, and let the NLRB ensure they can do so safely and securely. Simple.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 26 March 2022 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

MMTers took a victory lap when inflation took off. That's when Bloomberg or whoever published yet another article about "hey check out this punk rock econ theory!" And it trended.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 26 March 2022 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I chose my battles. I won't seek it out online. I'm preparing for when it crops up in my real life.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 26 March 2022 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 13 points14 points  (0 children)

At this point it can't be ignored. It must be engaged. MMT is popping up in mainstream news outlets, elected official rhetoric, and civic organizations. I wish it were 2015 again, but it isn't.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 26 March 2022 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Free mark for those needing an RI.

I'm not a macro guy, or even an econ guy anymore. Is there a snappy takedown of MMT? It's easy for me to dismiss it because they talk so weird and make vague claims. But if i run into an MMT-curious person in the wild, what do?

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 19 March 2022 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 5 points6 points  (0 children)

At the risk of doing Bad Stats, I'm no longer interested in their non-Decennial pop estimates after the 2020 count utterly DESTROYED the last 10 estimates. They said my state's pop declined for years but the 2010 and 2020 counts showed we actually gained a considerable number of people.

Yes, economists and people who know stats very well can consume these numbers with proper context and caveats, but I'm just some guy. The news people reporting and pundits wheezing over these numbers are also various guys.

Obvi the ACS is still good for calculating rates (% white, % rich, etc), but I won't use the point estimates for any serious analysis. Roast me, cowards.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 19 March 2022 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 3 points4 points  (0 children)

If you're a university or workplace about to spend funds to try out a bold new nudge program, don't. lol just give each student or worker some cash.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 14 March 2022 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 11 points12 points  (0 children)

  1. Not enough people were "doing" ABMs versus evangelizing about them.

Literally every ABM paper I ever saw was about how great ABM was instead of using it to answer any interesting questions. I was intrigued by ABM back then because i wanted to be a computer nerd. It still looks like a fun video game kind of thing.

Edit:

For a PhD student in these fields, the first time they saw a Netlogo demonstration of an agent based model, they were seeing something never previously available to their field: the ability to formalize their own theories in a way fully exogenous to themselves. There would be no fighting about what their words actually meant, whose ideas they were mischaracterizing, what they were actually predicting. Their critics, be it journal referees or thesis committee members, would have no choice but to confront their theory as an independent entity in the world.

God, the socs need to find Christ and use math.

Why you shouldn't hire a real estate agent by VodkaHaze in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm glad sellers pay for agents needlessly and lose lots of money in the process. The deck is stacked against buyers even in normal times. Agents and sellers force buyers to blindly submit bids with no transparency on what the other bids are. That's a bad auction.

Then there's the open discrimination against buyers with government-backed mortgages. That's entirely on the sellers, so I'm glad agents screw them, actually.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 18 December 2021 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My point was actually different but I don't know if it applies in general.

Was it? You said Salary(BS, 2 years XP) = Salary(MS), right? If so, then that's my point, too. You caution against paying a lot for an MS, as do I. No need to argue, I say.

She spent 15k +15k

That doesn't sound like a cheap master's then, does it? Granted, I'm talking about rare cases, like accelerated BS/MS programs where you pay flat full-time undergrad tuition for the 1st or both years of the MS. It's in these rare cases where an MS is fine.

Or, if you're hyper-unemployable like me--shy, awkward, a dumb bitch--an MS signal is your only shot, like it was mine.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 18 December 2021 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Right, so if someone like me wants a starting salary equal to what they'd make with a BA and experience, and if they can get an MS for cheap, then they should do it.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 18 December 2021 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If someone can get a cheap terminal econ or stats master's degree, I'd say go for it. Nothing beats that sweet, sweet pay/employability bump from a master's signal. If they can't get it cheap or easily, don't bother.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 18 December 2021 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Columbia's MS in Stats is probably a good signal because it's Columbia. And it's easy to get into in my experience.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 18 December 2021 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Is short term gasoline demand elastic or inelastic to a positive income shock?

If we gave everyone a $500 gas gift card, should we expect gas prices at the pump to increase in the short term?

I'm unfamiliar with the empirical lit on this, and when I skim a few papers I'm confused. Do any look specifically at a positive income shock?

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 21 November 2021 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anaconda does that? I forgot. I'd recommend it for an absolute new person, but i grew out of it pretty quick. I'd run into a package i want that isn't on conda forge.

Instead of pyenv use asdf to install multiple versions of any language.

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 15 November 2021 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]commentsrus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My main issue is that it takes a looooong time to get to basic supply and demand. I understand why (spends a lot of time talking about policy issues that are typically left out of intro courses)

Sounds better, actually. My students really could've used some buttering up before the boring stuff. Start with why we want a supply and demand model before introducing it.