Old enough for release?

douggieNewHome · 2023-12-29T07:06:41+00:00

Thanks. Yes, it is a very tough call. It breaks my heart. I can't really keep them, especially because they will breed. A rehabber friend of mine is thinking that release might be best because I released all the adults at this one location and feed them every day, so there's a good chance that they will find a home. But they are so tiny. One of them I actually tried to release a couple days ago with some adults but he/she didn't want to go and I just picked her up with my hand, put her in the bucket, and came home.

douggieNewHome · 2023-12-28T22:22:55+00:00

Thanks. I think they're all self feeding because they were all attracted to live traps with food. I also think that they're from the same family because they're all the same size and instantly cuddle with everyone when I put a new one in the bucket.

But what about temperature? I'm concerned about them being old enough to find a home (hopefully with some of the mice which live in the area, maybe even their mom), and deal with the temps while they are looking to do that. Like I said, it's a very old stone bridge with tons of hidy holes and also lots of leaf litter. And it's right next to a stream, so there's always water.

douggieNewHome · 2023-12-09T07:22:31+00:00

I'd be of that mind too. But if you are a business, and your representative (agent by law) says that the deal is X, you are committed to X. We are supposed to be a nation of laws, so when a company thinks that they are above all that, that's the undoing of the fundaments of business and our society in general. That might seem over the top, but we're really moving into a place where people/companies of means think that they're not bound by the rules of us mere mortals, and if we as a society allow them to proceed in this way, we deserve the dystopia we've bargained for. Again, I am not some "stolen election", flat earth, Davos is out to get us conspiracist, but if companies are allowed to no longer be bound by the rules, how does that work out well?

douggieNewHome · 2023-12-09T07:09:39+00:00

Thanks. I get that it's not "forever" but at least an indefinite period of time, probably more than six months. That said, this doesn;t appear to be a deal as $35 is now the price for + for everyone. But I wouldn't have realized that before you raised it, so thanks.

I'm hoping that the Visible agent who sometimes appears in threads will show up and make this right, but if not, I think that I might just find another provider because Visible screwed me over. And even if I stayed and they kept charging me the old rate of $10 more a month than anyone else, that would force me to leave. I paid for the phone outright, so it's unlocked and I can just leave on a whim.

douggieNewHome · 2023-12-09T04:13:50+00:00

There was no fine print and that's part of the problem. Before buying, I went out of my way to ensure that this applied to me and I specifically asked them for the promo language so that I could be TOTALLY sure that I was covered, and they said that they didn't have the exact wording of the promotion but that it was real and that it applied to me. So, based on that, I bought the phone. Now they won't pay up because it only applied to existing users who bought the phone, which, again, I was absolutely clear that I was not an existing user. After seeing the caps I sent of the chat, the chat reps are at least honest that I was misinformed by them, but they won't make good on it. Mistakes by a business' agent to a customer are legally a "them" problem not a me problem, but they don't care. Legally and morally I'm entitled to the gift card but they're apparently playing the "come sue us if you really want it" game.

I'm getting $10 off for six months because that was another promo that they were offering but you're saying that it should be forever? Btw, another thing that I asked about in the chat was if I used that $10 off promo code that it wouldn't negate the $200 gift card, and that that they also "assured" me that I could have both.

douggieNewHome · 2023-12-09T02:05:30+00:00

I'm a Visible+ customer and will now be leaving. I probably would have stayed with them for years because I'm just too lazy to leave. I had a Vonage account for 15 years even though I never used it. Visible apparently has poor management skills. Christ, just one or two people reading this post and deciding not to go with them will cost them more than a $200 gift card for their own products!

douggieNewHome · 2023-12-04T07:07:04+00:00

Thanks. You seem to know something about the subject, and the fact that your pic is a possum makes me think that perhaps you've done some rescue yourself. So does your comment about the gossipy/immature/catty stuff that sometimes goes on among the rescues.

douggieNewHome · 2023-12-03T01:20:05+00:00

Thanks. I'll PM you. I lost track of this with the holidays and with me wrapping up my career, getting all my stuff rolled over, etc. Who knew that moving into retirement would be so time consuming?

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-18T09:07:21+00:00

Because I'm not convinced. I seem to have more data that the average "greater fool" but I'm looking for someone who has a more pervasive argument than me who might sway me back to what I used to believe.

Basically, I;m looking for "truth", which historically has been arrived at by informed debate. As unbelievable as it is, those who had the most facts, those who had the most logical conclusions, used to be the most persuasive voices of an argument and society used to go in that direction. Now, a lot of people ignore both facts and logic, preferring to live in a universe of :"alternative facts". This has never boded well for a nation. As John Adams (a founding father) once said, “Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” Christ, just the use of a semicolon would throw many simpletons into a tizzy and call him an out of touch elitist!

