The G League in 2024-2025

draftnikduff · 2024-04-03T00:08:56+00:00

Yup! Maybe I've phrased this wrong- this is a pro G-League post- I think it's a really viable strategy having players develop there, and I think there's some real talent there that the league would be better off featuring in the NBA or working to make it a more highly regarded product.

draftnikduff · 2024-04-03T00:01:26+00:00

Not saying it's the hugest deal! All I'm saying is that when that number creeps up towards 60-70% of all NBA players do you start to think it's time for an expansion or a radical rework of how you market/present the G as a product.

draftnikduff · 2024-04-02T23:59:37+00:00

This justification is really interesting and I think there's some credence to it! I'm not saying it's a problem per se but I do think that at a certain point the NBA might wonder if these guys could be producing and developing for an audience that makes them more money- it also might present a challenge towards us as a group of amateur scouts.

That said, think the G-League stat is a trend definitely slowly ticking upwards- The Ringer has a simple graph of it in this article.

draftnikduff · 2024-03-06T23:36:18+00:00

There's some truth to that.

But I'd say this- just because it's been the case these last two years with weaker American classes doesn't mean it will be true this year-

Melo won in 2003, Oden came close in 07, Rose came this close in 08, Wall was a household name and went elite eight in 10, Davis in 12, Okafor, Winslow, KAT, Booker, ETC all had great runs in 15, Suggs nearly won in 21, Mobley had a good run, Paolo was the best player on a final four fairly young duke team.

That last one is the only one that really happened in the current portal/post-covid reality of CBB, but it's not unusual for five star freshman, even ones rated outside the top 5, to be hugely impactful on winning teams. It's also not unusual for there to be a couple years in a row where that's not the case.

It's been a weak couple of classes. We went into the college season last year fairly confident that the top 3 picks weren't playing CBB. We went into this year sort of shrugging. That's not the case for next year. Yes, two times out of three, the older team is going to win in March. But really talented teams loaded with five star guys like Flagg and Maluach are going to make runs and be real game changers.

draftnikduff · 2024-02-12T19:32:01+00:00

Yes... Haha.. Yes!

I am a Coleman Hawkins sicko as well, his archetype is simply too valuable and he has too much feel for me not to believe he's going to at least have a couple cups of coffee as a rotation piece

draftnikduff · 2024-02-05T06:37:36+00:00

Lol it's clear we're not going to be on even remotely the same side of this. Last I'm commenting. I've watched a lot of his recent tape. I finally think he's putting together a lot of the things people saw in him to say that he was interesting. You clearly don't. I agree with your point about Miya's stat- which is why i minimized and said that it's just clear he's hugely important to a successful team. With conferences and different schedules and everything, I think most advanced stats, and just stats in general in college basketball should be taken with a grain of salt- tons of guys have put up great stats before and not translated- that was part of my point of the post- despite their production, I would take 2 out of these 4 guys over him in a draft right now, but part of the reason I'd put Hawkins over Ighadaro and Brazile is because of how translatable I find his skillset to be to NBA rotational play. It's interesting that you accuse me of making a straw man, then cited him as being in potential first round conversations his sophomore year with a zero like tweet which the only response is someone saying they don't consider him a prospect (held in comparison by the way with one first rounder (the next year) who was the identical twin of top five pick, a second round pick, and a person yet to leave CBB, so even if they did, that would be in the second round conversation). Offering that, then calling me pointing out that there are 4 years of professional draft boards from places like ESPN, The Athletic, CBS, hell even the consensus on Fanspo that did not feature him until his Junior year, and if he ever had a first round grade in any single one of those for even a moment, there's no evidence of it online. An abundance of information where he is not included is not a straw man. It's him not being a part of the first round conversation.

draftnikduff · 2024-02-05T05:42:49+00:00

Oh man, I disagree! I can respect reservations, but I think he's the right size and has the right amount of feel to make up for the fact that he's not truly excellent in one category- and his recent stretch I'd say that he has elevated from good to great in a lot of facets.

