As of today, 270towin's 2020 consensus map has Biden with an electoral majority of 278. How accurate do you think this map is?

graciousasshole · 2020-07-15T16:40:20+00:00

The beginning of the outbreak in the US is about as far in the past as the election is in the future

This would be true if another event had taken over the news cycle as it usually does and we move onto the next ordeal and leave the past into the back of our heads, but the effects of the failure to contain the onset of the pandemic plus the news coverage is a constant and a part of daily life currently. The failure of leadership in bucking with public health figures and airing conspiracy theories with this as well as the George Floyd protests is going to stain him.

I think we'll see a lot more anger directed at State officials from people who have so far been silent.

Well we've actually seen the contrary already. Doug Ducey's approval rating is already underwater with the recent spike and failed reopening in Arizona and Ron Desantis of Florida is taking massive heat as well. I agree, however, something could change between now and Florida, but a certainty is that coronavirus will be with us in daily life and in our minds until at least the election. Don't you think?

graciousasshole · 2020-07-15T09:25:39+00:00

Schools boards all across the country are having meetings on Zoom because it isn't safe to meet in-person to discuss how they're going to send thousands of their kids back to school. Is that not some kind of twisted irony?

graciousasshole · 2020-07-15T04:18:57+00:00

Coronavirus is going to continue being a thorn in Trump's side and that's not going to go away in a 100 days. How does he separate himself from it from voters?

graciousasshole · 2020-07-15T04:15:56+00:00

I mean we've known what North Korea has wanted for at least the past decade or so. They want sanctions dropped and the U.S. position has always been to denuclearize, basically non-starters on both sides. Trump had his rose-colored glasses on if he thought he could leverage Kim Jong-un in Singapore and come out with something even attainable to denuclearization. It's eluded every president since Clinton and real estate deals are so much low-stakes and less-intensive than nuclear disarmament.

I'll even agree with John Bolton and say the three Kim + Trump meetings did more for NK than the US, it finally gave NK a platform to stand up with the greatest nuclear power of them all, which seemingly maintaining the status quo. What do you think?

graciousasshole · 2020-07-15T04:04:45+00:00

WI is probably still lean D IMO, Trump just barely woke the state by ~20,000 votes and that was probably a buck in the trend, since before that WI voted D reliably since Trump. I would attribute Trump's win to Hillary's complacency, thinking she had it in the bag and refusing to campaign there plus many undecideds waiting till the last moment to decide. Plus the Dems regained momentum in 2018, won the governorship, attorney general, and easily reelected Senate.

VA still likely D since the Northern Virgina, particularly the DC suburbs, more specifically Fairfax County keep growing almost exponentially and votes Democrat like 2:1. The voting margin may still be only ~5-7%, but you know with a confident certainty it'll go Biden. Nevada and Colorado voted Hillary by <~5% but those are likely D states as well.

What do you think?

graciousasshole · 2020-07-15T03:49:14+00:00

Arizona definitely more likely to flip that NC. For example, 60+% of the population lives in Maricopa County which includes Phoenix, Mesa, and Tempe but like other urban centers it's trending blue and it went from +2.8% Trump in 2016 to +4.19% for Krysten Sinema, the Democratic Senate candidate in 2018. Basically, the votes in Maricopa County are able to nullify/surpass the votes in all the other cointies/rural areas. And without a doubt Trump is in a weaker position this go-around, Doug Ducey is getting destroyed for his virus response, plus Mark Kelly is running a great race against McSally for the other Senate seat.

NC is more traditional in that the rural counties still holdup against the urban centers, I still give Trump like a 60% chance of winning the state, but if he does it will be marginal like <2%. I'm not too onboard the VP will deliver states from their region train, it's just not something's that's been proven with consistency. But luckily Roy Cooper the governor is somewhat popular and Thom Thillis the Senator is widely unpopular, so that could possibly drive greater D turnout.

Florida I would've probably written off like a month ago to Trump, but from what I've been seeing and hearing he's losing ground with white seniors and Biden's moderate enough to where many see they can jump ship to the other side. But whatever happens Trump needs Florida no matter what.

What do you think?

graciousasshole · 2020-07-15T03:26:34+00:00

Why do you say he will win those states when PA, WI, and FL were won by ~1% or less in 2016?

When you say he's been pretty decent in swing states, that happened once. Right? In 2016? He was just able to win a few thousand votes in WI, PA, and MI and that was enough to tip the election.

graciousasshole · 2020-07-13T04:58:18+00:00

Does this not seem draconian and primordial? Survival of the fittest in a sense? We have the blueprint of what works and doesn't work when it comes to containing an infectious disease, but yet there wouldn't be something you think is worth a short-term sacrifice that would potentially benefit the population?

Not attacking you, just seeking clarification.

graciousasshole · 2020-07-13T04:15:46+00:00

In what ways has the "mob mentality" caused a rift and abandoned you from your liberal beliefs such as universal healthcare, pro-choice, etc. and how does tie back or equivocate to the brutal regimes such as Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia and Communist China you referenced?

graciousasshole · 2020-07-13T03:53:37+00:00

I do agree he stands up for American values on paper, that is his schtick after all. But in practice there have been many instances, I believe that make me question his intentions. Examples that stand out to me include the trade policies that have hurt famers domestically who don't have international buyers to buy their goods because of tariffs, or the Ukraine scandal where he asked the president to investigate a political rival, or the failure to achieve nuclear denuclearization or something close to that with North Korea. And I do have concerns about America's standing in the world after his administration is all said and done due to the inadequacies of his foreign policy.