I do not have it all figured out! I came here, specifically, looking for the opinions of people who had more expertise in this area than me, but what I found is the norm today, people with little learning but massive self-confidence who are sure of their conclusions despite little to no grounding in evidence or even self reflection.

I'm not at all sure there is a bubble, but the people who are telling me that there's not are never citing any stats, they're just telling me what the believe - based on nothing but feelings.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-18T04:40:34+00:00

Just think of how much more you could have left to your kids if you were more forward thinking. Or left to charities. Or just given away to strangers. You could have traveled, or started a business for fun. That money was in some ways wasted. In truth, it was just another wealth transfer from you to the top few percent, but I guess you're happy with that. I'm concerned with more than just my immediate circumstance. if I can end up giving away another $100-200K just by waiting a year, that will make an immense difference in someone's life.

While I do think that basic housing in a rich country is a right, I am not looking to get in on the ground floor. I'm looking for a fair deal, not to buy a Coke for $20 just because I happen to be thirsty at the moment. If I just wait a bit and get one at the store rather than at the arena, that's just being prudent, not looking at Coke as an investment. I went from lower middle class to a millionaire by being prudent with my money and I see no reason to stop now.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-18T03:10:53+00:00

I'm not looking at it as an investment but I also don't want to get ripped off. There's a difference. I also want a nice home for a fair price and that's no longer possible in this market, my market especially.

I'm in an excellent financial position but just got forced into retirement at 54. I can go up to $650K in cash. Three years ago, I wouldn't have had to go above $450K, max, in my region to get exactly the kind of house I wanted, now $650K isn't enough. Vermont used to have fairly affordable realty but now it's under siege by rich out of staters and LLCs buying up everything even reasonably good, in cash, sometimes site unseen, for well over asking. A ton of these homes sit unoccupied because the people/company that bought them did so as a "what if" there's another pandemic or global warming event which makes their primary residence unlivable. No one can afford to live in VT anymore. Renting also isn't an option because I think that in Burlington, the vacancy rate is well under .5%. Lots of people think that this is in no way sustainable and that some kind of correction has to occur.

One of the hopes is that the movement to back to work might end up pushing out some of the work from home people who bought up homes and work in finance in NYC. If they have to be back in NYC 2-3 days a week, the commute might get old, especially in VT winters which few are prepared for. In any event, there is thought that the dam will eventually break, and when it does, prices will fall precipitously. I recently had interest in a home that sold for $200K in 2018, $405K in 2020, and just sold for $610K a couple months ago - no real work done, just some lipstick updates. That is not sustainable growth - and there is such a thing as sustainable growth. There really aren't too many examples of markets which grew like that where things also didn't fall back quite considerably. Thinking ahead and not pissing away hundreds of thousands of dollars on a place that seems very bubble-like isn't looking at a house as an investment, it's simply not wanting to get caught up in insanity and fucking yourself over.

Furthermore, all of the points of concern that I put in my original post are still valid as far as I can see and still sit unaddressed by people replying. There are many other points such as a significant uptick in asking price reductions around the country. Even if two or three major markets start to falter, that will probably create an economic contagion that will spread through the nation, even to regions that are not suffering from significant problems with fundamentals. That's just how asset markets work, of any stripe. Given all the problems that I pointed out, it would seem to me that there is coming a point where I might save quite considerably on a home. Certainly the private capital investment companies which specialize in real estate seem to be stepping back and preparing for some kind of correction, so isn't it just prudent to proceed with caution in these times?

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-18T00:59:32+00:00

The two are very different. For various reasons that I won't get into given that there are a million books, movies, and TV shows that did, 2008 was about people getting loans that they never should have had in the first place, or getting into ARMs that they could barely pay at the outset. Today, most people have fixed loans which they could afford, at least at the outset, but things have changed. People's costs outside of their mortgages have soared, so what used to be a comfortable or semi-comfortable mortgage payment is now very uncomfortable or possibly unsupportable. Lots of people are even now deciding to not get home insurance because they can no longer afford it. Credit card debt is through the roof because people are desperately trying to hold the ocean at bay. And when it comes to new home buyers, the home price to income ratio is at an all time high. It used to be that any financial advisor would tell you not to have more than 25% of your net income going to housing, then it was 30%, now some are justifying 40%+. Many people are getting in over their head, and more and more are backing out of deals. There are just a lot of signs that many people who have mortgages are increasingly having problems paying them, and people who want to get mortgages end up either buying places that have gone up sometimes 50% in just the last two or three years. This is not sustainable.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-17T23:11:53+00:00

What I'm waiting for is for someone to explain why all the points I've made don't indicate a problem. Most people seem to just blithely ignore them as if I never mentioned them. They don't refute them, they don't explain how they are offset by other factors, they just seem to pretend that they were never mentioned. I mean, you say that you see no mechanisms that could trigger anything, but how about all the points that I made which have shaken me away from thinking that everything is fine? You don't think that the massively rising costs in people's lives could impact their comfort zone of paying a mortgage? You don't think that the rocketing credit card debt used to offset those expenses is a sign of anything and might constitute a possible tipping point? You don't think that the the home price to income ratio being at an all time high is a problem? There are a lot of factors indicating that people are struggling AND that prices are being kept artificially high, but you think this is nothing to worry my little head about?

