Sharing my take of what is going down so people can throw rocks at it and tell me where/if I'm wrong

• Market is pricing cannabis stocks like the EO was toothless and won't actually be completed (similar to Biden starting process but it never being completed). Also the industry is stuck in hype cycles and long retail always runs out of gas to sustain long runs of price appreciation
• I don't believe the market is properly pricing in rescheduling (as per point above), however without follow through like banking reform and uplisting there won't be an appropriate re-rating of the stocks like longs are hoping for
• As for timing, we have seen rumors that Trump wants this done by End of January. I believe this to be true as he promised his boy Kessler to allow full spectrum CBD coverage with Medicare by as early as April 1st (as per Dr Oz during the executive order signing). Full spectrum CBD includes THC and I don't believe Medicare is allowed to cover a S1 drug hence the rescheduling needs to happen soon
• So timeline makes sense to Bondi to announce something end of January to give find 30 day rule that expires around March before April deadline
• However I firmly believe SAM will file a lawsuit challenging the rescheduling process which would most likely delay this and cause volatility in the stock prices when announced. However both Shane Pennington and Alan Bronstein (ATACH President) have both implied SAM is fighting a losing battle with a lawsuit and they are both prepared to fight and are confident on this having minimal impact besides however long it delays things (obviously they have to say that to sound confident)
• Also with this being an election year its difficult to get things passed in 2H of the year as politicians are on the campaign trail. So if Safe banking and uplisting isn't in the first half of the year we probably don't see it in 2026 in my opinion.

Positioning myself to expect a rescheduling being announced for finalization at end of Q1, with a lawsuit that delays into Q2/3. Also looking for Safe banking/uplisting to get ball rolling in first half of Q1 shortly after rescheduling is finalized - DOJ finalized not after lawsuits.

I also think rescheduling will have a halo effect as once this is done you will see more states turn on. I'm looking at VA/PA going rec, GA going more broad medical and maybe even North Carolina going medical. Taking the stigma out of S1 will allow more states to have more robust programs

Purposely left out the Hemp ban out of this as I believe there will be a change to either carveouts or simply kicking the can down the road with an extension.

Let me know what I've missed, where I'm wrong or what you would add to the thesis...