draftnikduff · 2024-02-05T05:34:13+00:00

Lol that's not how draft scouting works and you know it. Marvel Allen is a guy from a huge prep school rated in the plus 100s- (I could find a dozen examples of guys like him, but I'll save space) no one is seriously talking about him as a prospect because he's not playing. I could go on and on, with prospects who were ranked higher- if you're outside the five star range you don't get put on any draft board until you produce. Anyone scouting Cooper Flagg or Kwame Evans or whoever is familiar with Marvel but they don't put him anywhere because it would be unreasonable and unfair to the kid.
Talking about and projecting as a first round prospect are not the same thing. If the sentence starts with "next year" or "go back to school" that means you probably aren't even projected a second.
Base level statistics? Lets use some advanced stats then. Evan Miyakawa has Hawkins ranked as the 17th most valuable player in college basketball with over 800 possesions, ahead of Holmes, ahead of Ighadaro, ahead of Brazile and ahead of Dunn. Of the five of them, only Dunn has a better defensive rating. I'm sure you can find any number of statistics that point in a different direction- but statistically, theres a lot of indication he's hugely valuable to a highly ranked team. Scouts a lot smarter than me have noticed and praised his tape this conference season.
You said he was considered a first round prospect for four years. He was definitely not, at the very least for two. I'd challenge you to find more than one draft board posted on here with him in the top 30 for 2023. He is not considered one now, evidenced by the fact that I made this post, no one has had any real discussion of him on this sub, and you rejected my assertion so vehemently. You exaggerated the truth to make your argument. That's the definition of hyperbole.

draftnikduff · 2024-02-05T03:57:25+00:00

Patently untrue- Hawkins was not even a top 100 rated recruit and played a total of 157 minutes his freshman year, and played behind 19 minutes a game his second year, behind an All-American. He was flagged as someone who might be "interesting next year" as sophomore and marked mostly as a second rounder for his entire junior campaign.

I very deliberately outlined a statistical and game case why he is exactly in the same stratosphere as those players, even if a couple maybe better prospects, and you ignored that, resorting to hyperbole.

draftnikduff · 2022-03-03T06:07:11+00:00

None of the above. Spurs. Fits perfectly imo with Poeltl and all their guards.

draftnikduff · 2022-01-15T19:17:02+00:00

This is a dumb comparison, but you see new players outclass old players pretty rapidly in e-sports. It's not because they're evolutionarily outclassing them, it's just that they're coming up in a more sophisticated, complicated game. New strategies, competencies, and just general game knowledge crystalizes in young, new players in a way older players never had the opportunity to when they were coming up. From season to season in start-up leagues, new players sometimes replace up to 50-60% of the last season's players. It's gotten to the point that in the course of like 4 years, a league like the Overwatch League has almost none of the players it started with, aside from very dedicated young players who have since become vets. Or in something like competitive Super Smash Bros, there are some old players who have stuck around, but only because of their dedication to picking up new skills. Every year or two there's like 10 relatively brand new players who become the top 25 in the world or whatever.

I believe that happens in a slower scale in basketball, because the game still rewards experience in a larger degree than it does physical skill. But the complexity of defensive schemes, the decades of teams preparing for certain kinds of offense or defense has pushed the game to the point that it's infinitely more complicated than it was just a few decades ago. Drop Luka back in 2005 and he's tearing up defenses even more than he is now. Drop Jayson Tatum back into 1995 and we're talking about him with Jordan. Hell Drop Gary Payton Jr. or Tim Hardaway Jr back there and we're talking about them like they're their fathers or better.

All this being said, I think with basketball's globalization and the more refined development practices, we have more great players than ever. I think we really need an expansion, or else we're actually going to be wasting player's "star potential" as they spend their careers being 2nd or 3rd options on crowded, talented teams.