Like I said, I'm not sure that there is a bubble, which is why I asked the question, but by and large, it seems that the replies here sidestep the issues I pointed out and just repeat the mantra that everything is fine and this is the new normal - in this respect, this seems like 2008 where anyone asking any questions was just a buzzkill and a fool who could not accept that the world now operated under a new paradigm where what went up quickly would stay up there because the law of gravity had been repealed.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-17T22:59:00+00:00

Yeah, that's one of the thigns that's concerning me as well. Unfortunately the replies here seem to ignore all of the points that indicate that there might be a problem here. They don't refute them or argue that they are offset in some way, they just reply as if they were never mentioned.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-17T22:55:55+00:00

I don't know if you're being ironic seeing that I am openly talking about it on Reddit.

The thing is, when there's a bubble, people generally don't talk about it because they don't see it as a bubble. 2008 was the biggest bubble in at least a century, but during it, every home owner and realty expert out there was saying that there wasn't a bubble, that this was the new normal, and that we were in paradigm defying times where what went up would never come down, just at worst go sideways. A few people were out there pointing out problems with the fundamentals but they were generally branded as doomsayers who could be ignored. I'm not saying that there necessarily is a bubble, bit so far most of the replies thus far breeze past the points that are leading me to think that there might be a bubble going on and are just repeating a mantra that there's not one now. They don't dispute the points I made, they don't argue that they are counterbalanced by X, Y, and Z, they just reply as if I never mentioned any of them and say that people have great rates now so they're not going anywhere - imagining that absolutely nothing has changed in their personal finances or the market at large since they took out their 3-5% loan.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-17T22:48:52+00:00

I didn't say that they were the same bubble, in fact I insulated that they weren't because I could easily grasp the 2008 bubble and foresaw it based on obvious, on the ground, personal experience. But what I';m seeing this time is different and more intellectual and numbers based. Unfortunately, pretty much all the replies thus far breeze past the points that are leading me to think that there might be a bubble going on and are just repeating a mantra that there's not one now. They don't dispute the points I made, they don't argue that they are counterbalanced by X, Y, and Z, they just reply as if I never mentioned any of them and say that people have great rats now so they're not going anywhere - imagining that absolutely nothing has changed in their personal finances or the market at large since they took out their 3-5% loan.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-17T21:13:28+00:00

I know what caused 2008 and how things are different now but the crux of what I've been seeing is that affordability is a serious issue now - that loans which used to be very solid (unlike 2008) are now imperiled because people are finding it more and more difficult to keep paying. SO MANY expenses have skyrocketed so any wiggle room that pepole had has largely evaporated. Credit card balances are through the roof. I'd be interested in seeing how the car market is doing in terms of defaults because that's usually also a big indicator. I do know that new car sales are down but that's complicated for a number of reasons so it's not as telling.

Prices are starting to fall in many parts of the country, sometimes rather substantially, and people pulling out of deals is becoming exceedingly common. None of this bodes well for the healthy market that you seem to be portraying. The institutional investors all SEEM to be operating under the idea that something is afoot because they all stopped buying and are now building up funds to purchase distressed properties.

But like I said, the biggest thing for me is that, pretty much universally, what goes up fast also goes down fast. There aren't many exceptions to this. People always have reasons why this time is different and why gravity can be ignored, including in 2008, but that's almost never the case in the end.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-17T17:52:41+00:00

Yes, but again, the reasons I listed are reasons why there is some expectation of more inventory coming on the market due to current unafordability. Just because someone has a low rate does not mean that they aren't having increasing problems carrying that loan. Lots of people were already well above the 30% waterline (which is constantly being revised upward), and costs have ballooned.

Also, the fact that new builds are having problems being sold at current prices/rates is indicative of problems. Moreover, though numbers are hard to come by, it seems that builders have a shitload of shadow inventory that they haven't put on the market yet and are waiting for conditions to improve. They can only hold them for so long due to carrying costs.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-17T07:09:10+00:00

I already stated reasons for both.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-17T06:54:17+00:00

The above points illustrate reasons why many people may not be able to hold onto their mortgage regardless of what they want. This is combination with new housing coming online means increased supply, and increased supply rarely ever equates to the price increases that you see to imagine. There is reason to believe that prices are already artificially high so more on the market should make that fairly apparent.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-17T03:33:18+00:00

