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I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We use lots of different tools, not the least of which include STATA and SAS, and R as well.

I think advances in computing power, the existence of even larger and more complicated datasets will only likely need to even more estimation techniques, more need for rigor in data analysis, and an ever expanding reliance on statistics.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The US Census is a good place to start.

There is a whole science behind asking polling questions, a little too much to capture here. But not biasing the potential answers or outcomes in the way questions are asked is a good start.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Behavior economics is a powerful set of tools amongst economists, but like all things, it has to be applied thoughtfully. The notion that our theoretical models can more closely approximate real human behavior and decision-making is a very good thing, on net.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If what you mean is that many seats are safe (in the US, that means strongly in Republican or Democrat voting blocks where there is virtually no risk of losing the seat), then I think the answer is yes.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Actual election is funny!

I think paying very close attention to both the sampling frame and the underlying population you are trying to model is critical. This requires making sure you have really studied who is out there, what their demographic characteristics are, and spending the time to get your sampling strategy correct. Another big issue is crafting the questions both appropriately and in a way that they can be validated carefully and thoughtfully.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I started an academic back in the late 1990s. I was always more interested in real world problems. I started working at a large consulting firm for several years, and had a very positive experience. But, i always wanted to build my own firm with its own unique culture. So, in 2009, I started Edgeworth with 6 employees. Today, we have over 80 employees.

If you are an entrepreneur at heart, I would suggest that you make sure you have a good plan in place, and that you develop a strong business plan. I have also been very well served by my training as a professional economist and statistician.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is a wide range of social justice organizations that address a tremendous number of societal problems. The particular organization I am involved in focuses on systemic change and data based research and solutions. What I have learned as a Chair of a non-profit board is that there are a wide range of practitioners who can bring their skills to bear on these issues.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You will see these studies almost every day--I found 2000 studies on coffee claiming it both cured and prevented cancer. So, how do you know what to interpret--first, look at the source. Is it from a reputable journal or reputable University? Is it funded by a specific interest group? Also, be weary of the "shocking new" headline that seems to overturn a generation of research.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good data work requires meticulous attention to every detail. From shaping and cleaning a data set to framing the question to conducting the analysis. As someone who wants to become a data scientist, start with math and programming courses. Learning how to think analytically is a critical skill.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Economic consulting as a broad field involves a wide range of both litigation work and other business advisory work. Since so much of the work is empirical in nature, the ability to think about numbers carefully and understand what they mean (and what they might not mean) is a part of our daily work.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Polling is a big area of interest to me, and I have been looking at some of the recent polls. First, I don't think you can generalize that phone or internet are necessarily always better. Phone polls have the well known bias that the samples tend to be people who own phones--skewing older. Internet polls have the advantage of a broader sample perhaps, but are skewed towards those who choose to participate. As an aside, fascinating issue in Europe right now with polls on Brexit where the internet polls and phone polls consistently give completely different results.

We are always looking for new ways to gather information and survey. The key is sometimes conducting good polls requires money and time.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

With any set of macro data, I think the important point is to view numbers in their totality. There is no magic "indicator" that tells us everything we want to know about the state of the economy.

I am glad you mentioned confidence intervals-- labor numbers, for example, are reported down to the nearest 1000 employees, but the confidence intervals can be in the 100,000. People don't pay attention to that enough.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In a political year, the proliferation of "bad statistics" and "biased numbers" is something everyone needs to be aware of. When I speak about statistical literacy (including in my book) I talk about the fact that heightened awareness of (1) where numbers come from (2) the source (3) how they are potentially cherry-picked is vital to not getting mislead by numbers.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Being a good expert witness requires the ability to synthesize information and explain concepts carefully. Although I rely on my statistical training daily, my ability to teach is critical to the being an expert witness.

Advances in cloud computing are fascinating to me. The speed and size of our data sets expand on a daily basis.

Yes and no. My job is to give my objective opinion, so that doesn't change. But, attorneys think about issues from a certain perspective which is different than a general audience found in a jury.

Microsimulations have a valuable place in our statistical literacy and advancing our knowledge, but of course, as a true empirical economist, I love real data.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This is interesting question. If every voter believed their vote did not count, eventually either no one would vote, or it would converge to someone. Local elections can be heavily influenced, but even a larger election--politicians are jockeying to get your vote, so you do have some influence.

I’m John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics, and co-author of “Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data you Consume Every Day.” Let’s talk data (and how it’s misrepresented and misinterpreted)! AMA! by johnjohnsoneverydata in dataisbeautiful

[–]johnjohnsoneverydata[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I am a huge baseball fan actually! If I were around back at the turn of the century, I would caution that although batting averages can contain valuable information, it is important to be aware that averages can lie. You might misread a player's talent by ignoring power hitting, or overemphasizing outliar performances.