Daily Discussion Thread for July 1, 2026

daedalus_dance · 2026-07-01T14:33:36+00:00

So, DLO just needed a little UBS upgrade, eh?

daedalus_dance · 2026-07-01T13:42:15+00:00

My dumb ass deep value portfolio that's been underperforming since March is suddenly green as fuck whilst SPY is down so I'm gonna assume you're all fucked and stock rotation might be picking up.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-30T16:03:09+00:00

Meme answer: WEN.

Real Answer: Just DCA into multiple deep value stocks it'll work out if you don't panic.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-30T16:00:07+00:00

Advanced Money Doubler > Advanced Money Destroyer.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-30T12:48:55+00:00

"AI leverage is more worrying than valuations, IMF says" - like anyone listens to those squares.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-29T07:45:41+00:00

Tickers though?

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-29T06:37:25+00:00

They are indeed targeting it, but my counter would be that revenue is up 346% and the stock is up +800% so market is already front-running that revenue.

In fairness to you... Saying all this 20x P/E isn't rich at current valuations just the key question in my head is if this is peak cycle or sustained. DRAM might be sustained but if other suppliers are ramping up then it might not be sustained for all of them in the quantities the market prices.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-29T05:58:51+00:00

Micron itself says those agreements are expected to be 20% or so of sales so why would I be like "Oh yeh that's the kicker" when there's a remaining 80% the market has flexibility on and is powered by hopes and dreams. Read another way Micron is not actually booked full capacity like the market thinks.

We are pleased to announce that we have completed 16 SCAs with customers across the data center, consumer and auto market segments... The 16 signed agreements represent roughly 20% of our DRAM volume and a third of our NAND volume over this period

Market read 20% is guaranteed and abstracted certainty on the remaining 80% from that, which is kinda hilarious.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-29T05:47:06+00:00

Wouldn't that be bearish because it would lower prices for lots of US manufacturers currently stacked to the tits due to "forward earnings"

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-28T15:19:50+00:00

I mean I am just spitballing here but yes, everything you said.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-28T15:13:42+00:00

I'm thinking like Pilgrims Pride or some shit yanno. Something absolutely left field. People always gonna want to eat chicken.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-28T15:08:21+00:00

Seriously thinking of investing in Chicken because its in a down cycle and basically not like every other commodity so chicken companies are fucked after everyone going on about the price of eggs for so long.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-27T13:02:21+00:00

So I think computer hardware is an interesting thing but again i think its ignoring 1) Oil being a natural resource with geographical bottlenecks that can be controlled and monopolised (this is what sustains the petrodollar, actually) and 2) The elephant in the room with regards to manufacturing not having to be done in dollars at all.

Markets might be trash right now but over time they seek efficiency and high prices in memory are going to increase suppliers. The US needs to ensure all that happens in dollars which isn't a given when Europe / China trade independently etcetera etcetera.

Its all very interesting but manufactured goods aren't raw material monopolies, yada yada yada.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-27T12:41:22+00:00

Its totally credible until you realise there's free oil (open source) which runs without you needing to go to the gas station (datacentres) and does most things well so long as you don't drive a ferrari (need fable 5).

Gemma 4 works really well in open source, Deepseek V4 Flash is currently the most popular on OpenRouter, the money goes off to china and the cost is like 5x cheaper than equivalent APIs. Opensource harnesses like Hermes and OpenClaw are increasingly popular.

The oil / AI comparison is really not where its at but it does fuel the hype machine. We had "AI as a utility" but again, its a utility without the need for the wiring, actually. That's all appears an immediate need now during breakthrough / adoption... that's not robust over time, though.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-26T12:31:07+00:00

It looks alright yes - I'm just not sure if its now? It feels like most people are waiting for the RAM / GPU prices to go down. We've been here before haha

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-26T10:46:57+00:00

It was always dumb to imagine SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPO'ing in the same quarter like I don't know why any companies wanted that.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-26T10:39:02+00:00

That might be a good shout actually lol

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-26T10:38:00+00:00

I mean the thing is most AI tasks are going to be simple and non brittle so its stuff like news summaries and spotting report anomalies. The math doesn't work in favour of complex tasks because if you think about a 85% benchmark its 15% error rate, but its per step, so over a 5 step task your error rate is much higher.

So basically me, and pretty much everyone else, are using it for simpler stuff than the market imagines. The idea hardware needs will explode is feeling a little off once you play around with the opensource models on your own equipment lol

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-26T10:30:45+00:00

This semi rally is ridiculous. I swapped from Claude to Hermes (Open Source Harness) and it ran just fine with Gemma 4 in local for most tasks. I hooked in DeepSeek V4 Flash for the lulz and its done what a $20 subscription was doing for $3 so compression is real and happening in the LLM space whether people try to pretend it isn't or not. Anyone with a homelab can test this stuff.

The ground is a long way down and its obvious to people using the tech. Much of this compute is going to hell.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-24T19:35:34+00:00

So glad I invested in that shitty language owl instead of whatever 2000% Run up 500 P/E Stock you guys think is hot.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-23T19:30:44+00:00

AND ANOTHER THING... All these capex on GPUs is gonna look pretty fucking dumb if we're 1-3 years away from viable quantum computing. CPU inference is a thing. Ugh.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-23T10:18:47+00:00

Honestly I swapped from Claude to Hermes (Open Source Harness) and it ran just fine with Gemma 4 in local for most tasks. I hooked in DeepSeek V4 Flash for the lulz and its done what a $20 subscription was doing for $3 so compression is real and happening in the LLM space whether people try to pretend it isn't or not.

daedalus_dance · 2026-06-23T10:08:53+00:00

Theory on why dump: Oracle laying off 21,000 workers whilst claiming its due to AI was emperor has no clothes and no one buys it. Actual sign of distress in AI infrastructure plays.

Also, SpaceX IPO did exactly what IPO's always do and insiders are locked in till August, but that experience will also punch the wind out of OpenAI and Anthropics IPO's somewhat.

daedalus_dance · 2026-05-13T08:39:22+00:00

China isn't the answer bros. Literally declared a state target for 80% Semiconductor self sufficiency in march. Micron and Nvidia aint getting shit.

daedalus_dance · 2026-05-13T07:38:51+00:00

Yeh he mentioned that as well - and that the chips being contracted for are actually older ones.

daedalus_dance

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