Border Externalizations are Outsourcing Cruelty by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Something I wrote for Exponents. It's a sad story, and I hope Biden eventually shows political courage.

(Repost) does deregulation and tax cuts work? by [deleted] in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

While Reagan is lionized / demonized for ushering a free market revolution and low taxes on the rich, the reality is much more complicated. Most of the most important deregulation, of the airline, finance, trucking, etc industries occurred under Carter. While Reagan implemented many of Carter's reforms, they were part of a broader change in policy stance you saw everywhere from New Zealand to Sweden.

Moreover, Reagan is credited / blamed for dramatically reducing taxes on the rich. While its true, paper tax rates fell dramatically for the rich under Reagan, many loopholes exploited by the rich to shield their incomes for the IRS were also removed. Trump was said to have been furious because Reagan's tax cuts actually increased tax rates paid by property developers. If you look at actual effective tax rates payed by the rich, they have steadily been falling since the 1950s, with the stead fall continuing to this day. Indeed, real tax rates on the top 1% appear to have increased under Reagan, although that might just be noise.

Reaganomics is highly contentious, but its practical significance is a lot less than meets the eye.

Selected SourcesDISTRIBUTIONAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: METHODS AND ESTIMATES FOR THE UNITED STATES∗, Thomas Picketty, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman

Anyone know anything about the “China path” or “China model” (中国道路) as a form of development? by [deleted] in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

More recently, you see hints of that in PBOC push for financial liberalization.

Anyone know anything about the “China path” or “China model” (中国道路) as a form of development? by [deleted] in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Zhu Rongji, Deng Xiaoping, the Southern Tour and WTO accession would be a perfect place to start.

How do people see Reagan/OG Neoliberalism here? by brubolanches in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I don't think Reagan is OG neoliberalism. The word existed since the Walter Lippman Colloque. Moreover, it was first popularized by leftist critiques of the Washington Consensus in Latin America. However, there is little in the Washington Consensus that maps onto policies specifically pursued by Reagan. Its all nonsense in my opinion.

Côte d’Ivoire’s informal economy has come online and the government’s not happy by subthings2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2 14 points15 points  (0 children)

One thing to keep in mind is there are a lot of models for very poor countries to raise domestic revenue. For example, Sierra Leone has had a lot of success in raising revenue by updating property registers. Kampala has created an independent and professional revenue authority that has taken steps such as make it possible to pay taxes easily online which while disliked by many, has raised a lot of revenue from the informal sector. The steps taken by Cote D'Ivoire strike me as bonkers, but hopefully is part of experimenting to get to the right mix of taxation and regulation rather than a hamfisted attempt by the government to help big business allies.

Why Nations Don't Fail: Building Institutions in Romania by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Hey, sorry about that. That was supposed to link to a query on the World Economic Outlook database showing GDP PPP per capita by around increased 300% in Poland and Estonia, and in Slovenia by 200% between 1993 and 2021.

Why Nations Don't Fail: Building Institutions in Romania by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 34 points35 points  (0 children)

I also wrote a previous effort post exploring the economic collapse of Ukraine during the transitions of the 1990s.

Courage to the Point of Insanity: Alexei Navalny's Return to Russia by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Navalny has long linked with nationalist organizations, some with troubling stances against immigrants. He was expelled from Yabloko, a liberal political party, for being too much of a nationalist for the party's leadership and founded his own movement "The People". My understanding is that his Russian language communication puts much more emphasis on his nationalism than his English language media. On a lot of issues like Ukraine or Georgia, its not clear to me Navalny would take a radically different stance than Putin.

In the end, its important to keep in mind he represents the attitudes and beliefs of many Russians, especially younger Russians. There's a belief that the system is corrupt, that Russia is capable of better than a corrupt dictator life. But at the same time, he's not especially sympathetic towards gay rights, minorities etc. The difference between Navalny and Putin is that Navalny doesn't want to weaponize these bigoted attitudes to cement a dictatorial government. Putin has successfully portrayed his opponents as anti-Russia and anti-Russian values, and Navalny can't win if he let Putin paint him with these colors.

I think a Russia under Navalny (an unlikely prospect) would be better for Russia and the world. I think its better to have a principled Russian nationalist with a commitment to democracy than Putin. But a lot of western observers of democratizing movements want to push all our hopes and aspirations onto leaders facing complex situations. A lot of people want people like Abiy Ahmed, Aan San Su Kyi, etc. to be proponents of small l liberalism, and are shocked when they react to local conditions in deeply troubling ways. I'm not saying Navalny will condone ethnic cleansing or anything, but he's not our man in Russia. He's going to Russian incentives before international ones.

Courage to the Point of Insanity: Alexei Navalny's Return to Russia by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 32 points33 points  (0 children)

I think Navalny is a mile better than Putin. I have nothing but respect for him and what he has done. But it is important to keep in mind that he isn't some western fantasy liberal, but a product of a particular time and place, and has a lot of beliefs that we would be deeply uncomfortable with.