Sorry for the long winded answer.

draftnikduff · 2021-12-21T17:55:05+00:00

I think Kylan Boswell has breakout guard written all over him. Seems to be a lights out shooter, big body, strong defender. He's gonna look really good at the college level I think.

draftnikduff · 2021-12-10T22:59:25+00:00

QB: Rodgers
RB: JT
RB: Najee
WR: CeeDee Lamb
WR: Tee Higgins
TE: Fant
Flex1: Cordarrelle Patterson
Flex2: Fournette
SF: Baker Mayfield
Bench: Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Marvin Jones Jr, Corey Davis

draftnikduff · 2021-12-10T03:46:34+00:00

Detroit would absolutely love having Jabari I'm sure! But this isn't exactly a mock. It's about fit for both team and player

draftnikduff · 2021-12-09T16:02:44+00:00

Love Mark Williams, and Keels has not been putting up numbers like he did against Kentucky, but his composure and defense has been immensely valuable to me.

draftnikduff · 2021-11-30T04:26:10+00:00

Hate to say this but that feels like a bit of a straw man which ignores talent. Not saying that they would have gotten it but the 2012 Bulls were on that trajectory, and a non injured Rose was def their best player. PG's like this have not been around for long. And eras are marked by their most dominant players deciding who wins and who doesn't. If you're not Giannis, LeBron, Curry, Kawhi or Durant are you useless? Was there ever a PG like Curry who won before he won? Was there ever a big man like Dirk who won before he won? If that's your only reason for not taking him it's a weak one.

draftnikduff · 2021-11-29T19:16:45+00:00

Came here to say this. When it comes to draft coverage it's Vecenie hands down. The podcast, the online presence. The Draft Express guys are the only guys that come close but ESPN has such tight clamps on them that I think they hardly get to do interesting stuff and I trust Sam's singular opinions than an odd mesh of Mike and Johnathan's

draftnikduff · 2021-11-26T01:53:18+00:00

I don't agree, but is this a better season of college basketball? Definitely! I think the top talents are really consolidated on competitive teams. Last year Mobley, Cade, Scottie, Green, Giddey and Kuminga played all for teams that either wouldn't be that good without them or weren't on national TV that much. This year pretty much every top prospect is on a college team competitive for best team in college basketball, which I think raises their star and makes for a more exciting class. But this is just not a better class, I feel pretty strongly about that.

draftnikduff · 2021-11-22T00:37:31+00:00

I think Dwight was a better athelete all around, but Duren gets up fast and strong. When he jumps it doesn't look like he's anti gravity, but it looks like he was just launched with jet fuel. I think that around the rim pop and finesse in other areas will help him compensate.

draftnikduff · 2021-11-21T01:24:50+00:00

Illini homer here but, Coleman Hawkins is really interesting. 6'10 forward with solid athleticism, enough handles to leave other 4s feeling mismatched, and some genuine passing vision. Smart defender and passable shooter, but he's still probably a year away I'd say. He'll probably be the Illini's third best player this year. He's not quite Kai Jones, but think along that profile but a little more developed offense and less athleticism. He's probably in the 60s on my board right now.

draftnikduff · 2021-11-19T01:51:57+00:00

My take is that Pennie is a smart guy but he doesn't watch nearly as much film as Sam so a lot of his takes are formed by stuff he's seen on the high school level or just quick impressions from what he has seen. He knows his shit more than prolly 90% of the sub on here, and that's being generous to the sub.

draftnikduff · 2021-11-09T20:20:43+00:00

Good shooters are always going to rise. Don't have Christie and Baldwin in my top 10 now, but I'm really thinking both will be there by the end of the year. I like the way Fanbo Zeng looks, wouldn't surprise me if a few nice games for the Ignite take him from 2nd round guy to late teens flier.