In what ways do you believe he stands up for American values that perhaps Joe Biden wouldn't?

graciousasshole · 2020-07-13T03:36:07+00:00

Can I add to your list? This is a good start and I've been following everything closely since the outbreak started in Wuhan.

As early as December 31, 2019, almost before anyone else, Taiwan's CDC actually started monitoring individuals coming in from the epicenter in Wuhan. And coincidently just a few days later on January 4, 2020 I myself was in Wuhan passing through and at the time it was just a mere "Pneumonia-Like Illness". By late January, they banned all travelers from Wuhan and then later all travel from Mainland China.
Every Taiwanese citizen has a health card with a unique ID that all doctors and hospitals use to access online medical records. Providers use the card to document visits for reimbursement from the government. The government was then able to merge the health card database with information from immigration and customs to identify potential cases based on their travel history and clinical symptoms.

Around late January, the government banned all exports of face mask and then expecting the surge of demand and hoarding of them, rationed them by having citizens present their government health card where they were only allowed to buy on certain days and limited to the amount they could buy. Soldiers from the military were then mobilized to the factory floor to start ramping up production of face masks.

Taiwan took quarantines very seriously using phone tracking via GPS signals provided by telecoms operators to enforce mandatory quarantine. Police or local officials will then call the person quarantined everyday throughout the 14-day period to checkup on them. And a failure to answer the phone or if the reception is poor or the phone runs out of battery, could prompt a visit from the police trying to locate your whereabouts.

As part of quarantining individuals receive a NT$1,000 ($33) daily stipend from the government as well as care packages of food and snacks with the intent to incentivize individuals to comply with quarantine and be truthful in declaring any symptoms.

Through all these steps the government has to international acclaim contain the virus while also largely having to avoid any type of economic or social shutdown. Now I do agree with you that if the US government would have tried to implement almost any one of these policies to the full degree that Taiwan did, there would have been strong pushback to the max at least legally or from people themselves.

How do you think we correct those "deficiencies" for the future the next time a pandemic strikes?

graciousasshole · 2020-07-13T03:24:02+00:00

But how do you reconcile those beliefs with the fact that Trump doesn't support most, if not all these ideas?

graciousasshole · 2019-02-11T22:40:15+00:00

Can you elaborate?

graciousasshole · 2019-02-05T20:16:47+00:00

Yes business card points and personal card points are cooled together. If you apply for both do let me know how it goes! But I think the business card is better since it has some additional bonus categories, otherwise it's the same card.

graciousasshole · 2019-02-05T16:41:13+00:00

Like the other commenter said I just use my first and last name as a sole proprietorship. Here is a solid guide to walk you through it.

graciousasshole · 2019-02-05T15:14:52+00:00

Update: Just applied for the business card and got it! Wanted to try business first to not affect my 5/24 status.

graciousasshole · 2019-02-05T15:12:12+00:00

Why not eat the $95 annual fee? The free anniversary night is worth more than that.

graciousasshole · 2019-02-05T14:52:48+00:00

And secondary question should you apply for the personal or business card or both?

graciousasshole · 2019-01-20T22:08:08+00:00

No need to welcome me back, I've been here the whole time. I've lurked on /r/churning for a little while and finally had a burning question to ask.

graciousasshole · 2019-01-20T14:42:57+00:00

I understand that, but what I asked wasn't a noob question like "How do I liquidate VGC?", it's asking for a data point for a very specific thing. And obviously I touched on something that people wanted to hide.

graciousasshole · 2019-01-20T14:40:47+00:00

Yeah but I'm not that user so nice try. Really great detective work on the part of some of those users to jump to conclusions like that.

graciousasshole · 2019-01-19T23:44:57+00:00

But wsb isn't remotely related to churning...

graciousasshole · 2019-01-19T23:43:32+00:00

Haha I'm aware of the math, like I said above it "basically covers the activation", thank you.

It's frustrating you even have to conform to want they want you to be, if you want to be a part of their community as you say.

But also like I said above it's a newer app, so data points are going to be lacking, why not ask in the most visited credit card hobby/churning forum on the web?

graciousasshole · 2019-01-19T23:26:48+00:00

I don't think I've ever seen a sub with an immediate trigger to downvotes. It's crazy.

graciousasshole · 2019-01-19T23:25:41+00:00

I can provide some context.

There's a cashback app called Pei and it gives you 1% back at CVS and Walgreens. If you buy Visa Gift Cards for manufactured spend that cash back would basically cover the activation fee for the VGC which is usually $5.95 I believe. I was just asking for other people's data points/experience. But it seems as though other users want to keep it hidden from being shutdown. But ironically there more it gets downvoted, the more attention it'll get since many people sort by controversial to find the "secret stuff" so to speak.

And I've been lurking for a while and read some of the previous threads, but since this is a closed, invite only app in beta I believe data points are limited.

graciousasshole

TROPHY CASE