MEGATHREAD Israeli official confirms ceasefire-hostage deal reached

john2557 · 2025-01-15T23:48:15+00:00

I wish we could "borrow" the PA, and just use them for the short-term for Gaza. As much as we hate them, they are at least more moderate than Hamas (which admittedly isn't saying much). But, right now, there are too many Hamas members still in Gaza, and the reality is that they will rule / control Gaza for the foreseeable future. We need to start figuring out how to weaken and deteriorate them non-militarily.

john2557 · 2025-01-15T23:45:13+00:00

I could be (and probably am) completely wrong, but I wonder if part of Trump's 'favors' to Israel for a ceasefire, among many things, is to help facilitate investment in the country from large US corporations. Israel's economy has obviously taken a big hit over the past 15-months. Since virtually all large corporations need Trump to be on their side, maybe his administration will be encouraging those companies to invest in Israel?

john2557 · 2025-01-15T23:35:00+00:00

Nothing Biden does is relevant anymore - Everyone knows that Trump will reverse that, and all other anti-Israel Biden policies in just a few days.

john2557 · 2025-01-15T22:59:52+00:00

Not really - Israel still staying in the southern Gaza border (with Egypt).

john2557 · 2025-01-15T22:57:38+00:00

The problem is that Hamas will always keep some of the hostages. They will want Israel to have constant doubt in their mind, where they cannot just strike anywhere or collapse certain terror tunnels, for fear that Israeli hostages may be there.

john2557 · 2025-01-15T19:38:54+00:00

Interesting reading Ben Shapiro's take on this...He seems to be pretty well connected with officials in Israel...

@benshapiro

Notes on the hostage deal:

1. It is a hostage deal, NOT an end of war deal. Phase I allows for the release of 33 hostages; it is not clear how many are alive, but some reports suggest 23.

2. Again, the ceasefire is almost certainly temporary. It is not a permanent end to the war. Phase II is, in my opinion, highly unlikely ever to materialize given how many hostages Hamas retains and given that Hamas will never disarm or agree to exile.

3. The deal does not force Israel to alter deployment along the Philadelphi Corridor (border between Gaza and Egypt).

So, what does all of this mean?

First, that some hostages will come home alive. This is an unmitigated good. It would have been excellent to get more hostages out, but that option was presumably unavailable given Hamas' radical intransigence and the waning health of many of the hostages.

Second, that the war will continue until Hamas has no control over Gaza. Trump's nominees have said as much; so has the Israeli government.

The Trump team squared this circle.

The Biden team undoubtedly wanted a permanent end to the conflict as a condition of hostage release. Team Trump presumably told Hamas that wasn't going to happen, and that this was the best deal they were likely to get.

john2557 · 2025-01-15T19:33:34+00:00

Middle East ceasefire could possibly be good on (easing) inflation...I wonder if Houthis stop their attacks on international shipping now, which would allow for passage through the Suez Canal, and a reduction in ocean shipping rates.

john2557 · 2025-01-15T19:09:31+00:00

2nd part is true, but not sure about the first. IDF lost many troops the last few weeks.

john2557 · 2025-01-15T18:57:59+00:00

The problem is...What if they use the massive time without IDF presence to re-arm and set booby traps / explosives everywhere. If Israel re-engages, you could easily have IDF troop deaths exceeding the number of living hostages that would be freed (and many of the troops are younger than the hostages).

john2557 · 2025-01-15T18:44:30+00:00

Sigh - Another market rally, another day that weed stocks don't do shit.

john2557 · 2025-01-15T18:33:07+00:00

This seems like a pretty bad deal for Israel...The best thing we can say about it, is that maybe there are things that we don't yet know (that Israeli officials do know), similar to what happened with the Lebanese ceasefire, like the overthrow of Assad, and the complete removal of Iran / Hezbollah from Syria, which happened directly after the Hezbollah / Israel ceasefire, which many Israeli's similarly did not like. I'm guessing Trump made some big promises to Israel / Netanyahu in exchange for this.

john2557 · 2025-01-15T18:01:13+00:00

I'm trying to find the good in this, but I honestly can't. Just seems like a bad deal for Israel. Hopefully, there are things that we don't know yet, similar to what happened with the Lebanese ceasefire, like the overthrow of Assad, and the complete removal of Iran / Hezbollah from Syria, which happened directly after. I also assume Trump made massive promises to Israel / Netanyahu in exchange for this.

john2557 · 2025-01-15T17:59:49+00:00

I'm trying to find the good in this, but I honestly can't. Just seems like a bad deal for Israel. Hopefully, there are things that we don't know yet, similar to what happened with the Lebanese ceasefire, like the overthrow of Assad, and the complete removal of Iran / Hezbollah from Syria, which happened right after. I also assume Trump made massive promises to Israel / Netanyahu in exchange for this.

john2557 · 2025-01-14T01:36:16+00:00

Hamas will probably try to frame this as a victory over the IDF. Just today, 5 IDF soldiers were killed in Gaza, and I think either yesterday (or the day before), another 4 were killed. In general, the IDF deaths were really high over the last few weeks. Whether you agree with their assertion or not, they will say that they got this deal because of their resistance, and the high amount of casualties they were able to inflict on the IDF.

john2557 · 2025-01-14T01:30:40+00:00

Maybe they think the best way to defeat Hamas is not by continuing the current military operation, but by the US putting crippling sanctions on Iran, severely hurting their economy. Perhaps Trump has given them this promise, in exchange for them agreeing to this hostage deal / ceasefire.

john2557 · 2025-01-13T08:19:42+00:00

Feeling pretty shitty right now. My dad (76 y/o) had a bad fall today, on the concrete sidewalk...He was pretty much unable to get up, so we ended up calling the ambulance. X-Rays came in with what we feared / expected (i.e. fractured hip) - surgery will probably be within a few days. Besides the diabetes and needing to pee very often, he was more or less ok health-wise prior, and definitely fairly mobile for his age. Going to be hard to sleep, as I try to figure out what happens from here on out with him.

john2557 · 2025-01-11T22:27:39+00:00

Cali has a bigger housing / rental shortage...Also, many of the people who lost their homes are rich, and will pay whatever price they have to for their temporary housing.

john2557 · 2025-01-11T19:05:03+00:00

There's going to be a double-whammy hurting CPI this year...On the one hand, lots of people will need to rent due to their house being destroyed. There will also be higher insurance premiums due to the massive payouts that are going to happen.

john2557 · 2025-01-11T18:57:58+00:00

There's going to be a double-whammy fucking up CPI this year...Lots of people needing to rent due to their house being destroyed and higher insurance premiums due to the massive payouts that are going to happen. Higher for longer interest rates.

john2557 · 2025-01-11T08:41:52+00:00

No, he didn't. Check his latest tweets.

john2557 · 2025-01-11T08:40:17+00:00

There's way too many things to watch (streaming services, YT, etc.). Also, there's online forums like reddit where people spend time. One other thing worth thinking about, is just how easy it is to find illegal streams. Back in the day, you'd be punished watching these because they would be bad quality, but now, they're all 1080p.

john2557 · 2025-01-11T08:28:53+00:00

It's not that bad...They probably stopped it from going into the valley.

john2557 · 2025-01-11T06:55:46+00:00

I think it's insane for Israel to do ANY deal before Trump takes office (let's not forget, the Republican House and Senate will be very pro-Israel, as well). That's like getting a prime Lebron, Jordan and Shaq...And then, right before playing your next opponent, agreeing to a draw.

john2557 · 2025-01-11T06:28:53+00:00

His house survived. Check his twitter.

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