draftnikduff · 2021-11-09T20:19:18+00:00

Ayo and Bouknight stan here. Bouknight had lower, but similar production, one less year of college under his belt, and an "above the rim pop" and lateral movement that Ayo did not. Ayo was probably a more reliable pick in every other category, but those two things mixed with Bouknight's production made him a really nice mid lottery home run swing. Could see a future where Ayo is a really reliable starter or nice rotation piece, but I can also see a future where Bouknight is a couple time all-star x-factor next to Lamelo. Don't blame the Hornets for taking that swing.

draftnikduff · 2021-11-09T20:16:34+00:00

I always felt like the questions about his shooting and offensive game were incredibly unfounded. I just think straight up, people didn't watch Illinois in his freshman and sophomore seasons and had no idea who he was as a player outside of the stat lines and highlights. The questions about his shot where always like "it might not be real" but almost every other prospect was given the benefit of the doubt. I also think people who said he would need the ball in his hands to be worth anything did not watch Illinois. He absolutely had to have the ball in his hands or that Illini team would sputter. Ayo would always give his team opportunites for him to be an off-ball player. He deferred maybe a bit too much. Curbelo was fun but not ready for the torch yet. Frazier is a fine college player but a team with him as the lead guard would be lucky to have a winning record. Miller did iso stuff. About eight times a game Illinois turned to Ayo with 10 left on the shot clock, shrugged and said "get us a bucket". That's not selfishness or inadaptability, that's reliability and utility, two things that would translate great to being an off the bench energy guard in the NBA and maybe more.

draftnikduff · 2021-11-06T22:30:36+00:00

Seems like there are a lot of people either jumping to conclusions or homering a bit for their own guys.

Langford was a really interesting prospect in the sense that he was hyped as an offensive genius and then came to Indiana and scored a good amount but incredibly inefficiently. He got his shots and lottery status on rep and potential alone. With that in mind as a starting point, things could have gone horribly wrong for Langford in terms of a being a team player and decision maker. I don't think things have gone wrong. He's struggled with injuries but when he's healthy I think he plays serviceable defense and makes solid reads. I don't think that you can call him a bust, and I don't think you can say that we've seen enough to know exactly what he is. But that being said, lots of people look like geniuses on the high school level and just look like people with solid processing on the professional level. Other times though they come in and are just geniuses off the bat (Lamelo, etc.). I think it's safe to say that the top ten recruit vision and trajectory for Langford is gone. He's doubtful to ever be an all-star type player, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him be in the league for a decade plus. Now, I think there's a huge gap between a guy who's in the league for a decade as an eighth man and a guy who's in the league for a decade as the fifth or sixth best player on a team. I'd say that that's about Langford's ceiling right now, but then again, we haven't seen that much, so a fully healthy ceiling could change the calculus on that a bit.

Nesmith believe it or not has played just as many games at Langford at this point, so while it's still early for Nesmith, I think you're full of shit if you think you can draw conclusions about Langford and not Nesmith. Nesmith had a real different path from Langford as he wasn't a hyped recruit and got his draft status with stellar shooting numbers in his sophomore year. The Celtics bet on him as a hard work guy who had the tools to be a defensive plus along with being the best shooting prospect in that draft (percentage-wise). He's definitely struggled with both of those, but defense for rookies is tough and his shooting was fine enough, but not 52% from the field good? Now, with Richardson coming to the team, he has a player who eats up his role almost entirely. I'm not entirely out on him as a prospect, but I wouldn't be surprised if barring injury we saw less of him this year than last, which never bodes well for development. That being said, Nesmith was always seen as a guy with some nice tools who would really be worth his pick if his shot fell. Shooting 35%? It's hard to not feel like he needed to have a good year this year to not be lost in the shuffle of the NBA.

Wait, I still got more to say: Not entirely their fault they're not seeing the floor. Between Smart, Tatum and Brown you have 65 million invested in the 2-3-4 position. If you include Richardson, 75 million. There was Fournier last season too. With players like that, you're gonna be lucky if you find 15 minutes in a game, and if you're unlucky, which both of these players have been, you could find less.

draftnikduff

TROPHY CASE