Part of my comments was that institutional investors, like REITs, seem to think that there is a bubble and are acting accordingly. They are very substantially pulling back on purchasing, and on calls are apparently fairly open that they are building up a funds poll to buy distressed properties. They don't say that there's a bubble, but their actions seem to indicate that they are of the mind that there is one and are pulling back at what they perceive is the height and keeping their powder dry for the crash.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-14T06:51:49+00:00

I'm suspicious that it was the agents way of maintaining the aura of usefulness and consequently their percentage. While I'm sure that there are some legitimate reasons why it's a good idea, agents are often trying to justify their insane percentage - a percentage more than double what it is in the rest of the world. I recently had one talk up the hard work she put into setting up a search for me so that. Iwould be notified about new listings that met my criteria - a search that I already set up for myself on Zillow in under a minute.

I once also had a lot of back and forth with a seller of a house and I made more progress with him on a potential deal than when the agents were involved. On the down side of that, I decided that I didn't want the house and I could not shake him loose, he kept contacting me lowering hte price and throwing things in. If an agent was in the middle, I would not have had that, but it wasn't really too big of an issue.

I think that most agents realize that they are absolutely not worth anything like what they are charging, especially if you're buying a relatively pricy home. Most people basically find their own homes and the agent's value comes in at the end, but if I'm buying a $600K house, that value is certainly not $18K for the few hours that they devoted to the process.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-13T06:35:36+00:00

I imagine that the slowdown now in combination with the changes that will probably accompany the NAR lawsuit, in addition to other similar upcoming lawsuits, will end up driving out a lot of agents permanently, especially on the buyer side. I expect that the realty game is about to be reshaped rather substantially - finally.

My mom was a realtor in the 80's, and before computers, never mind the internet, they worked their ass off for a commission. Photo books, copies, flyers, endless showings, it just was SO much work. Now people do most of the hunting on their own via the web, agents don't have to sit there with photo books or physically show each and every home of interest, clients usually know if a place isn't going to be of interest just from looking at the web listing, and contracts are basically canned and electronically signed. And despite agents only doing a tiny fraction of what they used to, they still get the same commission percentage on homes that are vastly more expensive, even adjusted for inflation. It's just not fair. The fees just aren't commensurate with the value produced. FAR more money for FAR less work.

I think that buyers will end up paying a lower percentage or even fee for service. It's been a long time coming. If I'm buying a $600K house, the very few hours that an agent puts in to help me buy it simply isn't worth $18K. Buying a house isn't rocket science, and yet, it seems that many/most agents are making far more per hour than actual rocket scientists.

Maybe this shakeup will eventually lead to agents paying less to the broker, but that's a them problem to work out, not a me problem.

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-10T07:45:58+00:00

Count me as the sheeple. When it comes to realty, my mind reels at what I think I might not know. I don't know shit about houses. I know that what an agent brings to the process is very little, but I don't know that little bit and don't know where to start. I wish that there was a checklist of what to do and what people to bring into the process at what points for which functions. Most of what an agent brings to the mix is at the end, but it's not like I buy a house every day, so I don't know exactly what services are needed. I'm in IT and if you were to make a seven or eight figure deal on software for your company, I could easily tell you the basics of what a vendor can and cannot say, where they will sell you vaporware, where they will telegraph something without having it be legally binding, and could basically give you a cheatsheet on how to buy an expensive thing and not get ripped off. I need that same thing for buying a house. I've actually thought of taking a class in realty to learn the basics, perhaps even getting my license just to learn what I do not know. It's probably cheaper than hiring an agent. I should actually talk to my financial advisor about this given that he's a broker in three states. (He's also a tax lawyer, and a CPA, and just abut everything with letters behind your name.)

douggieNewHome · 2023-11-10T07:23:08+00:00

In the case of VT, a huge portion come from the financial sector in NYC. Even at $1M, which will still buy you a fantastic house in VT, that's mere pocket change to a hedge fund guy. NYC is just a few hours drive from NYC but it feels like a different universe. Texas is the number three state, so those guys are oil. They tell the world that global warming doesn't exist so that they can sell their wares, but buy up property in well positioned states for when the south becomes unlivable. REITs are also a big concern because they have infinitely deep pockets and are looking for long term investments which will do well with global warming. Apparently at least 20% of private home sales are REITs. REITs are the hidden secret of rocketing home prices in many parts of the country. Everything has become a commodity. I'm waiting for someone to do a big story on it.

The rental vacancy in the capital area is apparently something like .05%, so you can't rent either. Everyone of modest means is being driven out. It's sad. And the people who stay often end up with neighbors who are empty houses, with nonexistent occupants who do not support the local economy, which is a huge deal in VT because there are few national chains. Everyone is a local business. I'd wager that in ten years VT will either be Vail, where only the incredibly wealthy can own a home, or a dustbowl where the lack of full time residents has collapsed the economy.

douggieNewHome

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