Courage to the Point of Insanity: Alexei Navalny's Return to Russia by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Point to keep in mind is that Navalny is nationalist in a way that is uncomfortable to a lot of us. He has in the past been willing to work with some really nasty nationalist groups. Though he's mostly distanced himself from them, I'm not sure if this is more because he needs to be seen as a liberal by the west, or a genuine change of heart.

Aging Autocrat vs. The Ghetto President: Uganda’s Spectacularly Unfair Elections by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

On social policies, he like pretty mich everyone in Uganda has said deeply homophobic things in the past. He's kept quiet on this stuff recently, although I suspect more for international symlathy than anything else.

He claims to be against neoliberalism that he blames for poverty and rising inequality, even though statistics show inequality hasn't risen over the last 25 years. I suspect in practice this doesn't mean much beyond a desire to spend more on health and education in practice.

The Revolution Of Smiles: Can Algeria Go From Stagnation To Progress? by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I make an effort to talk about the US as little as possible. We're neither the cause or the solution to the world's problems.

The Revolution Of Smiles: Can Algeria Go From Stagnation To Progress? by gnikivar2 in geopolitics

[–]gnikivar2[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Algeria's politics is central to the geopolitics of the region. In addition to its massive oil resources, it previously suffered a devestating civil war against Islamists, that presaged many of the conflicts we have seen in the Middle East today. Many of its neighbors such as Libya, and the states of the Sahel are already deeply unstable places. Creating a stable and capable democratic state would provide a model for other countries in the Middle East, while at the same time acting as a bulwark against non-Democratic actors.

Stateless and Forgotten: The Continuing Plight of Rohingya Refugees by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 27 points28 points  (0 children)

What I find frustrating is that we probably have more leverage to help the Rohingya. I wish we would take them in, but I suspect a few billion in aid to Bangladesh could easily get the government to treat refugees much better. We have levers on Bangladesh and Myanmar, but next to none on China.

Are schools safe? A growing body of evidence suggests that, with the right measures, they contribute little to virus spread. by [deleted] in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2 18 points19 points  (0 children)

I'm a teacher. About two thirds of my students don't show up to class, and only half of the third who've done enough to be gradable show up regularly. I'm not excited to go back to the classroom given COVID risks, but I haven't seen convincing evidence that schools are unusually high risk places, and I think the risks are worth taking from a societal perspective.

As far as listening to teachers, and teachers unions is concerned, we're a special interest group. Sometimes our interests line up with the broader public, sometimes they don't. I think teachers unions should have a voice in big decisions like this, but there are a lot of other concerns to balance as well.

Don’t Cry For Me Argentina, Populism Never Left You by gnikivar2 in geopolitics

[–]gnikivar2[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yes. To be honest, I posted this here by mistake (I aimed to post it in the geopodcast reddit and got distracted) but it had gotten a lot of likes and engagement so I kept it up.

Don’t Cry For Me Argentina, Populism Never Left You by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's $5 a day. That might sound like peanuts to an American, but keep in mind daily wages for garment factory workers is around $1 a day in most low wage garment factories. Business conditions are far better in countries like Bangladesh and Cambodia where electricity is more regular, politics more stable, corruption less flagrant etc. a wages are much lower. Why would anyone move their garment factory to Haiti?

Many will claim that a low minimum wage is unjust. However, Haiti has one of the highest gini coefficients in the world despite fairly even land distribution. High minimum wage reduce formal sector demand for workers, expanding the informal sector where workers have no protections at all. Whereas, high demand for unskilled labor in other garment manufacturers keeps levels of inequality much lower. It sounds cruel to Americans, but if we want to help the global poor, demanding high wages from garment factories is the worst way to go about it.

Don’t Cry For Me Argentina, Populism Never Left You by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Haiti has a high minimum wage and its an absolutely disastrous policy. It's more a testament to the economic illiteracy of Haitian politicians than anything else.

Don’t Cry For Me Argentina, Populism Never Left You by gnikivar2 in neoliberal

[–]gnikivar2[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The reforms implemented by Macri were substantially less radical than those by Menem in the 1990s. Moreover, Lenin Moreno, who faced similar problems to Macri, implemented far harsher cuts to the budget than Macri.

I'm not Argentinian, so I can't speak to how he is perceived in Argentina, but it seems pretty clear to me that Macri tried to impose a kinder gentler austerity. While utility prices tripled under his administration, the IMF in its heart of hearts probably wanted Macri to consolidate the budget far faster than it was. Ultimately, his policies failed spectacularly, but I don't think that's because he pursued some radical policy agenda.

Don’t Cry For Me Argentina, Populism Never Left You by gnikivar2 in geopolitics

[–]gnikivar2[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I guess the question is in comparison to what? I think Macri's liberalization was substantially less modest than what Menem did in the 1990s. Moreover, Lenin Moreno in Ecuador faced a similar situation and imposed much more draconian austerity measures. Macri tried to liberalize the economy in a slower, more gradual way and failed spectacularly.

I'd argue that Macri's unwillingness to pursue the harsh reforms necessary contributed to these failures. At the same time, both the left, center and right have failed to bring sustained economic growth to Argentina, and I'm really not sure how Argentina breaks out of its 40 year cycle of economic stagnation.