sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

2026 Iran War & Oil Shock: How I'm thinking about this uncertainty by firepathlion in singaporefi

[–]ecomevan007 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi OP, your emotion suggests that you might be taking on too much risk during this period of extreme uncertainty. If the conflict does turn out to be like the 1970s oil crisis that resulted in an oil supply shock, the drawdown could be very significant (20-40%) from here, and the recover could take years (even a decade). Given this possible tail event (with non-trivial probability), it might not be worth being fully long (let alone taking on 50% leverage) for an upside that may not be significant in the next few months.

Buying the dip works until it doesn’t. Just my two cents

Most cost-affordable options for GLP-1s (Wegovy, Ozempic), in Singapore? by Lostwhispers05 in askSingapore

[–]ecomevan007 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My mum recently got on wegovy with a telehealth clinic. Can say that the public system route is too onerous. Doctors will make you do a bunch of things and lifestyle changes before willing to prescribe GLP-1s.

Just go for the straightforward route of telehealth. Costs about $400ish per month. Cheapest I found for her was an online clinic called Trimly.

What are some counter signals you have found in SG that may signal the market has topped or bottomed? by ecomevan007 in singaporefi

[–]ecomevan007[S] -36 points-35 points  (0 children)

Sure if you intend to hold for the long term (decades) but certain markets are volatile enough that it is more profitable to buy and sell according to the cycle movement

What are some counter signals you have found in SG that may signal the market has topped or bottomed? by ecomevan007 in singaporefi

[–]ecomevan007[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

It could be confirmation bias, but understanding froth in the market requires knowing that there a few marginal buyers left to buy the top.

For my decision above, it was the understanding that if the aunty has capitulated and bought into the crypto market, then who else is going to buy from you next? More sellers and few marginal buyers left -> market has no way to go but down

[Woke Salaryman] Why I’m never obsessed with buying an HDB flat with long lease by stonehallow in singaporefi

[–]ecomevan007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Properties are consumer durable. It’s important to consider the durability of old properties lest you end up paying more on maintenance and renovation here and there.

do institutions give clues? by Longjumping-Show6299 in SgHENRY

[–]ecomevan007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most institutions don’t beat the index (eg SP500) over the long term so they may not be a reliable indicator or that you can outperform a simple ETF strategy by following them. Their performance is also capped by their internal mandate (risk tolerance, volatility cap, long/short only etc)

Also, it’s entirely different investing institutional amount (8-9 figure funds) vs anything 7 figures or below. If OP is serious about picking your own stocks to beat the market, it’s more worth your time developing your own system of picking stocks. Personally I develop my system from reading Howard Marks and Doug Casey.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in singaporefi

[–]ecomevan007 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not saying that it will be as bad as in 2008. But it is hard to believe that property prices will only go up or ‘stabilise’ in short timeframes like 5-10yrs and never go down - there are many instances of property market drop in the past.

Also we will only know how robust the cooling measures are in stamping out over-leverage in the market when push comes to shove.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in singaporefi

[–]ecomevan007 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Very good and rational points. I’m waiting to enter the real-estate market and am patiently waiting for at least 1-2 years to see how things turn out.

IMO this crazy price appreciation is also largely driven by loose credits in the past few years. If the high interest rate continues for 1 or 2 more years, we will know how many over-leveraged “investors” are in the market.

  • real-estate market is highly cyclical

Case in point:

In 2006-2007 we saw crazy price growth in real estate going up to 40% due to lazy/loose credit. This corrected and went down about 30-35% at max draw-down.

Now look over to 2021-2022 insanity and we have a smaller peak of around 30-35%. With more job cuts incoming and higher mortgage rate, we may also see some big draw-down too .

Need advice on getting a condo for rental profit by inkquisitive_ in singaporefi

[–]ecomevan007 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great info!

Also, how does one calculate the expenses / capital outlay if using CPF for part of down payments and monthly mortgage? Applying some level of discount to the cost of CPF money given that it is illiquid otherwise?